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Don’t Sweat Boeing’s MAX Jet Problem. Its Stock Can Rebound.

There is good news for
Boeing
investors a couple of days after a quality problem with a supplier knocked a few dollars off the stock price. Some of it is coming from China.

Boeing (ticker: BA) stock dropped almost 5% on Thursday after disclosing that some holes drilled in the aft bulkheads of some versions of 737 MAX jets didn’t match specifications. The parts came from supplier
Spirit AeroSystems
(SPR).

Shares rebounded Friday, but remain about $5 below where they were before the issue. Shares were up 0.9% in early afternoon trading Monday at $225.35, while the
S&P 500
and
Dow Jones Industrial Average
were both up about 0.5%.

“The 737 aft pressure bulkhead issue…looks less serious than initially feared,” wrote TD Cowen analyst Cai von Rumohr in a Monday report. “The issue only impacts about one-third of current production of MAX 8, 8-200, and 7’s.”

The designations 7, 8, 9, and 10 all refer to MAX sizes. Some of the MAX 7s and 8s have other suppliers. Von Rumohr cut his estimate of 2023 MAX deliveries by 25 units to 415, which leaves it within the range of 400 to 450 Boeing had predicted. If any delays do occur, the jets will be delivered in 2024, he said.

Von Rumohr rates Boeing shares at Buy and has a target of $260 for the price. Citi analyst Jason Gursky rates shares Buy too. His price target is $285 a share.

He too is feeling better about Boeing stock, not because of the bulkhead news, but because of China. “News reports [Friday] state that Boeing is set to resume deliveries to Chinese airlines,” wrote Gursky in a recent report. “This is the second of three important steps in the normalization of the company’s relationship with China.”

The first step was the reintroduction of the MAX to commercial service in China, which happened in December 2022. Now most of the roughly 90 MAX jets in Chinese airline fleets are back in service after two deadly crashes in five months led to their worldwide grounding from March 2019 to December 2020.

The third step is more MAX orders. China has ordered hundreds of MAX jets, but the numbers tend to understate demand because aircraft lessors also provide jets to airlines there.

“We continue to support our customers in China, with more than 95% of their current 737 MAX fleet in service,” said the company in an emailed statement. “For deliveries, we will be ready to deliver for our customers when that time comes.”

Coming into Monday trading, Boeing stock was up about 17% so far this year and about 36% over the past 12 months. Investors are feeling better about commercial aerospace because far more people are flying than during the pandemic.

Write to Al Root at [email protected]

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