A few weeks ago, the makers of the leading Covid-19 vaccines tamped down expectations for sales of this year’s updated boosters, and previewed deep spending cuts in their Covid vaccine operations.
Now, investors are questioning whether those revised outlooks were too bearish. Covid hospitalizations, while still at pandemic-era lows, are rising in the U.S., and the virus is front of mind again.
It’s too early to know whether the increased worry will translate to higher-than-expected sales of the new
Pfizer
(ticker: PFE),
Moderna
(MRNA), and
Novavax
(NVAX) boosters, which should launch in the coming weeks.
Investors, though, seems to be weighing in already.
Moderna
stock is up 18% since Aug. 15, after falling 46% from the start of the year. Shares of
Pfizer’s
partner
BioNTech
(BNTX) are up 14% in the past week, while
Novavax
stock is up 19%. Pfizer shares are up 3.7%.
Moderna and
BioNTech
were up 4.7% and 5.4% on Tuesday, respectively. Novavax jumped 14%, but Pfizer was down 0.5%.
Wall Street experts are skeptical of the stock moves, and aren’t certain that more shots will go into arms.
“To think the current climate will necessarily boost further vaccine use through the remainder of the year seems somewhat hopeful for the likes of the major vaccine companies,” wrote Jared Holz, a healthcare equity strategist at
Mizuho,
in an email to institutional investors on Monday night.
“The MRNA and BNTX moves feel like a short-term trade and very much predicated upon the consistent weakness in both names [year to date],” he said.
UBS
analyst Colin Bristow struck a similar tone last week, writing that the increase in hospitalizations has done “little to change” his generally bearish view on Pfizer’s Covid vaccine and antiviral.
The new attention to the virus is due to an increase in U.S. Covid hospitalizations.
There were 12,600 people hospitalized with Covid the week that ended Aug. 12, fewer than virtually any other point before this spring but still 21.6% higher than in the previous week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Monday. Only Montana and Rhode Island had hospitalizations decrease over the past week.
The increase comes as the companies prepare to launch updated vaccines in the coming weeks, pending approval from the Food and Drug Administration and the CDC.
The variant makeup in the U.S. appears to be a good match for the vaccines, which could help drive more Americans getting the shots. A variant called EG.5 is causing most of the cases. The vaccines were designed to target a variant called XBB. 1.15, which has been fading, but Moderna and Pfizer have both said their boosters work well against EG.5.
A new worry is a vastly different variant called BA. 2.86, which the World Health Organization is monitoring.
“This new variant is as genetically different from Omicron as Omicron was from the original strain that emerged in Wuhan, so this is a highly-mutated variant,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former FDA commissioner and current Pfizer board member, said Sunday on the CBS News program “Face the Nation.”
Putting aside the possibility of a serious spike due to BA. 2.86, the question for investors is whether the current increase in cases could substantially change demand for the vaccine. The CDC hasn’t recommended yet who should take the jab. It could limit its recommendation to older adults. The timing of agency’s recommendation hasn’t been announced.
In a note on Tuesday,
Oppenheimer
analyst Hartaj Singh wrote that if Covid poses more of a threat than expected, Moderna could benefit the most.
“The company (1) is better prepared for the commercial market than a year ago, (2) already has robust clinical data (vs. mouse data for mRNA competitors), (3) has arguably a better mRNA vaccine, and (4) possesses a better mRNA transportation/storage profile,” Singh wrote.
Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at [email protected]
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