{"id":9534,"date":"2023-05-16T14:09:04","date_gmt":"2023-05-16T18:09:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/its-a-big-day-for-the-debt-ceiling-and-banks-brace-for-uncertainty\/"},"modified":"2023-05-16T14:09:06","modified_gmt":"2023-05-16T18:09:06","slug":"its-a-big-day-for-the-debt-ceiling-and-banks-brace-for-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=9534","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s a Big Day for the Debt Ceiling and Banks. Brace for Uncertainty."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Two of the major risks facing the U.S. economy\u2013the debt ceiling and banking turmoil\u2013are set to be tackled head on in Washington Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s plenty of uncertainty around but markets will be hoping for some clarity on a potentially significant day ahead.<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>As the June 1 debt ceiling deadline, reiterated by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday, looms ever closer, President Joe Biden meets with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy Tuesday in a bid to break the deadlock.<\/p>\n<p>With a lack of progress so far, and Biden set to leave for a G-7 meeting in Japan Wednesday, markets will want to see positive signs from the meeting. Investors may not quite believe a debt default is coming, but there\u2019s still nervousness around\u2013the yield on the short-dated U.S. one month T-bill rose to fresh highs above 5.5% Monday.<\/p>\n<p>If Republicans and Democrats remain \u201cfar apart,\u201d after the meeting, as McCarthy says they currently are, market concerns may deepen. <\/p>\n<p>Investors will also be watching events in Washington for insight into how the recent banking stress played out, and whether it is over. Former executives of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank face questions from senators on the failure of those banks.<\/p>\n<p>Ex-SVB Chief Executive Gregory Becker cited the rapid pace of interest rate hikes as a factor in his written testimony. Banking regulators will also tell the story from their point of view in front of the House Financial Services Committee.<\/p>\n<p>The role of rate hikes in the collapses brings another uncertainty in focus\u2013the Federal Reserve\u2019s monetary policy path. A number of Fed officials made the case Monday for high-for-longer rates to bring down inflation, while traders now see a 20% chance of another hike in June. <\/p>\n<p>Uncertainty on that front, at least, will stick around for a long time yet.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Callum Keown<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>*** Join Barron\u2019s associate editor for technology Eric Savitz today at noon when he speaks with Brook Dane, tech fund manager at<br \/>\n        Goldman Sachs<span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       about the outlook for technology stocks. Sign up here.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Try your hand at this morning\u2019s Barron\u2019s Daily crossword puzzle and sudoku games. For all games, including a digital jigsaw based on the week\u2019s cover story, click here.<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>Ex-Silicon Valley, Signature Bank Execs Face Senate Panel<\/h2>\n<p>Former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Gregory Becker will tell a Senate panel today that rapid interest-rate increases and media coverage played a central role in the bank\u2019s collapse in March. He will say he never envisioned the velocity and magnitude of the run on deposits that caused its failure.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      Becker, along with Signature Bank\u2019s co-founder and former chairman Scott Shay, and Signature\u2019s former President, Eric Howell, are scheduled to testify to the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. Eastern time. Lawmakers will <strong>likely question<\/strong> their risk management and business concentrations and actions before the failures.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      SVB was <strong>caught off guard<\/strong> by the Federal Reserve\u2019s signals on interest rates, buying up government securities when rates were low then getting stuck with declining values on those holdings when rates began rising sharply starting last year, Becker\u2019s written testimony said.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      The failures of SVB, Signature Bank, and later First Republic Bank sent shock waves through the banking sector and caused <strong>a sharp selloff<\/strong> in shares of regional banking companies considered vulnerable should depositors panic and move their money to bigger banks.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler said Monday that the agency <strong>isn\u2019t considering a temporary ban<\/strong> on short selling of stocks in troubled regional banks, because history shows that such policies don\u2019t work to prevent panic selling.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Becker and Shay also testify to the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. Wednesday, along with state banking regulators from New York and California.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Janet H. Cho and Liz Moyer<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>Wells Fargo to Pay $1 Billion to Settle Lawsuit<\/h2>\n<p>\n        Wells Fargo<br \/>\n       has agreed to a $1 billion settlement over a class-action lawsuit about its progress in recovering from its 2016 fake-accounts scandal, The Wall Street Journal reported. <\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      The shareholder lawsuit alleged Wells Fargo and former leadership misrepresented how quickly the bank had moved to tackle the scandal, subsequently <strong>weighing on its share price<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      A preliminary settlement was set out in a court filing Monday night and still <strong>needs to be approved<\/strong> in the coming months, the Journal said.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      A Wells Fargo spokeswoman told the WSJ the bank <strong>disagreed with the allegations<\/strong> but was pleased to have resolved the issue. Wells Fargo didn\u2019t immediately respond to a request for comment from <em>Barron\u2019s<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> The Federal Reserve put a $1.95 trillion limit on Wells Fargo\u2019s assets in 2018, which leaves it lagging in size behind JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and<br \/>\n        Citigroup<span>.<\/span><br \/>\n       If Wells Fargo could clear the overhang of the fake-accounts scandal and get the asset cap removed, it could become a more active participant in banking industry consolidation in the U.S.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Adam Clark<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>Federal Reserve Officials See Rates Remaining High in 2023<\/h2>\n<p>In contrast to the market\u2019s expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut its benchmark interest rate later this year, ahead of a potential sharp economic slowdown and possible recession, central bank officials signaled they see rates staying high and possibly even rising. <\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC he doesn\u2019t foresee rate cuts this year, even in a recession. The Fed is determined to return inflation to the 2% target rate. The best policy is <strong>\u201cwait and see\u201d<\/strong> he said, to assess how well the actions to date have worked.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said at a town hall discussion at the Minnesota Transportation Conference on Monday that with inflation remaining above target, <strong>\u201cwe need to finish the job.\u201d<\/strong> Inflation rose at a 4.9% annual pace in April from 5% in March but is still \u201cmuch too high.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC that elevated uncertainty calls for <strong>more prudence and patience<\/strong>, and more data, saying officials are \u201cwatching the credit stresses, watching the craziness of the debt ceiling, and watching what\u2019s happening in the labor market, and the prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Total consumer debt in the first quarter hit a <strong>fresh high above $17 trillion<\/strong> despite a major pullback in home borrowing as interest rates rose, according to the New York Fed. Total debt is up about $2.9 trillion the last quarter of 2019, just before the beginning of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Financial markets are anticipating only a small likelihood of another interest-rate hike at the Fed\u2019s June 13-14 policy meeting, and interest rate futures contracts are anticipating the policy rate to end up around 4.25%-4.50% this year, below current levels, according to the CME FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Janet H. Cho<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>Warren Buffett\u2019s Berkshire Hathaway Shuffles Financial Holdings<\/h2>\n<p>Warren Buffett\u2019s<br \/>\n        Berkshire Hathaway<br \/>\n       and big hedge funds including Appaloosa, Third Point and Pershing Square Capital Management revealed new positions. Managers snapped up financials and tech companies as of the end of the first quarter despite market volatility during the period.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      Berkshire took on a new 9.9 million-share stake in<br \/>\n        Capital One Financial<br \/>\n       during the quarter and exited a 25.1 million-share stake in<br \/>\n        Bank of New York Mellon<span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       according to a quarterly regulatory filing. The holdings are as of the end of March and <strong>could have shifted<\/strong> since then.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Berkshire also showed a <strong>16% increase<\/strong> in its holding of<br \/>\n        HP Inc.<br \/>\n       That growth was part of a combination of the holdings of General Re Corp., which Berkshire has owned since 1998 but had previously reported its holdings separately as part of New England Asset Management Inc.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      David Tepper\u2019s Appaloosa revealed a new 150,000 share stake in<br \/>\n        Tesla<br \/>\n       and a new <strong>same-sized stake<\/strong> in<br \/>\n        Nvidia Corp.<br \/>\n       Daniel Loeb\u2019s Third Point took a new 4.75 million-share position in<br \/>\n        Alphabet<br \/>\n       as well as new stakes in<br \/>\n        Alibaba Group Holding<br \/>\n       and<br \/>\n        Advanced Micro Devices<span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Bill Ackman\u2019s Pershing Square scooped up <strong>nearly 10.3 million<\/strong> shares of Google-parent Alphabet. The position is made up of roughly 8.1 million shares of Alphabet\u2019s Class C stock and 2.2 million shares of its Class A shares.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Buffett said at Berkshire\u2019s annual meeting in early May that he has been a seller of bank stocks because he has grown less enamored with the industry. Berkshire also reduced its stake in<br \/>\n        Activision Blizzard<br \/>\n       by 3.3 million shares to 49.4 million shares in the quarter.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Liz Moyer and MarketWatch<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>Memorial Day Air Travel Expected to Surpass 2019 Totals<\/h2>\n<p>Nearly 3.4 million Americans will fly over the five-day Memorial Day weekend, according to AAA estimates. That would be the busiest airport travel weekend since 2005 and set up the summer travel season as one for the record books.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      It would be a 5.4% jump in airline passengers over 2019 and an 11% jump from last year\u2019s \u201crevenge travel\u201d trend despite higher ticket prices. An estimated <strong>42.3 million people<\/strong> will travel 50 miles or more from home during the unofficial start of summer, up 7% from 2022, AAA said.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      More people will hit the road, with <strong>37.1 million expected to drive<\/strong> to their destinations, up 6% from last year, but 500,000 shy of 2019. Gas prices are lower than last year, averaging $3.54 a gallon compared with more than $4 a gallon in 2022.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      TheVacationer.com expects nearly 165 million American adults to travel over Memorial Day weekend, with 61% of those surveyed planning road trips, and <strong>60% planning a cookout<\/strong>. Two-thirds of respondents said inflation was affecting their travel plans, including 13% citing high airfares.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Hayley Berg, an economist at the Hopper online travel booking platform, told ABC that last-minute domestic airfares average $275 per ticket, down $100 from last year, while round trip tickets to Europe average $1,300. Rental cars are about $44 a day, <strong>down 17% from last year<\/strong>, and hotel prices have dropped 6% to $208 a night.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Airfares costing 40% more this year haven\u2019t cooled demand. International bookings are 250% higher from 2022, international car rentals are up 80%, International Driving Permits have nearly doubled, and RushMyPassport is seeing record applications for expedited services, AAA said.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Janet H. Cho<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<div data-layout=\"\n              inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n        media-object\n        type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            full-width\n            \n    \n          \n  article__inset\n        article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>Be sure to join this month\u2019s Barron\u2019s Daily virtual stock exchange challenge and show us your stuff.<\/p>\n<p>Each month, we\u2019ll start a new challenge and invite newsletter readers\u2014you!\u2014to build a portfolio using virtual money and compete against the Barron\u2019s and MarketWatch community.<\/p>\n<p>Everyone will start with the same amount and can trade as often or as little as they choose. We\u2019ll track the leaders and at the end of the challenge the winner whose portfolio has the most value will be announced in The Barron\u2019s Daily newsletter.<\/p>\n<p>Are you ready to compete? Join the challenge and pick your stocks here.<\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<p><em>\u2014Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Brian Swint, Rupert Steiner and Steve Goldstein<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/articles\/things-to-know-today-fe48f0f1?mod=markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two of the major risks facing the U.S. economy\u2013the debt ceiling and banking turmoil\u2013are set to be tackled head on in Washington Tuesday. There\u2019s plenty of uncertainty around but markets will be hoping for some clarity on a potentially significant day ahead. As the June 1 debt ceiling deadline, reiterated by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9535,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-9534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>It\u2019s a Big Day for the Debt Ceiling and Banks. 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