When people buy things, they often need them shipped. And financial results this week from FedEx Corp., which does a lot of that shipping in the U.S. and around the world, will serve as a proxy for consumers’ spending appetites, as Wall Street debates whether the economy will rebound or slip into recession territory in the second half of this year.
FedEx’s
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fourth-quarter results are due Tuesday. The financials will likely be a story of waning package demand yet rebounding share prices, as the delivery service’s executives wage a multi-billion dollar cost-cutting campaign to recharge profits and keep investors from bailing.
Investors in September did, in fact, bail, after the company warned of faltering demand for package shipments. While shares took a big hit then, they’ve moved steadily higher, as FedEx shrinks its executive ranks, consolidates its business segments, cuts flights, parks jets and makes plans to close offices—all in an effort to slash some $4 billion in costs by the end of its fiscal 2025. FedEx is calling that cost-cutting program “DRIVE.”
Cowen analyst Helane Becker, in a research note this month, said she’d be on the lookout for detail on the cost-cutting plans, its outlook for shipping volumes and prices, as well as services geared toward businesses. Still, for the quarter, she said she expected weaker shipping demand.
“Cargo volumes continued to be down on a (year-over-year) basis,” Cowen analyst Helane Becker said in a research note this month. She added: “we believe FedEx likely canceled some flights between Asia and Europe and Asia and the U.S. during the quarter when volumes were particularly low.”
Higher prices for groceries and gasoline over the past year have hurt demand for other purchases. Elsewhere, Stephens analyst Jack Atkins, in a note on Wednesday, said he expected a “solid” quarter for FedEx, but he raised questions about the company’s full-year outlook.
He said that “there remains considerable uncertainty about the company’s guidance for FY24 as investors contemplate the potential impact of a looming recession as well as company-specific factors like the timing of incentive compensation accruals vs. the cost savings from DRIVE and FDX’s other expense initiatives.”
The call to put on your calendar
Furniture after the pandemic: During the pandemic, people working from home who had the money threw themselves into home-renovation projects, redoing rooms and overhauling their furniture arrangements. That was good for La-Z-Boy Inc., which makes sofas, office chairs and other home goods. But it could only last so long, and people can only buy so much furniture, and Wall Street expects a continued drop in sales when the company reports Tuesday. Still, Chief Executive Melinda Whittington, during a conference in March, said La-Z-Boy’s
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upper middle-income customers, unintimidated by inflation, were still buying — buying bigger homes, or second homes, or relocating to the suburbs, and working from home more. “We’re seeing that consumers (are) still investing in their home,” she said.
The number to watch
Winnebago, RV sales and the demand bottom: Like furniture, two years ago RV demand was booming. Today, it isn’t, after people, despite any renovation inspiration, splurged on RVs in an effort to get out of the house during the pandemic. When RV maker Winnebago Industries Inc.
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reports on Wednesday, executives could offer more sense of where the floor is for falling RV demand. D.A. Davidson analysts this month pointed to a “slight improvement” for RV retail sales in May when compared to April. What’s more, Winnebago also makes boats, and gains there could help counterbalance weaker sales for its RVs, the way they did in its last round of results, potentially providing more context on who is taking to the great outdoors and how.
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