ADF Group: Downside Risks Created By Record-Breaking Margins In Abrupt Cyclical Industry

For almost a decade, I held research analyst positions in various investment firms, mostly in Toronto. In the summer of 2021, I left the city and moved in a yurt I built in the boreal forest. I went from living in downtown Toronto to living alone in the woods approximately 100km away from the closest paved road or grocery store.The longer I stay in the woods, the deeper I understand the fundamental role of energy and commodities. Self-sufficiency does not exist, whether in nature or in society. On a personal level, I simply replaced my relationships with grocery stores and utility providers with natural ecosystems, and, ultimately, with God. I did not become self-sufficient. I merely changed on whom I am depending on. Knowing that I am able to fulfill all of my basic needs even when alone in the woods allowed me to replace with love the feeling of anxiety that I had in the city. I now have the deep conviction that I have the capacity to thrive in almost any environment. There is a shock at the beginning, but over time, I learn from my mistakes, and I grow into my new environment. Although my relationship with financial markets changed over time, my passion is still alive and well. I deeply understand the importance of timing when it comes to going against the crowd, as it ran over me a few times before. I am more comfortable on the periphery of a crowd while trying to anticipate where the mass is moving next.The rule is that I am generally too early when entering a trade. For example, I got involved in the uranium trade in early 2015, and the cycle took much longer to turn than I had initially expected. Once the bull run began in 2021, I was out of the trade as my patience got exhausted. Although it is far from being my only mistake of this kind, it is a big one. Getting the thesis right is the easiest part. Getting the timing right is the hardest part. Only when those two variables are combined that big money is made, and only masters of their art can do it. My previous mistakes indicate that I still have much to learn before becoming one of them. My journey on financial markets started when I was 14. After almost a decade in the investment industry and two years alone in the woods, I understand that my journey is spiritual. For this reason, comparing my returns to those of other people or other indices is self-defeating. My only basis of comparison is my former self and nothing else. My goal is to grow as a human being, to make mistakes, to learn from them, and to be better next time. If I can learn something from the mistakes of others, it is a bonus, but it is easier said than done. It is my own mistakes that provided the bulk of my experience.Writing has always been an essential part of my research process. Now that I am independent, I wish to make my research available to everyone, instead of a select group of individuals, as it has been for the last decade or so. This profile should be seen as the personal notebook of a personal life journey. I am not here to teach anything to anyone, I am here to share.I can only guarantee that I will make missteps along the way. If I get something right, tell yourself that I got lucky. I do not recommend anything to anyone, and if you read what I write too seriously, you may end up alone in the woods, so be careful.