Moderna sees up to $8 billion in 2023 COVID vaccine sales on private market hopes

By Leroy Leo and Patrick Wingrove

(Reuters) – Moderna (NASDAQ:) Inc on Thursday raised its annual forecast for COVID-19 vaccine sales to up to $8 billion on hopes of a boost in the fall season as sales move to a private market in the United States from government contracts, sending its shares up 6% in premarket trading.

COVID vaccine makers Moderna and Pfizer (NYSE:) are pinning their hopes on private markets sales and strong demand for their new updated shots targeting XBB.1.5 variant to turn around a slump in sales of the products that had bumper growth during the peak of the pandemic.

Moderna expects $6 billion to $8 billion in sales from its COVID shots this year, up from its previous forecast of $5 billion, driven by potential U.S. demand for 50 to 100 million doses in the fall season.

The company sees between $2 billion and $4 billion in the vaccine sales from commercial contracts in the United States and other places. However, it said $1 billion of a total $5 billion in sales from signed government contracts would be deferred to next year.

Pfizer on Tuesday warned that sales of COVID vaccines were uncertain, adding that the COVID vaccination rates this fall should be a good predictor for annual rates. Sales of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine fell 83% in the second quarter.

For Moderna, second-quarter COVID vaccine sales slumped 94% to $293 million, which was still higher than analysts’ average estimate of $233.6 million, according to Refinitiv data.

It reported a net loss of $3.62 per share, narrower than analysts’ average estimate of a $4.04 loss.

Moderna’s quarterly financials were hurt by inventory writedowns and other charges worth $674 million, driven by a shift in product demand to the updated COVID shot as well as a decline in customer demand.