Carvana jumps 40% on promise it will return to profitability in Q2

Carvana (NYSE:) stock surged 40% in pre-market Friday after the used-car retailer forecasted a return to profitability in the second quarter.

The embattled company Q1 revenue of $2.61 billion, below the expected $2.66B. Carvana also reported a loss per share of $1.51, better than the expected loss per share of $1.96.

Used vehicle sales fell 25% year-over-year to 79,240 to generate a gross profit per unit of $1,388.

“The first quarter was a big step in the right direction and there are more steps to come. Given our strong start to the year, we expect to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2023. It is clear our strategy and execution are working as evidenced by our 61% increase in gross profit per unit, the best first quarter GPU in company history,” said Carvana CEO Ernie Garcia.

Citi analysts highlighted the improved efficiency and unit economics that have driven non-GAAP GPUs +61% Y/Y.

Wedbush analysts remain cautious on the stock as he argues many benefits are likely transitory, the analyst wrote in a note to clients.

“We look for 2Q23 to be the near-term high water mark for profitability, with adjusted EBITDA reverting to negative levels starting in 3Q23— but still higher than previously forecast… Ultimately, value for the equity is limited unless the company can continue to show a rapid improvement in profitability beyond 2Q23; as we believe this is unlikely,” the analysts wrote.