Bitcoin Is On Its Way To All-Time Highs Regardless Of Spot Price ETF Approvals (BTC-USD)

There’s always news surrounding Bitcoin (BTC-USD), supposedly accounting for where it’s headed or why it’s up or down. Not long ago, Bitcoin was banned in China, and many thought it was the end of the cryptocurrency, or at least it was headed perpetually lower – how’d that turn out? There were other times when the lead crypto was in the running for new ETFs, and the price did nothing more than fizzle. Now, the latest news is spot price ETFs of Bitcoin – and even Ethereum (ETH-USD) – are on the horizon after the SEC lost a lawsuit where approval of a Bitcoin ETF was the centerpiece. Some are now attributing Bitcoin’s rise leading up to and from here to the ETF ruling. But the fact is Bitcoin has been making headway toward higher highs for months now. News has never made a difference to Bitcoin’s direction.

Forget The News Cycle

It wasn’t long ago – in fact, 2021 – when I described much of what was happening with Bitcoin’s historic rise was due to accumulation, and the news cycle was irrelevant to indicate which direction Bitcoin was headed. It’s no more apparent with the entire fiasco of China banning, then not banning, then actually banning the mining of Bitcoin within the country. The price of Bitcoin couldn’t have cared less. Here’s what I said in that article:

China had threatened to ban Bitcoin exchanges and mining in general as early as 2017. Bitcoin was around $4,000 at the time. Then, when China followed through on those threats in June last year, Bitcoin was about $35,000. When it was all said in done, and China had ordered all things crypto banned, the coin was on its way to new highs at $69,000.

With the hash rate in China near zilch, the crypto was still notching new gains. A little counterintuitive, don’t you think?

If you think you can bet on or bet against Bitcoin based on the logic of the news, you’ll lose quite a bit of money.

And now, the latest news is the pathway to a spot price Bitcoin ETF has finally opened – the long-sought-after crown jewel of mass adoption of crypto investing; buy it in your kid’s account, your retirement account, or your 401(k), the possibilities are endless. And you might say Bitcoin has jumped quite a bit since this news, so the rally must be due to it.

And while it has jumped 40% as of this week since the SEC has decided not to appeal the decision, Bitcoin’s movements were already in motion beforehand – and not on just one technical chart picture either.

The Chart Technicals Were Already Telling You

In the first chart picture, I look at the wave count in Elliot Wave Theory and see the structure had been forming back to late 2022. Since November last year, the crypto made a five-wave-up move to complete wave I. Then most of 2022 has been dedicated to wave II forming. And even in that timeframe, the news didn’t initiate wave III. In fact, the ETF news didn’t show up until after wave 2 of III was complete.

Did the news trigger buying? Sure, there’s no arguing it was a catalyst for the recent move. But this catalyst had no guarantee of going higher, much like the talk many months and years ago for ETFs didn’t facilitate anything material. And just like the China mining ban preceded a massive rally to all-time highs, this news could have started a selloff after years of anticipation of this moment of impending approval.

In addition to this chart analysis, I also like to see accumulation, one of the main points in my 2021 article, which led to further upside to the $69,000 high. And over the last month, accumulation has increased quite a bit.

The point is this recent two-month rally was well telegraphed before the ETF decision news hit the wire. And it should continue on its already mapped-out path toward last year’s high as wave III completes around $70,000 regardless of the news cycle.

But, if you’re still not seeing the big picture, look at the cup and handle pattern I’ve been tracking since the early days of the summer. This pattern has been in play since the $69,000 highs tagged a year ago. Obviously, it couldn’t be seen as a pattern until it formed further, but I noticed it earlier this year, and there’s corroboration between the Elliot Wave Theory pattern targets and the traditional technical chart analysis below.

What this cup shows is it’s targeting the prior highs near $69,000. It may not reach it entirely as cup and handle patterns can look “lopsided” on the cup when complete, but over $60,000 would be considered complete on the cup end of things, give or take a thousand. Then, correlating with the EWT wave IV move, the handle should form, bringing it back to the $50,000 range, depending on where the right side of the cup tops, before breaking the highs. Once the highs are broken, it’ll lead to the target of the cup somewhere between $95,000 and $110,000, depending on where the cup completes, how far the handle retraces, and the breakout point of the handle.

Will Remain Divorced From The Effects Of The ETFs

Some may say this technical chart picture will be due to the added liquidity of spot price ETFs coming online, but Bitcoin may complete most of this rally without a spot ETF ever rolling out to the market. Considering experts don’t expect the first Bitcoin spot price ETF to debut until early 2024, Bitcoin’s rally to $69,000 may have nothing to do with the ETFs.

I mean, how do no new investment vehicles help liquidity or buyers enter the market? It doesn’t, which reinforces the point the catalyst is just that, a catalyst for movement.

News doesn’t correlate to the direction or magnitude of a move. It may trigger a move, but the rest is based on the sentiment already in play on the asset in question. And with quite a bit of corroborating evidence of sentiment already a tailwind for bulls after a bearish 2022, the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 may make history for Bitcoin once again.

Therefore, don’t follow the news; follow the chart. The sentiment of Bitcoin is improving, and while there’s still quite a bit of movement to occur, the path has been laid out.