The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, hosted via videoconference on July 4th by India, was Putin’s first multilateral summit since an armed rebellion rattled Russia and comes as he is eager to show the West has failed to isolate Moscow over its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and signifies the disruption of the global order.
A rising China is challenging the U.S.-led liberal international world order. Beijing has introduced new initiatives (the Global Security Initiative and the Global Development Initiative), helped negotiate a peace treaty amongst Middle Eastern rivals (the Iran-Saudi Arabia peace deal), is part of a major regional trade deal (RCEP), and has led the formation of new development banks (Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank and the New Development Bank). Additionally, China has assumed a significant role in establishing multilateral organizations, namely BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
BRICS has recently gained further notoriety with a discussion of Putin potentially joining a summit in South Africa and President Lula calling for the organization to develop its own currency. Although BRICS comprises some of the largest developing economies, the SCO has immense importance as it pertains to power projection in Asia, particularly central Asia. Regardless of the recent leader’s summit taking on a virtual medium, the discussion amongst attendees was of great importance.
According to the SCO’s website, the organization’s goals encompass strengthening member relations, promoting increased cooperation, joint efforts to secure peace and security, and establishing a “new, democratic, just and rational political and economic international order.” This multilateral organization, founded in 2001, membership includes China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan; Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, and Mongolia as observer States; and Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Turkey as “Dialogue Partners.” Therefore, the SCO possesses extensive reach and influence, as these nations collectively represent a significant portion of Asia, contribute to 30 percent of the world’s GDP, and comprise 40 percent of the world’s population.
Prior to the recent leader’s summit, the organization held the foreign minister summit in May. The foreign ministers of member countries met in New Delhi to discuss the agenda for the leaders summit in July. The ministers made special mention of issues relating to security and stability. Hence, Afghanistan was of particular concern. The ministers expressed a desire to restore security in the country and work to rebuild its infrastructure. The ministers also prepared documents to be signed at the leader’s summit, underscored by the New Delhi Declaration.
China’s Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, seized the opportunity to boast about China’s achievements while outlining crucial areas of concern for Beijing and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)— including highlighting key security issues, such as staying vigilant against the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. He also utilized the opportunity to emphasize significant Chinese initiatives, including the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation.
There has also been a push from multiple countries to join the SCO. During the foreign minister’s summit, ascension procedures were completed to allow Iran to join the organization. Furthermore, the procedures for Belarus joining the SCO as a member state were accelerated.
The 2023 leaders summit in India delved deeper into these discussions and pushed for the signing of critical agreements. These heads of state produced these outcomes despite the leader’s summit being virtual, to the surprise of many, unlike the foreign ministers’ and defense officials’ SCO summits. It is speculated that this may be due to a desire to not incur the ire of its Western allies if President Putin of Russia were to enter the country—a similar problem facing South Africa’s hosting of the BRICS leaders summit. Although this decision eliminates the fallout from Putin visiting the country, it also decreases the impact the leader’s summit was able to produce.
During the 2022 Leader’s Summit held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Ukraine was a topic of contention. Prime Minister Modi unexpectedly stated, “I know that today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this.” Tangibly, the summit produced the Samarkand Declaration. This declaration advocated for “commitment to peaceful settlement of differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation,” and the rejection of unilateral military superiority. However, the Declaration made no reference to Ukraine, which is unfortunate because if the SCO is to be viewed as a credible institution by Western institutions it needs to be able to foster a more balanced narrative.
The organization is also currently in a quagmire as China and Russia vie for influence concerning Central Asian leaders. A traditional Russian power enclave, increased Chinese investment, and Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine have seen these States move closer toward China. In May, China held the China-Central Asia Summit in Xi’an. Additionally, China is already the first or second largest trading partner with all of these former Soviet States.
China and Russia also disagree on the framing of the SCO. Russia desires to turn the SCO into a more anti-NATO type of organization and increase its military prerogative. The SCO has held multiple military exercises, including a “joint counter-terroism” exercise in Russia in 2021. However, some in the bloc do not agree with this definition—such as Uzbekistan and China. This idea is accentuated by the China Global Television Network pucoup blishing an article titled “Why is the SCO, not a ‘Rogue NATO’ or anti-Western?” China’s objectives for the organization are more focused on increasing investment into member countries and maintaining stability on its border. China has no vested interest in openly establishing an organization that is explicitly anti-Western.
Due to these dynamics, plus the recent coup attempt in Russia and the seemingly never-ending military campaign in Ukraine, it has made this year’s leader’s summit particularly interesting. Most tangible, the summit produced the New Delhi Declaration. This declaration focused on issuing a joint statement on terrorism and increasing international cooperation across various domains. Notably, although all the SCO members approved joint statements on radicalization and digital transformation, India refused to sign a statement on joint economic collaboration. This most likely is due to China’s reticence to form closer economic ties with China during this period of heightened tensions between the two States.
This summit provided India with a chance to showcase itself as a regional and global leader, building upon the successful visit of President Modi to Washington. However, this was also an opportunity for its geopolitical neighbors to exert their influence. Xi Jinping was able to repeat his attacks on the U.S. for its “power politics,” and President Putin of Russia was able to display strength in the face of the Wagner group’s recent coup attempt. With Kazakhstan taking over for India as chair of the SCO, it will now be responsible for managing these different dynamics. Washington and other governments should not dismiss or ignore developments in the SCO as it has the potential to foster regional development initiatives and enhance economic integration in Central Asia.
Special Thanks to Nathaniel Schochet for his exceptional thought leadership, research, and editorial contributions to this article. Exceptional acknowledgement to Jeffrey Xu for gathering great pictures and for editorial comments and feedback.
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