During 2022, broad markets suffered their worst annual losses since the global financial crisis. Last December, we asked Seeking Alpha analysts for their market outlook for 2023, using the S&P 500 Index as the proxy.
Supported by their qualitative arguments, we invited analysts to forecast where the S&P 500 would close on December 31, 2023. There’s some prize money at stake for the most accurate projections.
2023 Expectations and Performance So Far
Prior to the start of 2023, the consensus view was for modest losses in the S&P 500 index this year.
At the midway point (June 30, 2023), when we last provided an update, it appeared that analysts had entered the year much too pessimistic, as the S&P 500 had roared to a 15.9% first-half gain!
The tide has turned recently, and market optimism has faded amid persistently rising yields (the 10-year UST has increased from ~3.8% to ~4.8% in the past 4 months) and a new geopolitical conflict that most were not expecting. In addition, investors are assessing growth concerns in China.
The S&P 500 has fallen approximately 5.8% so far in the second half of 2023, erasing a chunk of the gains realized prior to July. The index stood at 4193.80 on October 31, 2023, representing now a 9.2% increase since the beginning of the year.
Closest Forecasts At The Current S&P 500 Level
The analysts with the closest end-of-year S&P 500 index estimates, as of October 31, 2023, are as follows:
1) Zoltan Ban, year-end prediction of 4,200 (+6pts)
2) Fountainhead, year-end prediction of 4,151 (-43pts)
3) Christopher Robb, year-end prediction of 4,300 (+106pts)
Even a crystal ball may fog up trying to predict how the year will close for equity markets. There are a lot of potential factors at play.
Once the dust settles, Seeking Alpha looks forward to providing a final tally, a couple months from now, of the 2023 market prediction contest. Prize money to for the 3 closest S&P 500 predictions once we reach the end of the year will be awarded as follows:
- First place: $1,500
- Second place: $1,000
- Third place: $500
Until then, invest well, and be well.
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