Tesla
investors are given to bouts of euphoria and anguish, but they are feeling good these days.
Tesla
stock (ticker: TSLA) was up again Tuesday, putting it on pace for its sixth consecutive rise. Shares have risen about 15% over that span, while the Nasdaq Composite has risen about 3% over that period. The electric-vehicle pioneer’s gigafactory in Austin could be helping sentiment.
The stock’s gains kicked off about a week ago, when Elon Musk recommitted to his leadership role at Tesla. Since Musk closed on his purchase of Twitter in late October—selling billions in Tesla stock along the way—Tesla investors have consistently expressed dismay at both the sales and the amount of time Musk spent at Twitter. With the hiring of new Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino now complete, Musk said at Tesla’s May 16 annual meeting of shareholders that Twitter would take a lot less of his time going forward.
Shares rose the day of the meeting, jumped 4.4% the next session, and just haven’t stopped climbing since. Tesla stock rose 0.4% in recent trading. In comparison, the
S&P 500
and
Nasdaq Composite
were both down about 0.3%.
On Tuesday, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch reviewed his tour of Tesla’s Austin Gigafactory in a research report. (Tesla calls its plants gigafactories.) He was impressed.
“With Austin production clearly accelerating from [March] Analyst Day levels, we see Tesla investing in important innovations to enabling scaling, increased simplicity, and geopolitical derisking of its supply chain,” wrote Rusch.
All that is positive for growth and margins in the future. Tesla has also broken ground on its own lithium refining operation. Most lithium, a key component in lithium ion batteries, is refined in China today.
Efforts “continue to be well ahead of peers,” added the analyst, who isn’t a Tesla bull either. Rusch rates shares Hold and doesn’t have a price target. A Hold rating for him means he expects Tesla to perform in line with the broader stock market.
Investors also got some information from China. Citi analyst Jeff Chung reviews insurance registration in China to get a sense of how EV sales are trending. The data imply that Tesla sold 10,200 cars in China between May 15 and May 21.
It’s only one week of data, but 10,000 units a week is about 500,000 units a year. The Tesla plant located in Shanghai can produce about 18,000 vehicles a week. Tesla also ships cars to Europe from China, so it’s difficult to get a feel for total production and demand in China based on limited data.
Overall, Chung expects May EV sales to be flat after a big jump in April. For the full year, he expects Chinese EV sales to be up about 30%. China is the largest market for new cars and new EVs. About 4.6 million battery electric vehicles were sold in China in 2022, compared with about 810,000 sold in the the U.S.
Tesla stock could also be up simply because it is volatile. Tesla’s stock gyrations are something to behold: The stock’s 52-week high is about $315 a share, while it’s low is roughly $100. That $215 difference, or spread, between the high and the low is more than 100% of the current stock price of $191.
In comparison, the spread for
Apple
(AAPL) stock is closer to 30% of share prices. The spread for
Meta Platforms
(META), another megacap company that has seen volatile trading is about 67% of the current stock price.
Tesla stock is close to as volatile as large stocks can be.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
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