Sales for retailers on Cyber Monday are expected to be strong. Early reports suggest Black Friday sales were good. Travel is up. Oil prices are down from their peak, which should help reduce gasoline costs through the holidays.<\/p>\n
In short, the Goldilocks scenario for the economy is still possible. Growth looks like it\u2019s holding up even after the most aggressive cycle of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases in a generation. And inflation is coming down. New data on the personal consumption expenditures index, a key inflation indicator, on Thursday will add to the picture. <\/p>\n
Speeches by Fed officials Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, and Loretta Mester on Tuesday and Wednesday will also be helpful for understanding how the central bank is viewing the economy. Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Friday. At this point, it looks like stocks could enjoy a Santa rally in a year when things have already been good.<\/p>\n
The tricky part is what comes next.
\n Deutsche Bank
\n just put out its 2024 World Outlook and sees tough times ahead. Its forecasters note the lagged effects of rate hikes have yet to come through. Advanced economies in Europe and the U.S. are headed for tepid growth at best, and the risk of U.S. recession hasn\u2019t disappeared.<\/p>\n
A year from now, this Christmas might well be seen as the start of a new leg up for stocks. Or it could be seen, in hindsight, as the calm before the storm. We won\u2019t know which for a few more months, so we might as well enjoy the festive season while it lasts.<\/p>\n
\u2014Brian Swint<\/em><\/p>\n *** Join Barron\u2019s deputy editor Ben Levisohn today at noon when he talks with senior writers Al Root and Nicholas Jasinski about the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks. Sign up here.<\/em><\/p>\n Both the House and Senate return to Capitol Hill this week, facing unresolved issues including a temporary government funding measure due to expire in January and President Joe Biden\u2019s $106 billion funding request for aid to Israel, Ukraine, and the U.S. southern border, among other measures.<\/p>\n What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Sunday he expects to bring Biden\u2019s request for Israel and Ukraine aid, plus other national security priorities, to a floor vote as soon as the week of Dec. 4. Negotiations between Republicans and Democrats continued through the Thanksgiving break.<\/p>\n \u2014Janet H. Cho<\/em><\/p>\n Adobe Analytics expects consumers to spend a record $12 billion on Cyber Monday today, after spending a record $9.8 billion on Black Friday, and $10 billion over the weekend. Consumers are continuing to spend, defying cautious retailer outlooks amid inflation and economic uncertainty.<\/p>\n What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Credit card issuers face another potential hit to revenue. The CFPB has proposed capping credit card late fees at $8, compared with $41 now, as part of the Biden administration\u2019s efforts to eradicate junk fees. The CFPB estimates reducing late fees could save consumers $9 billion a year.<\/p>\n \u2014Janet H. Cho and Matt Bemer<\/em><\/p>\n Oil prices were falling early Monday as members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries prepared to meet later this week.<\/p>\n What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> While OPEC is still expected to come to an agreement by Thursday, the disagreement shows the strains the bloc faces to keep all its members happy. All oil producers benefit from higher prices, but countries also want to sell as much oil as possible to maximize revenue. This meeting could be a preview of further disagreements ahead.<\/p>\n \u2014Brian Swint<\/em><\/p>\n \n Walt Disney\u2019s<\/span> What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Right now 2023 domestic box office sales have reached $8.242 billion, edging closer to expectations the industry can reach $9 billion in sales this year, Comscore\u2019s Dergarabedian said.<\/p>\n \u2014Liz Moyer<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n Nearly 3 million people were expected to return home on Sunday, which would make it the busiest day ever for U.S. air travel, according to the Transportation Security Administration, eclipsing the previous record of nearly 2.9 million who passed through airport checkpoints on June 30.<\/p>\n What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> A fast-moving storm headed for the Northeast could bring heavy rain to Philadelphia, New York, and Boston today, National Weather Service meteorologist Marc Chenard said. Parts of Western New York and Michigan could see snow this week, he said.<\/p>\n \u2014Janet H. Cho and Callum Keown<\/em><\/p>\n***<\/h4>\n
Congress Returns to Take Up Israel, Ukraine Funding Requests<\/h2>\n
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***<\/h4>\n
Cyber Monday Spending Expected to Set Holiday Records<\/h2>\n
\n
\n Salesforce.<\/span>
\n U.S. online sales rose 9% to $16.4 billion. Footwear, health and beauty, skin care, and sporting goods were among high-performing categories, Salesforce said.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\n Shopify
\n said its merchants saw a 22% increase in global sales from one year ago, to a record $4.1 billion<\/strong>. Adobe noted that Buy Now, Pay Later orders rose 72% for Nov. 18 to Nov. 24 from the week before, and revenue rose 47%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n***<\/h4>\n
OPEC Reaches Limits of Its Power Ahead of Meeting<\/h2>\n
\n
***<\/h4>\n
\n Disney\u2019s<\/span>
\n Thanksgiving Weekend Box Office Sales Disappoint<\/h2>\n
\n latest animated feature film Wish<\/em> came up short at the holiday weekend box office, dealing the company another cinematic blow just three weeks after the disappointing debut of The Marvels<\/em>. But
\n Comscore\u2019s<\/span>
\n Paul Dergarabedian said the holiday showed the movie industry was rebounding.<\/p>\n\n
\n Lionsgate Films
\n \u2019 The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes<\/em>, Comscore said. It took in another $28.8 million<\/strong> domestically in its second week, while
\n Sony\u2019s<\/span>
\n Napoleon<\/em> opened in second with domestic sales of $20.4 million.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\n -owned Universal\u2019s Trolls Band Together<\/em> was fourth over Thanksgiving weekend, notching $17.5 million in domestic box office <\/strong>sales, while Sony\u2019s Thanksgiving<\/em> came in fifth, with sales of $7.1 million.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n***<\/h4>\n
Sunday Air Travel Numbers Expected to Be Highest Ever<\/h2>\n
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***<\/h4>\n