{"id":90154,"date":"2024-03-14T07:56:56","date_gmt":"2024-03-14T11:56:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=90154"},"modified":"2024-03-14T07:56:58","modified_gmt":"2024-03-14T11:56:58","slug":"ample-supply-to-hold-down-oil-prices-as-middle-east-risks-pale-reuters-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=90154","title":{"rendered":"Ample supply to hold down oil prices as Middle East risks pale: Reuters poll"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

By Anjana Anil<\/p>\n

(Reuters) – The Middle East conflict is unlikely to move the needle much in oil markets this year with ample global supplies reining prices in around the current $80 a barrel level, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.<\/p>\n

A survey of 40 economists and analysts forecast would average $81.13 per barrel in 2024, slightly down from the $81.44 consensus in January. forecasts were cut to $76.54 a barrel, from $77.26 last month.<\/p>\n

“Disruption in the Red Sea has less impact because there are alternative routes available,” said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors, referring to attacks on shipping by Yemen’s Houthis.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 “It is unlikely that the volumes of oils being shipped will be materially impacted, and supply\/demand fundamentals will be a more important factor as we move into Q2 and Q3,” he added.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs forecast a summer Brent peak of $87 per barrel, noting that the geopolitical risk premium remains modest, with only a $2 per barrel boost to Brent, and crude production remaining unaffected.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 “Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months,” said Florian Grunberger, senior analyst at data and analytics firm Kpler.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The largest OPEC producers and some of their allies – a group known as OPEC+ – have the capacity to pump more oil as a consequence of decisions to curb output.<\/p>\n

“It is not until larger voluntary cuts get released back into the market during the summer months, once global balances tighten, that we’ll see a potential decline in spare capacity and a change in overall sentiment,” Grunberger said.<\/p>\n

OPEC+ in November agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million bpd for the first quarter. The group is expected to announce a decision in March on whether or not it will extend these cuts to bolster prices.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The International Energy Agency estimates that OPEC’s total spare capacity is 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd), of which 3.2 million bpd is held by Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 “Production cuts have supported oil prices, but some members appear increasingly eager to increase output,” said William Weatherburn, analyst at Capital Economics. <\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0“OPEC’s own forecasts for oil demand are fairly robust, and this may be used to justify a slight increase in output in second quarter,” he added.<\/p>\n

Most analysts expect global oil demand to grow by somewhere between 1 million and 1.5 million bpd in 2024. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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