{"id":9632,"date":"2023-05-16T18:20:57","date_gmt":"2023-05-16T22:20:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/truecar-faces-fierce-competition-as-u-s-car-market-consolidates-nasdaqtrue\/"},"modified":"2023-05-16T18:20:58","modified_gmt":"2023-05-16T22:20:58","slug":"truecar-faces-fierce-competition-as-u-s-car-market-consolidates-nasdaqtrue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=9632","title":{"rendered":"TrueCar Faces Fierce Competition As U.S. Car Market Consolidates (NASDAQ:TRUE)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture><\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2>A Quick Take On TrueCar<\/h2>\n<p>TrueCar (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NASDAQ:TRUE<\/span>) Q1 2023 financial results on May 8, 2023, missing both revenue and EPS consensus estimates.<\/p>\n<p>The firm connects buyers of new or used automobiles with dealer sellers in the<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> United States.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Given the fierce competition TRUE faces, a still-high cost of capital environment, and reduced consumer demand as macroeconomic conditions slow, I&#8217;m Neutral [Hold] on TrueCar for the near term.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">TrueCar Overview<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Santa Monica, California-based TrueCar was founded in 2005 to enable consumers to research and purchase cars via its online marketplace.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The company also provides online services to its network of automobile dealers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The firm is headed by President and CEO Michael Darrow, who was previously Chief Sales Officer at Edmunds.com and Executive Director of Corporate Strategy at Nissan Motor Corporation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The company&#8217;s primary offerings include the following:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For Consumers:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Pricing research<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Buying assistance<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Financing<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For Dealers:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Online lead generation<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Pricing transparency<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Marketing and advertising<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The firm acquires consumers via online marketing and partnerships and pursues dealer relationships through its direct sales and marketing efforts.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">TrueCar&#8217;s Market &amp; Competition<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">According to a 2022 market research report by Mordor Intelligence, the U.S. market for used automobiles was estimated at $196 billion in 2021 and is forecast to reach $302 billion by 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This represents a forecast CAGR of 7.51% from 2022 to 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">An important driver for this expected growth is a return to normalcy after supply chain shocks as a result of the pandemic and other factors.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">However, a rising interest rate environment has reduced automobile affordability for certain consumers, leading to variability in demand and price in recent months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Major competitive or other industry participants include:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Cars.com (CARS)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CarMax (KMX)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CarGurus (CARG)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CarBravo<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>AutoNation<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>AutoTrader.com<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>KBB.com<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Edmunds.com<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CarsDirect.com<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CarFinder.com<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company also connects consumers with dealers of new cars.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">TrueCar&#8217;s Recent Financial Trends<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Total revenue by quarter has dropped per the following chart:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16842536806447678.png\" alt=\"Total Revenue\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Total Revenue (Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Gross profit margin by quarter has remained largely flat:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-1684253680569285.png\" alt=\"Gross Profit Margin\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Gross Profit Margin (Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Selling, G&amp;A expenses as a percentage of total revenue by quarter have risen markedly in recent quarters:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16842536807779648.png\" alt=\"Selling, G&amp;A % Of Revenue\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Selling, G&amp;A % Of Revenue (Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Operating losses by quarter have worsened more recently:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-1684253680800275.png\" alt=\"Operating Income\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Operating Income (Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Operating leverage by quarter dropped sharply in Q1 2023:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16842536808613179.png\" alt=\"Operating Leverage\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Operating Leverage (Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Earnings per share (Diluted) have remained heavily negative in recent quarters:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16842536808778074.png\" alt=\"Earnings Per Share\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Earnings Per Share (Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">(All data in the above charts is GAAP)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In the past 12 months, TRUE&#8217;s stock price has fallen 27.51% vs. that of CarGurus&#8217; (CARG) drop of 21.5%, as the chart indicates below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-1684253681360539.png\" alt=\"52-Week Stock Price Comparison\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">52-Week Stock Price Comparison (Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For the balance sheet, the firm ended the quarter with $156.6 million in cash and equivalents and no debt.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Valuation And Other Metrics For TrueCar<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Measure [TTM]<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Amount<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ Sales<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>0.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ EBITDA<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>NM<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Price \/ Sales<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>1.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Revenue Growth Rate<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-26.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Net Income Margin<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-81.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>EBITDA %<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-46.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Market Capitalization<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$194,400,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$59,560,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Operating Cash Flow<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-$29,140,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Earnings Per Share (Fully Diluted)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-$1.40<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">(Source &#8211; Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As a reference, a relevant partial public comparable would be CarGurus; shown below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Metric [TTM]<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>CarGurus<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>TrueCar<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Variance<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ Sales<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>1.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>0.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-71.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ EBITDA<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>14.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>NM<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&#8211;%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Revenue Growth Rate<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>20.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-26.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&#8211;%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Net Income Margin<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>18.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-81.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&#8211;%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Operating Cash Flow<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$229,390,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-$29,140,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&#8211;%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">(Source &#8211; Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Commentary On TrueCar<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In its last earnings call (Source &#8211; Seeking Alpha), covering Q1 2023&#8217;s results, management highlighted growth in its new car dealers, but a drop in used car dealers as consolidation continued to hit the used car dealership space due to lack of inventory over the past several quarters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Additionally, the rising interest rate environment has affected automobile demand and smaller, independent dealers have been hard hit by the rising cost of floor inventory financing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">On the plus side, management reported a 19% increase in consumer website traffic and wants to enhance its conversion efforts among consumer categories such as economic buyers, convenience buyers and EV (Electric Vehicle) buyers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In the coming months, leadership expects to expand its TrueCar+ offering to key metro areas in ten more U.S. states.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Total revenue for Q1 2023 dropped 14.9% year-over-year and gross profit margin rose 0.7 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Selling, G&amp;A expenses as a percentage of revenue grew 12.4 percentage points, pointing to worsening efficiency, and operating losses also increased by more than 50% year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Looking ahead, consensus estimates put 2023 revenue growth at only 0.26% and earnings per share of negative ($0.48), indicating a continued dismal environment for the firm in the near future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company&#8217;s financial position is moderate, with ample liquidity and no debt, but TRUE is still burning a significant amount of free cash, so management will need to reduce its cash burn to extend the company&#8217;s runway.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">And this is at a time when the company needs to continue to improve its offerings and benefits to retain dealers, as other online marketplaces are doing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Regarding valuation, the market is valuing TRUE at significantly lower valuation multiples than those of CarGurus.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">From management&#8217;s most recent earnings call, I prepared a chart showing the frequency of key terms mentioned (or not) in the call, as shown below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-1684253681933842.png\" alt=\"Earnings Transcript Key Term Frequency\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Earnings Transcript Key Term Frequency (Seeking Alpha)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I&#8217;m most interested in the frequency of potentially negative terms, so management cited &#8216;Challeng[es][ing]&#8217; two times.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The negative terms refer to the difficult operating environment TRUE finds itself in as a result of the upheaval in the new and used car industry in recent years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">A potential upside catalyst to the stock could include a material drop in financing costs, which would help independent dealers, but I don&#8217;t see this occurring anytime soon.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Given the fierce competition TRUE faces, a still-high cost of capital environment, and softening consumer demand as macroeconomic conditions slow, I&#8217;m Neutral [Hold] on TrueCar for the near term.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4605209-truecar-faces-fierce-competition-us-car-market-consolidates?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Quick Take On TrueCar TrueCar (NASDAQ:TRUE) Q1 2023 financial results on May 8, 2023, missing both revenue and EPS consensus estimates. The firm connects buyers of new or used automobiles with dealer sellers in the United States. Given the fierce competition TRUE faces, a still-high cost of capital environment, and reduced consumer demand as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9633,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-9632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>TrueCar Faces Fierce Competition As U.S. Car Market Consolidates (NASDAQ:TRUE) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A Quick Take On TrueCar TrueCar (NASDAQ:TRUE) Q1 2023 financial results on May 8, 2023, missing both revenue and EPS consensus estimates. 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