{"id":91530,"date":"2024-07-19T01:16:41","date_gmt":"2024-07-19T05:16:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=91530"},"modified":"2024-07-19T01:16:44","modified_gmt":"2024-07-19T05:16:44","slug":"netflix-stock-q2-solid-ads-membership-and-paid-subscribers-growth-nasdaqnflx","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=91530","title":{"rendered":"Netflix Stock Q2: Solid Ads Membership And Paid Subscribers Growth (NASDAQ:NFLX)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>Since I upgraded Netflix (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NASDAQ:NFLX<\/span>) to a \u2018Buy\u2019 rating in December 2023, the stock price has increased by more than 30%, outperforming the S&amp;P 500 index return of 16%. I highlighted Netflix\u2019s disciplined content spending and strong membership growth momentum in<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> my previous coverages. Netflix released its <\/span>Q2 FY24<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> result on July 18<\/span><sup class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">th<\/sup><span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> after the bell, raising the full-year revenue and margin guidance due to strong membership growth. I appreciate the company\u2019s progress in growing its ads business, with ads tier membership growing by 34% quarter on quarter. I am upgrading Netflix to a \u2018Strong Buy\u2019 rating with a fair value of $750 per share.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"><strong>Solid Ads Membership &amp; Paid Subscribers Growth<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">My biggest takeaway from the quarter is Netflix\u2019s accelerated revenue growth, propelled by the growth of ads sponsored membership and paid subscriber growth. The management indicated that ads<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> tier accounts for over 45% of all signups in the company\u2019s ads markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/59134144-17213551972818563.png\" alt=\"Netflix Rev growth\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Netflix Quarterly Earnings<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I think Netflix\u2019s accelerated revenue growth is driven by several factors:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>As mentioned in my previous article, Netflix launched their low-priced and ad-supported streaming services in several markets in order to expand their potential subscriber base. In Q2, their ad-supported membership grew by 34% quarter over quarter. During the earnings call, the management indicated that the company has been focusing on ads relevancy, targeting personalization and better measurement. The management expressed strong confidence in the growth of ad-supported streaming in the coming years.<\/li>\n<li>Netflix\u2019s paid membership grew by 16.5% year-over-year in Q2, with growth across all the major regions, as illustrated in the chart below.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/59134144-17213551975424078.png\" alt=\"Netflix paid membership growth\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Netflix Quarterly Earnings<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The double-digit paid membership growth contributed significantly to the overall revenue growth, in my view.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Lastly, Netflix has been working on initiatives to crack down password sharing, offering features such as Transfer Profile and Extra Member to reduce password sharing among subscribers. As shown in the table below, the average monthly revenue per paying membership has grown in the US\/Canada over the past few quarters, partially due to the password cracking.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/59134144-17213551974202244.png\" alt=\"Netflix avg rev per membership (north america)\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Netflix Quarterly Earnings<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>FY24 Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company raised the full-year revenue guidance to 14% -15% ((versus previous guidance of 13% &#8211; 15%)), and its operating margin to 26% ((versus previous guidance of 25%)).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I am considering the following factors for revenue growth and margin expansion:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>In recent years, Netflix has allocated around $17 billion towards content spending annually, expect for FY23, which was disrupted by the strike. Assuming Netflix maintains content spending at around $17 billion while growing their revenue at double-digit, the company could generate tremendous operating leverage, as per my calculations.<\/li>\n<li>Netflix has been growing its advertising business, which carries much higher margin for Netflix. Netflix possesses tremendous data from their streaming services, which could be favored by advertisers, in my view. Digital TV Research forecasts that streaming services with ad-supported subscription plans will grow from $6 billion in 2023 to $20 billion by 2029. Consequently, I anticipate Netflix will continue to grow their ads supported streaming services and generate more ads revenue in the coming years.<\/li>\n<li>I anticipate Netflix\u2019s paid membership to continue growing by 15%+ in the near future, thanks to share gains from the massive TV cable market, as well as Netflix\u2019s password cracking initiatives.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Overall, I forecast Netflix will deliver 15% revenue growth with a 100bps margin expansion, driven by gross profit leverage and declining amortization costs.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Valuation Update<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For normalized growth, I forecast a 12% revenue growth, assuming 6% average monthly revenue per membership growth and 6% membership growth. The average monthly revenue per membership growth assumption aligns with their historical average over the past seven years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">On the margin side, I assumes content spending requires 5% year-over-year growth, and other operating expenses grow at the same rate as revenue growth. Due to operating leverage, I calculate their operating margin would expand to 30.6% by FY33.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/59134144-17213551975008054.png\" alt=\"Netflix DCF - Author's Calculations\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Netflix DCF &#8211; Author&#8217;s Calculations<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The WACC is calculated to be 11.3% with the following assumptions:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">-risk free rate: 4.2% ((U.S. 10 year treasury yield))<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">-beta: 1.55. ((SA data))<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">-equity risk premium and cost of debt: 7%<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">-debt: $14 billion; equity $20 billion<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">-tax rate: 15%<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Discounting all the free cash flow, the fair value of Netflix\u2019s stock is calculated to be $750 per share.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Key Risks<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In January 2024, Netflix announced a deal with TKO Group Holdings (TKO) to bring WWE\u2019s flagship weekly program \u2013 <em>RAW<\/em>, to Netflix\u2019s streaming from January 2025 in the U.S., Canada, UK, and Latam. Netflix plans to roll out <em>RAW<\/em> streaming in other countries over time. According to TKO\u2019s disclosure, Netflix is agreed to pay more than $5 billion in total for a 10-year term. I have to say it is a quite expensive content acquisition for Netflix.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In addition, Disney (DIS) has also invested heavily in their ads supported streaming services, and the company has integrated ESPN to their streaming services and introduced various streaming bundles with Disney+. I view Disney as a respectable company, and Disney\u2019s success in Disney+ could potentially pose some challenges for Netflix.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I am quite impressed with Netflix\u2019s membership growth, driven by market penetration and ad-supported subscriptions. Netflix\u2019s disciplined content spending is expected to help the company reduce the amortization costs and improve operating margin over time. I upgrade Netflix to a &#8216;Strong Buy&#8217; rating, with a fair value of $750 per share.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4705017-netflix-stock-q2-earnings-solid-ads-membership-paid-subscribers-growth-buy?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since I upgraded Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) to a \u2018Buy\u2019 rating in December 2023, the stock price has increased by more than 30%, outperforming the S&amp;P 500 index return of 16%. I highlighted Netflix\u2019s disciplined content spending and strong membership growth momentum in my previous coverages. Netflix released its Q2 FY24 result on July 18th after the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91531,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-91530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Netflix Stock Q2: Solid Ads Membership And Paid Subscribers Growth (NASDAQ:NFLX) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Since I upgraded Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) to a \u2018Buy\u2019 rating in December 2023, the stock price has increased by more than 30%, outperforming the S&amp;P 500\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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