{"id":90457,"date":"2024-04-06T23:32:44","date_gmt":"2024-04-07T03:32:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=90457"},"modified":"2024-04-06T23:32:52","modified_gmt":"2024-04-07T03:32:52","slug":"vflo-my-favorite-dividend-etf-for-todays-accelerating-economy-nasdaqvflo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=90457","title":{"rendered":"VFLO: My Favorite Dividend ETF For Today&#8217;s Accelerating Economy (NASDAQ:VFLO)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Please note that this week is the quarterly Master List fundamentals update. Every quarter, after earnings, I update all necessary fundamentals for the DK 500 Master List, which enables valuation-based ratings to operate automatically in real time.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, this is the<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> reason for just one article this week.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Here&#8217;s my ZEUS Family fund holdings&#8217; weekly economic update and actionable idea.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> <\/h2>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">ZEUS Family Fund Summary: A Bad But Completely Expected Week<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">This week, rising interest rates caused the market to experience a micro dip, and it&#8217;s essential always to use percentages to keep things in context.<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><strong>ZEUS Charity Hedge Fund<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Portfolio Value<\/td>\n<td>$1,821,240<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Historical Downside Capture<\/td>\n<td>0.6266<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Record High Date<\/td>\n<td>4\/1\/24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Record High Profit<\/td>\n<td>$156,576<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Below Record Profit<\/td>\n<td>$38,928.13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Distance From Record High<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2.14%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Total Profit<\/td>\n<td>$117,648<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Monthly Profit<\/td>\n<td>$28,644.70<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Weekly Profit<\/td>\n<td class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">$7,161.17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">\n<td>Daily Profit<\/td>\n<td>$1,023.02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">\n<td>Hourly Profit<\/td>\n<td>$42.63<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">\n<td>Minute Profit<\/td>\n<td>$0.71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">\n<td>Second Profit<\/td>\n<td>$0.01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\" class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">When the fund launched in December, Morningstar estimated a potential 26% fundamentally justified gain in the first year, equating to approximately $480,000 in profits or approximately $9,230 weekly.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>For the overall strategy, including outside money available to invest later.<\/li>\n<li>14% undervalued = 16% upside to fair value + 8.5% weighted earnings growth +3.5% dividends<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">What&#8217;s so remarkable is that the ZEUS Family Fund has been following the fundamentally justified total return potential path like a rail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This is very unusual, as the stock market is known for its volatility, which is why stocks are considered a &#8220;risk asset.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123198110053544.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Ychart<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The S&amp;P has experienced only a 2% peak decline this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The average historical intra-year decline is 15%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Stocks are up 76% of the time in any given year, and in any given year, they average a 15% peak decline at some point on the way to historically average 10% gains.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The average annual return in an up year is 22%, and the average decline in a down year is -12%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123209509737465.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Sharesights<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">HFND is the DBMF of hedge fund ETFs. It&#8217;s run by former Bridgewater head of Macro research Bob Elliott, who uses AI machine-learning algos to estimate the entire hedge fund industry&#8217;s positioning in a single &#8220;low-cost&#8221; ETF.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>A 2% expense ratio is 60% lower than what the hedge fund industry charges<\/li>\n<li>it&#8217;s 5X higher than the 0.38% that my family is paying for ZEUS.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123211818785658.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morningstar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In HFND, we&#8217;d be paying $37,000 in annual fees.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123213170694203.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Dividend King ZEUS Portfolio Tracker<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">HFND is designed to earn 8% post-fee total returns in the long term, beating the 60-40&#8217;s historical 7% with slightly lower volatility.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">ZEUS Family fund is designed to generate SCHD-like yields with far superior returns to the hedge fund industry and 8X lower fees.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I&#8217;m trying to prove that the hedge fund industry&#8217;s use of complex strategies, like global macro, long\/short, private credit, event-driven investing, etc., is unnecessary for good results.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Historically, 67% of hedge fund net profits come from trend following, according to AQR.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>Simplicity is the ultimate sophistitication.&#8221; &#8211; Lenardi Da Vinci<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">What ZEUS Looks Like Now<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1712335262701354.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morningstar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">10 Largest Holdings: 41.32% Of Portfolio vs. 32% S&amp;P 500<\/h4>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">20 Largest Holdings: 47.19% Of Portfolio vs. 42.1% S&amp;P 500<\/h4>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">30 Largest Holdings: 51.63% Of Portfolio<\/h4>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">40 Largest Holdings: 54.21% Of Portfolio<\/h4>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">50 Largest Holdings: 56.27% Of Portfolio<\/h4>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123218244543083.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morningstar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123219301531842.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morningstar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123220119268756.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morningstar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123224110711136.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morningstar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123227257252018.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morningstar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1712322948429472.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morningstar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We&#8217;re invested in four asset classes courtesy of ETFs like KMLM.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Nicely balanced between growth, value, yield, and 17% exposure to small and mid-cap companies.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Which benefit most from economic accelerations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123230790250902.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morningstar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Tilted toward tech but good sector diversification overall.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Stock Fundamentals<\/h4>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123231612001026.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Morningstar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For context, the S&amp;P is trading at a forward PE of 21.1, and Morningstar&#8217;s analysts estimate its earnings will grow by 12% over the next five years.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>S&amp;P PEG ratio: 1.76 (1.18 cash-adjusted)<\/li>\n<li>20-year average PEG: 3.54 (2.17 cash-adjusted)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">ZEUS Family is trading at a PEG of 1.27 and adjusted for cash on our company&#8217;s balance sheet it falls to under 1.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Growth at a reasonable price or GARP.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Market Outlook\/Valuation: What The Bears Are Getting Wrong<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">You might hear about Shiller PE, PE, book value, dividend yield, and many valuation metrics.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123236857673342.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Multipl<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Looking back to 1871 for a sense of where US stocks should be valued today is incorrect for many reasons.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1712329786911504.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Ritholtz Wealth Management <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Guess what the 20-year average CAPE is? 26X, a lot less scary.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1712329825573878.jpg\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Dividend Kings S&amp;P 500 Valuation Tool<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">And what&#8217;<span class=\"highlighted_text\"><\/span>s the percentage of returns explained by fundamentals over 20 years? 91%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In other words, once you get to 10-30 years, you have enough historical data to make a 90%-97% probability that whatever the valuations we&#8217;ve seen are the market-determined fair value stocks will return to.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>The probability that bubbles can last 30+ years is 3%<\/li>\n<li>The probability bubble can last ten years is 10%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123237747357142.jpg\" alt=\"x\" width=\"640\" height=\"383\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"383\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Ritholtz Wealth Management <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">US stock PEs have been rising for decades, long before rates peaked in 1980 and trended lower for 40 years.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>The rise of retail investors.<\/li>\n<li>The introduction of 401Ks in the 1980s (automated flow of cash into stocks every two weeks).<\/li>\n<li>Foreign investors are now able to buy US stocks.<\/li>\n<li>Rise of big tech (wider moat, higher margin, higher quality companies).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1712323881621272.jpg\" alt=\"x\" width=\"640\" height=\"481\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"481\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Ritholtz Wealth Management <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">According to Tom Lee at Fundastrat, a secular labor shortage through 2047 could cause technology, whose AI productivity boost will solve that shortage, to grow earnings so quickly that by 2047, the S&amp;P will go from 30% technology to 50%.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Including GOOG, Meta, and AMZN (which are not officially tech stocks), likely around 75%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In 1900, 66% of the US stock market was railroads, not industrials, just railroads.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Tech is more profitable than industrials, and today&#8217;s tech stocks offer utility-like products and services that create monthly recurring revenue. That&#8217;s why S&amp;P PEs rising steadily are both expected and justified by fundamentals.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Why Professional Money Managers Aren&#8217;t Worried About An Imminent Crash<\/h4>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123235857841454.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>JPMorgan Asset Management <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Stocks look less overvalued when viewed in more reasonable 10\u2014to 30-year time frames (90% to 97% statistically significant).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123234376258178.jpg\" alt=\"x\" width=\"640\" height=\"467\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"467\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Pacer<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">When we look at the most accurate metric of the last 33 years, enterprise value\/cash flow, the market is barely overvalued.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Enterprise Value = market cap + debt &#8211; cash (the cost of buying the company)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">S&amp;P EV\/EBITDA<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Week<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>14<\/strong><\/td>\n<td> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>% Of Year Done<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2024 Weighting<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2025 Weighting<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>26.92%<\/td>\n<td>73.08%<\/td>\n<td>26.92%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Forward S&amp;P EV\/EBITDA (Cash-Adjusted Earnings)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>10-Year Average (90% statistical significance)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Market Overvaluation<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>14.00<\/td>\n<td>13.46<\/td>\n<td>4.41%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>S&amp;P Fair Value<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Decline To Fair Value<\/strong><\/td>\n<td> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>4,948.27<\/td>\n<td>4.22%<\/td>\n<td> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>(Source: Dividend Kings S&amp;P Valuation Tool)<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">And guess what? There is another vital factor to consider in valuation, as Peter Lynch&#8217;s growth at a reasonable price points out.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>PEG ratio = PE (or any EV\/cash flow)\/future earnings growth<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The 25-year average EV\/EBITDA\/Growth (cash-adjusted PEG) for the S&amp;P is 2.17.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Today, the S&amp;P&#8217;s EPS growth estimate from Morningstar is 12%, 2X the historical rate (and 3X faster than the last 25 years).<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li><strong>1.17 cash-adjusted PEG vs. 2.17 25-year average. <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Morningstar&#8217;s analysts are bullish on the S&amp;P due to the rise of big tech, which is growing at 15%.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">FactSet Bottom-Up Growth Consensus (3,500 Analysts)<\/h4>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123247546018903.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>FactSet Research Terminal<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The FactSet bottom-up consensus (92% accuracy rate over the last 20 years, according to FactSet&#8217;s John Butters) is for 12.5% EPS growth through 2026, similar to Morningstar&#8217;s bottom-up analyst estimate.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Top-down estimate: Analysts &#8220;guess&#8221; S&amp;P earnings growth based on the economy.<\/li>\n<li>Bottom-up: Take every company in the S&amp;P 500 EPS consensus growth and weight by the same weighting in the S&amp;P.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Could earnings growth be wrong? Sure. But even if the S&amp;P&#8217;s earnings grow 50% as fast as expected, the S&amp;P will still only be about 4% historically overvalued.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Economic Update: Another Blowout Jobs Report<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123208594082558.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>FactSet Research Terminal<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>3-month rolling average: 260K.<\/li>\n<li>Last month&#8217;s revised estimate: 270K.<\/li>\n<li>This month: 303K.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Moody&#8217;s considers 225K monthly jobs consistent with 1.8% GDP growth and 250K a &#8220;strong economy.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Wage growth came in at 4.1% year-over-year, ahead of CPI and Trulfation&#8217;s real-time inflation estimate.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123254021621046.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Trulfation<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Truflation uses 10 million data points, updated daily, to estimate real-time inflation.<\/li>\n<li>97% correlation with CPI since 2012.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The Fed wants to see wage growth of 3.5% and inflation of 2% for a 1.5% real wage growth.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Real wage growth: wage growth &#8211; inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The monthly wage growth of 0.3% is 3.7%, approaching the Fed&#8217;s target.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Wages &#8211; productivity = inflation.<\/li>\n<li>4.1% YOY &#8211; 3.2% productivity = 0.9% CPI potential (if today&#8217;s data continues to hold).<\/li>\n<li>3.7% annualized wage growth &#8211; 3.2% productivity = 0.5% CPI potential.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Digging Into The Numbers: What The Media Doesn&#8217;t Tell You Matters That Does<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li><strong>Construction jobs (a leading indicator of recession)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>Construction <strong>added 39,000 jobs in March, about double the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months.<\/strong> Over the month, employment increased in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+16,000).&#8221; &#8211; Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The most economically sensitive industries are producing jobs at a healthy rate. The housing market, in general, appears to be recovering, which is a tailwind for the economy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Note 16K monthly construction job growth with 8% mortgages. The genius of American capitalism is we adapt and overcome and just keep growing in the face of what might seem like overwhelming odds.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li><strong>Non-supervisory wages (80% of Americans)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123266596334305.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">4.25% annual wage growth and 4.25% weekly earnings (wages X hours worked).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">So, it is slightly better than 4.1% overall wage growth and 3.7% annualized.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The Fed will be happy this is trending lower but faster than inflation.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li><strong>3-Month rolling average of job growth<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 27,000, from +229,000 to +256,000, and the change for February was revised down by 5,000, from +275,000 to +270,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is <strong>22,000 higher than previously reported.<\/strong>&#8221; &#8211; Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The three-month rolling average on job growth is now 277K, trending higher.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>608K in 2021 (Pandemic recovery)<\/li>\n<li>400K in 2022 (also Pandemic recovery)<\/li>\n<li>258K in 2023 (earnings, housing, industrial recession, highest rates in 20 years)<\/li>\n<li><strong>277K in 2024 YTD vs 171K 2010 to 2020<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We&#8217;re creating net jobs at a rate of 3.3 million per year, 1.2 million more annual net jobs than from 2010 to 2020.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li><em><strong>We&#8217;re creating jobs at a 38% faster growth rate than Pre-pandemic levels. <\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">What does this likely mean for GDP growth?<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123269062129555.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Atlanta Fed <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The blue-chip economist consensus thinks growth is currently 2%, and the Atlanta Fed&#8217;s model says 2.5%.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Not including today&#8217;s blowout jobs report.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123270455794237.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>New York Fed<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The New York Fed&#8217;s model also estimates around 2% growth this quarter.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123271391447835.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>New York Fed<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The New York Fed expects a modest 0.3% GDP growth acceleration in Q2, and that&#8217;s before today&#8217;s blowout jobs report is factored in.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">How fast could GDP growth reach based on today&#8217;s fundamentals?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The current net migration rate for the U.S. in 2024 is 2.768 per 1000 population, a 0.73% increase from 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The labor force is growing at 0.6% per year, 2X the rate JPMorgan expected this decade.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <strong>GDP growth<\/strong> = Productivity growth (3.2%) + labor force growth rate (0.6%) = <strong>3.8%<\/strong> <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In other words, if current productivity growth rates hold and our workforce keeps growing at the current rate (people rejoining the workforce or immigrants getting jobs), the US economy could continue accelerating from 2% to 2.5% growth now to 3.8%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123276461848953.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Crestmont Research<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123276973913949.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Crestmont Research<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">How has the US economy been growing since the Pandemic ended? The fastest rate in 83 years.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1712327801027882.jpg\" alt=\"x\" width=\"640\" height=\"384\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"384\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Charlie Bilello<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">And while growth is likely to slow, McKinsey thinks that <strong>GDP growth might accelerate from 4.2% to 6.5% thanks to AI. <\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>Most people overestimate what they can achieve in <em>a year<\/em> and underestimate what they can achieve in <em>ten years<\/em>.&#8221; &#8211; Bill Gates<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">What about inflation and interest rates? What does a potential re-acceleration of US economic growth to 3%, or even 4% or more, mean for inflation and interest rates?<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Inflation\/Interest Rate Update: PCE Report As Expected But Bond Market Reacting To Hawkish Fed Talk<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Although the market was closed for Easter last Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report was released.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123280919922192.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>FactSet Research Terminal<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As expected, the core PCE was 2.8% last month, down from 2.9% the previous month.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Cleveland Fed Daily Inflation Model<\/h4>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123281767274563.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Cleveland Fed<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The Cleveland Fed&#8217;s real-time model predicts that Core PCE will fall to 2.7% at the end of April and 2.6% at the end of May.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As Powell has indicated, the month-over-month rate is expected to keep drifting lower at a crawl but potentially give the Fed the cover it needs to start cutting later this year.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Powell told the Senate he wants to cut in July.<\/li>\n<li>The Fed Chairman usually gets his way.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123284602071736.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>CME Group<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The bond market is starting to price in the possibility that the Fed doesn&#8217;t cut until September.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Since 2008, according to the Fed futures market, the Fed has always done what was an 80%-plus probability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The bond market thinks three cuts are coming this year, just as the Fed&#8217;s Dot plot says.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Fed&#8217;s Dot plot shows median forecasts for interest rates by all 19 FOMC members.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">There is now a slight chance that the Fed might hike rates again, just 1.4%.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>A-credit rating = 2.5% risk of bankruptcy<\/li>\n<li>The risk of another Fed hike is 50% less than Home Depot going bankrupt in the next three decades.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123287858080242.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Atlanta Fed <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In a &#8220;worst case&#8221; rate scenario, the Fed might have to hike twice and leave rates at 5.75% to 6% for years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This would likely mean that two-year yields would rise to 5.5% to 6%, 10-year yields would rise to 6% to 6.5%, and 30-year yields could potentially reach 7%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Wouldn&#8217;t that be catastrophic for stocks? No, not likely.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Investing Lesson Of The Week: Good News Is Always And Forever Good News<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">There&#8217;s no wage-price spiral or significant commodity disruption like the 1970s twin oil shocks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The only way inflation stays above 3% or hits 4% (forcing the Fed to hike to around 6% and keep rates there) is a booming economy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Productivity growth from technology is deflationary.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">So, where might inflation come from?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">70% of the economy is consumer spending, and consumers are spending.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Pandemic plus worst inflation in 42 years, plus fastest interest rate increases in decades, plus 8% mortgages plus worst bond bear market in history, two bear markets in four years&#8230;and 25% annual returns for buy and hold investors.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1712329049945037.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Ritholtz Wealth Management <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This is the genius of American capitalism in all its splendor.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123292384164047.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Ritholtz Wealth Management <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Americans are wealthier than ever, and the job market is the best since 1951 and seems to be getting stronger.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Net worth is growing at an accelerating rate, including $33 trillion in home equity that, when mortgage rates finally do fall, could unleash trillions in cash-out refinancing and Home Equity Lines of Credit borrowing.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>If US consumers borrow 1% of their home equity, $330 billion = 1.5% GDP boost.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123293969287653.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Ritholtz Wealth Management <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">$33 trillion in home equity and $57 trillion in stock market assets, all of which consumers can borrow against, even though rates are high.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Don&#8217;t let anyone tell you the economy should weaken so rates come down.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123295538409936.jpg\" alt=\"x\" width=\"640\" height=\"535\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"535\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Daily Shot <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Since 1991, including the tech bubble and 15 years of &#8220;free money forever,&#8221; 97% of S&amp;P returns are explained by dividends and earnings growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Since 2010, 87% of market gains have been explained by fundamentals.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1712329625009157.jpg\" alt=\"x\" width=\"640\" height=\"465\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"465\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Daily Shot <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Since earnings and dividends explain 1871, 97% of US stock returns.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">How important are interest rates? The 10-year yield is a proxy for long-term &#8220;risk-free&#8221; interest rates, which mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs benchmark against.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>Over the past 60 years there&#8217;s basically no relationship between the average level of yields and S&amp;P 500 returns, at least at a quarterly frequency,&#8221; says Stuart Kaiser, head of equity trading strategy at Citi.&#8221; &#8211; Reuters<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123302578868692.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Paris Dauphine University<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h4 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Traders care about rates; long-term investors care about earnings. <\/em><\/h4>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Good news is always and forever good news for long-term investors.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Investing Idea Of The Week: VFLO, My Favorite ETF Idea For Today&#8217;s Economic Climate And Beyond<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In an accelerating economy, deep-value cyclical companies tend to do very well.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123304054177072.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Ycharts<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This week, I bought some more VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NASDAQ:VFLO<\/span>) because it&#8217;s steadily proving that its deep value Buffett-style approach of deep value quality and growth is not just outperforming COWZ but also the S&amp;P, Nasdaq, and Mag 7.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>VFLO: 5 Reasons I&#8217;m Buying This Dividend ETF For My Retirement Portfolio<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Here&#8217;<span class=\"highlighted_text\"><\/span>s the 30-second elevator pitch for VFLO.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1710940307633813.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>VictoryShares<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Since 1991, the strategy this ETF has been using has generated 17.6% annual returns or 151X increase in wealth, compared to the S&amp;P&#8217;s 9.8% or 22X increase.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17109405819632103.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>VictoryShares<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">VFLO uses a rules-based strategy to create a concentrated (though still diversified enough) portfolio of high quality, deep value with good growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Imagine the same growth as the S&amp;P 400 but with a 3X better valuation. That secret sauce powered almost 18% annual returns for 33 years, resulting in over 30% since inception.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1712330786359521.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>FactSet Research Terminal<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In an accelerating economy, industries, energy, and healthcare are likely to thrive, and that&#8217;s why VFLO is overweight.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123310166335206.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>FactSet Research Terminal<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">VFLO&#8217;s 12-month forward cash-adjusted PE (EV\/EBITDA) is just over 7X, 33% less than what private equity is paying for companies.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>VFLO = 33% cheaper than Billionaires like Mark Cuban are paying for sweetheart deals.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">What kind of companies are we getting? Not cigar butts, but companies with virtually no net debt, A-credit ratings (often AA-rated like XOM), and here&#8217;s the<span> <\/span>growth rate.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123314259560876.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>FactSet Research Terminal<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The current portfolio (turnover is almost 100% per year) is expected to see a minor EPS decline in 2024, but the S&amp;P is forward-looking for 12 months.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-1712331488515444.jpg\" alt=\"x\" width=\"568\" height=\"597\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"568\" data-height=\"597\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Pacer Funds<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">So, the market is seeing double-digit growth and 7X cash-adjusted earnings, which results in a 0.7 PEG ratio, which is even better than the S&amp;P&#8217;s 1.2.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">And that&#8217;s why VLFO&#8217;s incredible first-year performance is more than 100% justified by fundamentals. There&#8217;s no bubble, momentum chasing, or FOMO (fear of missing out) here.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">By definition, VFLO will own the best FCF PEG large caps, making it my favorite deep value, quality, and growth ETF right now, especially at this stage of the economic cycle.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Mid-cyle but acceleration in industrials and energy and cyclical<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Conclusion: Long-Term Investing Is Betting on The US Economy, A Bet That Is Well Supported By Today&#8217;s Evidence<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123294994378295.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Ritholtz Wealth Management <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">It feels eerie for the stock market to soar 10% in three months with no declines more significant than 1.8%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">It feels like 2017 when tax-cut euphoria led to a 22% stock market rally with an average VIX of 11.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/47572571-17123318115360155.png\" alt=\"x\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Charlie Bilello<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">That was the lowest volatility in 52 years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">But guess what? The market gains have been justified mainly by solid fundamentals.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The economy appears to be accelerating, with report after report beating to the upside.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Solid jobs and a strong economy are always and forever good news for stocks.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">If you&#8217;re a long-term investor sticking to your personally optimized asset allocation, interest rates rising are not a concern.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Short-term traders? They&#8217;re the only ones who have to worry about interest rates. What about the rest of us?<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what\u2019s actually happening to the companies in which you\u2019ve invested.\u201d\u2014 Peter Lynch<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4682512-vflo-my-favorite-dividend-etf-for-todays-accelerating-economy?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Please note that this week is the quarterly Master List fundamentals update. Every quarter, after earnings, I update all necessary fundamentals for the DK 500 Master List, which enables valuation-based ratings to operate automatically in real time. Thus, this is the reason for just one article this week. Here&#8217;s my ZEUS Family fund holdings&#8217; weekly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8143,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-90457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>VFLO: My Favorite Dividend ETF For Today&#039;s Accelerating Economy (NASDAQ:VFLO) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Please note that this week is the quarterly Master List fundamentals update. 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