{"id":9517,"date":"2023-05-16T13:40:05","date_gmt":"2023-05-16T17:40:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/cloud-gaming-could-help-microsoft-win-69-billion-activision-buy\/"},"modified":"2023-05-16T13:40:06","modified_gmt":"2023-05-16T17:40:06","slug":"cloud-gaming-could-help-microsoft-win-69-billion-activision-buy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=9517","title":{"rendered":"Cloud Gaming Could Help Microsoft Win $69 Billion Activision Buy"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>In January 2022, Microsoft cut a $69 billion deal to acquire Activision Blizzard, maker of the video games <em>Call of Duty<\/em> and <em>Candy Crush<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>At the time, I saw four reasons the deal could be good for investors: a large market opportunity in gaming and the metaverse, potential to increase the combined companies\u2019 market share, a positive net present value, and strong integration of the two companies.<\/p>\n<p>Since then, two significant developments have emerged:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Regulators have given mixed verdicts. While the EU approved the deal, American and British regulators have raised objections \u201con the grounds that it would undercut competition,\u201d according to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/05\/15\/technology\/eu-microsoft-activision-blizzard.html\">New York Times<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li>The metaverse seems to have faded into the background and a new industry \u2014 cloud gaming \u2014 could help determine whether U.S. and U.K. will approve the acquisition.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Will Microsoft\u2019s Activision Blizzard deal go through? If so, is that good for Microsoft stock? If it isn\u2019t approved, will Microsoft stock fall?<\/p>\n<p>I think the odds now are greater that deal will be approved and that is good for the stock.<\/p>\n<p>If the deal is not approved, Microsoft stock \u2014 which has eked out a 5% gain since the January 2022 announcement \u2014 remains a good investment thanks to revenue potential from ChatGPT.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, given the $40 billion in new revenue that its AI skills could bring to Microsoft\u2019s top line, investors might be better off if the $69 billion earmarked for Activision Blizzard was spent on expanding its AI business instead.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Microsoft\u2019s $69 Billion Activision Blizzard Deal<\/h2>\n<p>Seventeen months ago, Microsoft made a nearly $69 billion cash offer to acquire Activision Blizzard.<\/p>\n<p>With 400 million gaming users, leaders at Microsoft\u2019s Redmond, Washington headquarters were grabbing an opportunity to buy the company on the cheap. After all, its stock had fallen 27% in the wake of a July 2021 lawsuit alleging \u201csexual harassment and discrimination that senior executives ignored,\u201d according to the <em>Times.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Regulatory approval of the deal was not assured due to antitrust grounds. Specifically, there was concern that Microsoft would use its control of popular new Activision game releases to encourage consumers to buy its Xbox console.<\/p>\n<p>More specifically, Cowen analysts anticipated a mere 33% chance that the deal would be approved. That\u2019s because regulators might be concerned that Microsoft would favor the release of Activision games on Xbox over rivals such as Sony\u2019s PlayStation which could elicit a lawsuit to block the deal, MarketWatch reported.<\/p>\n<p>Here are four reasons I thought the deal could be good for Microsoft investors:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>It aimed at three potentially large markets.<\/strong> These included the $41 billion video game publishing industry, the $81 billion gaming console market; and the metaverse \u2014 which was a dream in 2022 and was estimated to grow at a 39% average annual rate to $21.7 trillion by 2030.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Microsoft\u2019s share of the first two markets would increase. <\/strong>Specifically, adding Activision\u2019s 10% share of video gaming to Microsoft\u2019s 23.9% slice of the pie would result in a considerable boost in its post-deal market position. Microsoft would likely give preference to its Xbox and gamers were more confident that Redmond would make better new games.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Positive net present value. <\/strong>The future cash flows from the deal discounted to the present would exceed the $69 billion purchase price by $4.4 billion, according to my calculations back then. The most important assumption was that the cash flows from the deal would continue to grow at Activision\u2019s 25% average annual rate.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Strong integration of the two companies.<\/strong> Given Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella\u2019s success with acquisition integration in previous deals \u2014 such as LinkedIn and GitHub \u2014 a similar success was more likely with Activision.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">The Decline Of The Metaverse And The Rise Of Cloud Gaming<\/h2>\n<p>In early 2022, I was still getting used to Facebook\u2019s name change to Meta Networks \u2014 a decision announced in late October 2021. Since then, the reason for the name change \u2014 a huge investment in the amorphous metaverse \u2014 does not seem to make much sense now.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, last July, Meta&#8217;s financial results and stock price had plunged \u2014 costing the company $230 billion in stock market capitalization after an awful February 2022 financial report.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s more, Mark Zuckerberg announced plans to reduce by 30% to 40% the number of people Meta would hire in 2022. Since then, Meta eliminated 11,000 jobs in November 2022 and announced another 21,000 cuts in March 2023, noted the <em>Washington Post<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>The new thing is cloud gaming \u2014 which uses 5G networks to give gamers a wireless, low latency gaming experience on TVs, phones and tablets without requiring customized hardware such as the Xbox or PlayStation.<\/p>\n<p>The market for cloud gaming totaled $3.2 billion in 2022 and is anticipated to grow at a nearly 43.6% average annual rate to $40.8 billion by 2029, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/cloud-gaming-market-size-surpass-123500909.html\">Fortune Business Insights<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Regulatory Approval Status And Next Steps<\/h2>\n<p>Cloud gaming helped Microsoft win the 27-nation EU\u2019s approval for its Activision deal on May 15. EU officials said they would allow the deal because Microsoft \u201cmade concessions to ensure that rival companies of new online gaming services would have continued access to titles developed by Activision,\u201d the <em>Times<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Specifically, Microsoft agreed to make Activision titles available on cloud gaming platforms for a decade after the deal closes \u201con cloud gaming services being developed by other companies, such as Nvidia,\u201d noted the <em>Times<\/em>. Meanwhile. U.S. and U.K. regulators oppose the deal because they fear it would squelch competition \u2014 in part by slowing the growth of the cloud gaming industry.<\/p>\n<p>Sixteen governments must approve the deal. In December 2022, the Federal Trade Commission sued to block the deal. On April 26, Britain\u2019s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) rejected Microsoft\u2019s bid, noted the <em>Times<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>The FTC opposed the deal because it \u201cwould harm consumers and lure gamers away from rivals.\u201d The CMA \u201cstands buy its decision to oppose the deal.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Can Microsoft\u2019s strategy for gaining EU approval of the deal help it win over these two regulators?<\/p>\n<p>Microsoft President Brad Smith said its concessions would benefit consumers. \u201cThe European Commission has required Microsoft to license popular Activision Blizzard games automatically to competing cloud gaming services. This will empower millions of consumers worldwide to play these games on any device they choose.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The EC concluded this concession would remove Microsoft\u2019s incentive to deny PlayStation \u2014 which has a large share of the European gaming console market \u2014 access to Activision titles because doing so would lower Microsoft\u2019s profit.<\/p>\n<p>CMA still opposes the deal. \u201cThey would replace a free, open and competitive market with one subject to ongoing regulation of the games Microsoft sells, the platforms to which it sells them, and the conditions of sale. This is one of the reasons the CMA\u2019s independent panel group rejected Microsoft\u2019s proposals and prevented this deal,\u201d CEO Sarah Cardell said in a May 15 statement.<\/p>\n<p>Significant uncertainty remains about whether Microsoft can reverse the opposition from the FTC and CMA.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Is Microsoft Stock A Buy?<\/h2>\n<p>Microsoft stock reflects the low probability of regulatory approval for the Activision Blizzard deal. I wonder whether investors have modeled the benefit of ChatGPT.<\/p>\n<p>Last month I estimated that ChatGPT could add $40 billion to Microsoft\u2019s revenues. To put that into perspective, in the year ending March 2023, Microsoft generated about $208 billion in revenue. So, ChatGPT revenue could add 20% to Microsoft\u2019s top line.<\/p>\n<p>By contrast, Activision Blizzard\u2019s revenue for the period was $8.1 billion, some 2% below the year before level \u2014 representing about 4% of Microsoft\u2019s revenue.<\/p>\n<p>Were the Activision Blizzard deal to fall apart, it would free up $69 billion in cash that Microsoft could invest in ChatGPT-related new business lines.<\/p>\n<p>That might be just what Microsoft investors need.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/05\/16\/cloud-gaming-could-help-microsoft-win-69-billion-activision-buy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In January 2022, Microsoft cut a $69 billion deal to acquire Activision Blizzard, maker of the video games Call of Duty and Candy Crush. At the time, I saw four reasons the deal could be good for investors: a large market opportunity in gaming and the metaverse, potential to increase the combined companies\u2019 market share, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9518,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-9517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Cloud Gaming Could Help Microsoft Win $69 Billion Activision Buy | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In January 2022, Microsoft cut a $69 billion deal to acquire Activision Blizzard, maker of the video games Call of Duty and Candy Crush. 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