{"id":974,"date":"2023-04-27T11:12:58","date_gmt":"2023-04-27T15:12:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/house-price-index-up-and-consumer-confidence-falls-before-crucial-fed-interest-rate-decision\/"},"modified":"2023-04-27T11:12:59","modified_gmt":"2023-04-27T15:12:59","slug":"house-price-index-up-and-consumer-confidence-falls-before-crucial-fed-interest-rate-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=974","title":{"rendered":"House Price Index Up And Consumer Confidence Falls Before Crucial Fed Interest Rate Decision"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The U.S. Housing Price Index rose by 0.5%, but it was expected to fall by 0.2%<\/li>\n<li>Consumer confidence dipped to a nine-month low as the jobs market bites<\/li>\n<li>Economic data continues to paint a mixed picture for the Fed, whose interest rates decision will be announced at the start of May<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>House prices jumped unexpectedly and consumer confidence continued to fall, making the Fed\u2019s impending interest rate decision a bit harder as the mixed data baffles analysts and investors.<\/p>\n<p>Ahead of a key announcement from the Fed due in just a few days, these are some of the last pieces of data we\u2019ll see on the economy\u2019s health before the big decision is made. We\u2019ve got the analysis of what the data shows, how it fits into the wider landscape and what the Fed might be thinking right now.<\/p>\n<p><em>Ready to take your investing to the next level with AI? Q.ai\u2019s <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/foundation-investment-kits?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Foundation Kits<\/em><em> all benefit from a supercharged AI algorithm that hunts down the best deals on the market to help you capitalize without the upfront work. From tech to global trends and clean energy, there\u2019s a Kit to suit all personalities and risk appetites.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Each Foundation Kit can access Q.ai\u2019s <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/portfolio-protection?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Portfolio Protection<\/em><em> feature, where the AI algorithm becomes like your own personal hedge fund manager. It deploys sophisticated hedging strategies after analyzing your portfolio for any weaknesses to help you keep more of your returns in your pocket.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/refer.tryq.ai\/xTzA58Zqkzb\">Download Q.ai today<\/em><em> for access to AI-powered investment strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What\u2019s the latest economic data?<\/h2>\n<p>As soon as you think you can predict what might happen in the economy, a new curveball arrives. This time, it was house prices.<\/p>\n<p>February\u2019s housing market data from the US Federal Housing Finance Agency came in hotter than expected. House prices rose by 0.5% for the month when they were predicted to fall by 0.2%. Compared to January\u2019s data, where there was a 0.1% increase, the housing market has unexpectedly accelerated.<\/p>\n<p>Another key housing data set, the S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, painted a similar scene. The index rose 2% for national house prices compared to last year, the slowest growth rate since 2012, but monthly prices increased by 0.2%, breaking a seven-month decline streak and up from January which saw a 0.2% fall.<\/p>\n<p>What does this mean? It\u2019s good news for anyone trying to sell their home at the moment, especially as spring is a traditional house-selling bonanza, but housing is one of the key inflation drivers. If we\u2019re still seeing house price growth, it could dampen the Fed\u2019s plans to drive down inflation.<\/p>\n<p>As for consumer confidence, the Conference Board said its index fell to a nine-month low of 101.3 in April, down from 104.0 in March. Analysts had predicted the April figure would stay the same. It\u2019s the third time it\u2019s fallen since the start of the year as fears of an impending recession and declining jobs market have American households tightening their belts.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s yet another mixed picture &#8211; and we don\u2019t envy the Fed right now.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How does the other data look?<\/h2>\n<p>Last week\u2019s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index revealed a worse-than-expected outlook for the sector, dropping -31.3 instead of the anticipated -19.2. Treasury yields fell at the news, as it signaled a deeper economic contraction than previously thought.<\/p>\n<p>As for the jobs market, unemployment claims have been rising in the last few weeks. The week ending 15 April saw claims reach the 245,000 mark, up 5,000 from the week before. However, monthly unemployment data remains historically low, hitting 3.5% in March.<\/p>\n<p>There was a further sign of resilience in the economy with new data from the Commerce Department showing demand for long-lasting consumer goods like appliances and computers still being in demand, despite a fall in business spending on these items.<\/p>\n<p>As for the Fed\u2019s battle against inflation, the March figures showed signs it was slowly winning the fight. Inflation rose 5% on a yearly basis, down from the 6% seen in February. There are also signs the amount of money in circulation is drying up: data for M2, which measures money supply, showed a -4.05% growth rate compared to the previous year, a record decline for the index.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve got two more pieces of data due this week: the latest GDP update on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditure price index due on Friday. The latter is the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, so it could all but cement its decision on what to do in May.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision looms<\/h2>\n<p>These latest two data sets are some of the last the Fed will see before their meeting on whether interest rates should go up by another quarter point or stay the same. There\u2019s been a lot riding on these meetings of late, as rampant inflation has stubbornly persisted, but now all eyes will be on whether it\u2019s time to price in some interest rate cuts by the end of the year or not.<\/p>\n<p>The housing data was a surprise amid an otherwise sluggish market. Interest rate increases have made mortgages more expensive, and banks have tightened their lending criteria.<\/p>\n<p>March mortgage data showed a 10% fall in home purchase applications, but inventory is still relatively low, buoying house prices. As for consumer confidence, it was bang in line with what we\u2019re seeing happen on the jobs front.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed needs to be careful. First Republic\u2019s Q1 earnings reported a 40% drop in deposits, as a direct result of the banking crisis last month. Further interest rate hikes could pressure the already struggling regional banking sector, or even trigger another Silicon Valley Bank-style bank run.<\/p>\n<p>Investors anticipate a quarter-point interest rate hike with no further rises for the rest of the year. There\u2019s no consensus on whether we might begin to see interest rates cut by the time 2024 arrives, but it\u2019s not off the table.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">The bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>As always, the data needs context. House prices are up, but mortgage lending is still down, thanks to higher interest rates. Consumer confidence falling is a good thing for the long-term fight against high inflation, even if households feel the pinch and unemployment figures are rising.<\/p>\n<p>But the final decision lies with the Fed, who must balance the financial sector\u2019s health with cooling inflation off further. It\u2019s likely the Fed wants to give inflation a final whack on the head and then let the consequences of its actions play out, but with the data still so murky, there\u2019s room for a surprise on the cards.<\/p>\n<p><em>Worried about inflation eating into your portfolio? Q.ai has a specially designed <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/inflation-kit?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Inflation Kit<\/em><em> to help put your mind at ease. The Kit is like a firewall against the inflating dollar, with a powerful AI algorithm hedging against inflation risks while investing in ETFs that are performing well. You can diversify your portfolio while the AI helps you stay one step ahead.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>If you\u2019re interested in other low-risk investment options, Q.ai\u2019s <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/inflation-kit?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Global Trends<\/em><em> is a neat option for those looking for worldwide exposure. The AI finds the stocks, bonds and other assets that are set to perform and weights them accordingly each week. It\u2019s like having a hedge fund manager at your fingertips.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/refer.tryq.ai\/AQqVrR3qkzb\">Download Q.ai today<\/em><em> for access to AI-powered investment strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/qai\/2023\/04\/26\/house-price-index-up-and-consumer-confidence-falls-before-crucial-fed-interest-rate-decision\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key takeaways The U.S. Housing Price Index rose by 0.5%, but it was expected to fall by 0.2% Consumer confidence dipped to a nine-month low as the jobs market bites Economic data continues to paint a mixed picture for the Fed, whose interest rates decision will be announced at the start of May House prices [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>House Price Index Up And Consumer Confidence Falls Before Crucial Fed Interest Rate Decision | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Key takeaways The U.S. Housing Price Index rose by 0.5%, but it was expected to fall by 0.2% Consumer confidence dipped to a nine-month low as the jobs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=974\" 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