{"id":92442,"date":"2024-10-30T03:38:41","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T07:38:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=92442"},"modified":"2024-10-30T03:38:48","modified_gmt":"2024-10-30T07:38:48","slug":"adf-group-downside-risks-created-by-record-breaking-margins-in-abrupt-cyclical-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=92442","title":{"rendered":"ADF Group: Downside Risks Created By Record-Breaking Margins In Abrupt Cyclical Industry"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"author-root\">\n<p class=\"mb-12 text-medium-2-r text-share-text-3\">This article was written by<\/p>\n<div class=\"mb-12 flex justify-between\">\n<div class=\"flex\">\n<div class=\"flex shrink-0 items-center justify-center relative size-44 rounded-full\" data-test-id=\"user-pic-wrapper\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button data-state-text=\"Following\" class=\"ihjjQ py-8 px-18 o7ZP8 ml-8 mt-0 shrink-0 self-baseline text-small-b relative inline-flex cursor-pointer select-none items-center whitespace-nowrap break-words transition-colors hover:no-underline motion-reduce:transition-none rounded-4 border-black bg-black text-white hover:bg-black-70 disabled:border-transparent disabled:bg-black-20 dark:border-black-10 dark:bg-black-10 dark:text-black dark:hover:border-black-10 dark:hover:bg-black-10 dark:disabled:bg-black-30 w-auto min-h-28 justify-center border px-12 py-1 text-medium-r\" data-test-id=\"follow-button\" type=\"button\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"wMAFB relative flex justify-center\" data-state-placeholder=\"Following\"><span class=\"absolute\">Follow<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/button><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"text-medium-2-r\">\n<div class=\"relative overflow-hidden\">\n<div>\n<p>For almost a decade, I held research analyst positions in various investment firms, mostly in Toronto. In the summer of 2021, I left the city and moved in a yurt I built in the boreal forest. I went from living in downtown Toronto to living alone in the woods approximately 100km away from the closest paved road or grocery store.The longer I stay in the woods, the deeper I understand the fundamental role of energy and commodities. Self-sufficiency does not exist, whether in nature or in society. On a personal level, I simply replaced my relationships with grocery stores and utility providers with natural ecosystems, and, ultimately, with God. I did not become self-sufficient. I merely changed on whom I am depending on. Knowing that I am able to fulfill all of my basic needs even when alone in the woods allowed me to replace with love the feeling of anxiety that I had in the city. I now have the deep conviction that I have the capacity to thrive in almost any environment. There is a shock at the beginning, but over time, I learn from my mistakes, and I grow into my new environment. Although my relationship with financial markets changed over time, my passion is still alive and well. I deeply understand the importance of timing when it comes to going against the crowd, as it ran over me a few times before. I am more comfortable on the periphery of a crowd while trying to anticipate where the mass is moving next.The rule is that I am generally too early when entering a trade. For example, I got involved in the uranium trade in early 2015, and the cycle took much longer to turn than I had initially expected. Once the bull run began in 2021, I was out of the trade as my patience got exhausted. Although it is far from being my only mistake of this kind, it is a big one. Getting the thesis right is the easiest part. Getting the timing right is the hardest part. Only when those two variables are combined that big money is made, and only masters of their art can do it. My previous mistakes indicate that I still have much to learn before becoming one of them. My journey on financial markets started when I was 14. After almost a decade in the investment industry and two years alone in the woods, I understand that my journey is spiritual. For this reason, comparing my returns to those of other people or other indices is self-defeating. My only basis of comparison is my former self and nothing else. My goal is to grow as a human being, to make mistakes, to learn from them, and to be better next time. If I can learn something from the mistakes of others, it is a bonus, but it is easier said than done. It is my own mistakes that provided the bulk of my experience.Writing has always been an essential part of my research process. Now that I am independent, I wish to make my research available to everyone, instead of a select group of individuals, as it has been for the last decade or so. This profile should be seen as the personal notebook of a personal life journey. I am not here to teach anything to anyone, I am here to share.I can only guarantee that I will make missteps along the way. If I get something right, tell yourself that I got lucky. I do not recommend anything to anyone, and if you read what I write too seriously, you may end up alone in the woods, so be careful.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p id=\"a-disclosure\"><b>Analyst\u2019s Disclosure:<\/b> <span>I\/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours.<\/span> <span id=\"top-business-disclosure\"> I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>This writing is for informational purposes only. This article should be seen as part of a personal notebook documenting a personal journey. I am not qualified or in a position to give advice to anyone.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a-disclosure-more\"><strong>Seeking Alpha&#8217;s Disclosure:<\/strong> Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4730755-adf-group-downside-risks-created-by-record-breaking-margins-in-abrupt-cyclical-turns-industry?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This article was written by Follow For almost a decade, I held research analyst positions in various investment firms, mostly in Toronto. In the summer of 2021, I left the city and moved in a yurt I built in the boreal forest. I went from living in downtown Toronto to living alone in the woods [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":92443,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-92442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>ADF Group: Downside Risks Created By Record-Breaking Margins In Abrupt Cyclical Industry | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This article was written byFollowFor almost a decade, I held research analyst positions in various investment firms, mostly in Toronto. 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