{"id":91763,"date":"2024-08-14T01:42:43","date_gmt":"2024-08-14T05:42:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=91763"},"modified":"2024-08-14T01:42:46","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T05:42:46","slug":"ke-holdings-still-undervalued-after-a-solid-quarter-nysebeke","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=91763","title":{"rendered":"KE Holdings: Still Undervalued After A Solid Quarter (NYSE:BEKE)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture><\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>I first wrote about my investment thesis on KE Holdings (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NYSE:BEKE<\/span>) (Beike) in June 2024. Since then, the stock has been mostly flat, while the stock prices of most Chinese real estate developers have further declined amid the<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> continuing slump of China&#8217;s real estate market. BEKE reported its earnings for Q2 FY2024 on August 12th before the bell. The company&#8217;s Q2 results demonstrated the resilience of its business model. Along with the earnings release, the company also announced a significant increase in the share-repurchase program. At today&#8217;s valuation, BEKE still has plenty of upside. Therefore, I am maintaining my &#8220;buy&#8221; rating for BEKE.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"><strong>BEKE&#8217;s Q2 2024 Results<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">BEKE reported Q2 2024 results on August 12th before the market open. According to the company&#8217;s press release, highlights of the quarter include:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">\n<ul>\n<li>Gross transaction value (GTV) increased 7.5% year-over-year.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">Net revenues increased 19.9% year-over-year.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">Adjusted operating margin increased to 12.0% in the second quarter of 2024, compared to 11.0% in the same period of 2023.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">Adjusted net income increased by 13.1% year-over-year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Detailed Analysis Of Net Revenues<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I believe for Beike, investors should pay close attention to not only the net revenue trend, but also the net revenue mix. As a recap, Beike has two new rapidly growing businesses &#8211; home renovation and furnishing, and home rental services. During Q2 of 2024, both business segments continued very strong growth momentum.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Net revenues from home renovation and furnishing increased by 53.9% to RMB4.0 billion ($0.6 billion). This implies that the segment&#8217;s contribution to Beike&#8217;s total revenue has increased to 17.2%, compared to about 13.3% in Q2 of 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Net revenues from home rental services increased by 167.1% to RMB3.2 billion ($0.4 billion) in Q2 of 2024, representing 13.7% of net revenue. In Q2 of 2023, home rental services only accounted for 6.2% of net revenue.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The growth rates of Beike&#8217;s new businesses are truly impressive. However, Beike&#8217;s old business, namely the home transactions service, reported mixed results. On one hand, net revenues from existing home transaction services increased by 14.3% mostly due to the 25% growth of the GTV of existing home transactions. On the other hand, net revenues from new home transaction services decreased by 8.8% due to the 20% decline of GTV of new home transactions. Although Beike&#8217;s GTV of new home transactions declined 20%, it still outperformed the market. As reported by China&#8217;s real estate association, China&#8217;s overall sales of new home transactions declined 21.5% in Q2 of 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">When asked about BEKE&#8217;s outperformance during the earnings call, BEKE&#8217;s CFO Tao Xu explained in details the reasons why BEKE&#8217;s done better than the market. In summary, there are four factors contributing to BEKE&#8217;s market share gain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">First of all, &#8220;<em>in a buyer&#8217;s market<\/em>, <em>helping downstream agents with special incentives for new home sales can facilitate more efficiency sell-through in the current market&#8221;<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Secondly, Beike &#8220;<em>further expanded the coverage of the core state-owned developers and high-quality leading real estate companies better meeting their needs with innovative new home services.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Thirdly, Beike used technology tools &#8220;<em>to help agents better identify high potential new home buyers who are likely to make a new near-term purchase, thus boosting the new home sell-through&#8221;.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Lastly, BEKE increased the number of agents on its platform and <em>&#8220;expanded the role of the comprehensive agents so that more agents can engage in both new and existing home business in parallel&#8221;<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Overall, considering China&#8217;s horrendous real estate market, I think Beike&#8217;s net revenue growth for the quarter is very strong. BEKE&#8217;s management noted that the year-over-year sales decline in Q2 narrowed month-by-month. This is a good sign for China&#8217;s real estate market and for BEKE as well.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> <strong>Strong<\/strong> Balance Sheet And Updated Share Repurchase Program<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Unlike Chinese real estate developers who are bleeding cash, BEKE is still a cash cow. For Q2 of 2024, the company generated RMB4.8 billion ($0.66 billion) of operating cash flow and had RMB59.7 billion ($8.2 billion) of cash, cash equivalent and short-term investments. The company used $100 million to repurchase shares during Q2.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Beike&#8217;s strong operating cash flow gives management the confidence to boost the share repurchase program. Along with the earnings release, BEKE announced the increase in share repurchase program from $2 billion to $3 billion. Obviously, this is good news for BEKE&#8217;s shareholders.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> <strong>Financial<\/strong> Projections And Valuation<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In terms of financial projections, I have updated my model to incorporate BEKE&#8217;s Q2 results. I am still assuming that new home sales in China will decline in the next two years, but sales of existing home sales will rebound. To be conservative, I am also assuming Beike will maintain its current market share in both existing and new home markets, even though Beike has grown its market share in Q2. Furthermore, I&#8217;ve revised up Beike&#8217;s margins, as Beike&#8217;s Q2 margins are much better than I expected. Based on these assumptions, I arrived at my 2025 revenue and adjusted net income projections.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/6011681-17235503766793737.png\" alt=\"valuation\" width=\"640\" height=\"101\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"101\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">author&#8217;s estimate<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In terms of valuation, I am applying 14 times P\/E multiple, which is a 60% discount to the sector median P\/E multiple to account for Beike&#8217;s risk as a Chinese ADR.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/6011681-1723550394030825.png\" alt=\"valuation\" width=\"640\" height=\"175\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"175\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">author&#8217;s estimate<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Based on these assumptions, it looks like Beike is undervalued at the current level.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For Q2 of 2024, Beike has managed to increase its market share during an extremely difficult period of China&#8217;s real estate market. The rate of decline of China&#8217;s new home sales has stabilized, while China&#8217;s existing home sales returned to growth. Meanwhile, Beike&#8217;s new business initiatives have strong growth momentum. Overall, I believe Beike&#8217;s price has more than 50% upside from today&#8217;s price. Therefore, I am maintaining BEKE&#8217;s &#8220;buy&#8221; rating.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4714319-ke-holdings-still-undervalued-after-a-solid-quarter?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I first wrote about my investment thesis on KE Holdings (NYSE:BEKE) (Beike) in June 2024. Since then, the stock has been mostly flat, while the stock prices of most Chinese real estate developers have further declined amid the continuing slump of China&#8217;s real estate market. BEKE reported its earnings for Q2 FY2024 on August 12th [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91764,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-91763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>KE Holdings: Still Undervalued After A Solid Quarter (NYSE:BEKE) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I first wrote about my investment thesis on KE Holdings (NYSE:BEKE) (Beike) in June 2024. 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