Home prices still look weak compared to a year ago—but have started to perk up this spring.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index measuring price changes nationally increased in March by 0.7% from the year prior—the smallest such gain since May 2012. Home prices in Case-Shiller’s 20-city index fell 1.15%—the first such loss since May 2012 and the steepest since April 2012, according to data released Tuesday.
The 20-city decline was shallower than economists had expected, according to
FactSet.
Consensus estimates had pegged the drop in the index at 2.5%.
On an annual basis, prices in Seattle, San Francisco, and San Diego fell the most, dropping 12.4%, 11.2%, and 5.3% from the year prior. Those in Charlotte, Tampa, and Miami gained the most, increasing 4.7%, 4.8%, and 7.7% from the year prior.
“One of the most interesting aspects of our report continues to lie in its stark regional differences,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “The farther west we look, the weaker prices are, with Seattle (-12.4%) now leading San Francisco (-11.2%) at the bottom of the league table.”
The year-over-year drop likely has more to do with the housing market at this time last year, which remained hot, than any recent correction in prices. Home prices in the national index increased 0.4% after seasonal adjustment, while the those in the 20-city index gained 0.5%—the greatest such increases since May 2022. FactSet consensus estimates had expected a 0.4% decline in the 20-city index.
“Two months of increasing prices do not a definitive recovery make, but March’s results suggest that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 may have come to an end,” Lazzara said. “That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months.”
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices in Detroit and New York rose the most from the month prior, gaining 1.4% and 1.1% from the month prior. San Diego, Calif., and Minneapolis closely followed, both gaining 1%. Those in Seattle fell the most, dropping 0.9% in the same period. Prices in Las Vegas and Phoenix were next, with prices in both indexes falling 0.4%.
Write to Shaina Mishkin at [email protected]
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