{"id":87496,"date":"2023-11-22T10:24:21","date_gmt":"2023-11-22T15:24:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/as-sales-triple-why-ai-chip-maker-nvidias-stock-may-have-peaked\/"},"modified":"2023-11-22T10:24:24","modified_gmt":"2023-11-22T15:24:24","slug":"as-sales-triple-why-ai-chip-maker-nvidias-stock-may-have-peaked","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=87496","title":{"rendered":"As Sales Triple, Why AI-Chip Maker Nvidia\u2019s Stock May Have Peaked"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Nvidia zoomed past growth expectations in its third quarter \u2014 tripling revenue, according to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/earnings\/nvidia-nvda-q3-earnings-report-2024-c5fed357?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">Wall Street Journal<\/em>. So why did the GPU-maker\u2019s stock lose 1.7% in afterhours trading following the boffo earnings announcement?<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of zoom, one explanation could be investors anticipate this quarter is as good as it can get for Nvidia investors.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s what happened to Zoom Video back in October 2020 \u2014 months after it reported 355% revenue growth for its August 2020 ending quarter. Since then, Zoom stock has lost 89% of its value and its revenue growth has slowed to 3%.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps the analogy between videoconferencing during the pandemic and GPU chips during a Generative AI boom is imperfect.<\/p>\n<p>However, after Nvidia stock soared 249% this year as of November 21 \u2014 compared to the S&amp;P 500\u2019s 19% \u2014 perhaps investors are beginning to wonder how long the company can keep exceeding such high growth expectations.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Nvidia\u2019s Outstanding Fiscal Third Quarter Performance<\/h2>\n<p>The general rule of stock market investing is to buy shares in companies you think will exceed investor expectations and raise guidance. The media is not unanimous on whether Nvidia did that.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>Here are the highlights of the GPU-maker\u2019s third quarter report, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/11\/21\/nvidia-nvda-q3-earnings-report-2024.html\">CNBC<\/em>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Q3 Revenue up 206% to $18.12 billion<\/strong>, nearly $2 billion more than the analyst consensus.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Q3 Adjusted earnings per share up 46% to $4.02 per share<\/strong> \u2014 65 cents per share more than the analyst consensus.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Q4 Revenue guidance of 231% growth to $20 billion \u2014 <\/strong>about $2 billion more than the analyst consensus, according to the <em>Journal<\/em>. To be sure, Nvidia\u2019s revenue guidance fell short of $21 billion \u2014 the highest such forecast, <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/nvidia-investors-ho-hum-reaction-213957076.html\">Bloomberg<\/em> reported.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Investors may have taken issue with Nvidia\u2019s uncertainty about its China revenue. That\u2019s because the Biden administration imposed export controls preventing Nvidia from selling its fastest GPUs to China.<\/p>\n<p>In October, the Commerce Department blocked Nvidia from selling China-specific chips it developed in 2022 until it had obtained a license from the department \u2014 jeopardizing about $5 billion of Chinese orders for chips to be delivered in 2024. the <em>Journal<\/em> noted.<\/p>\n<p>On Tuesday, Nvidia told investors those export controls had no meaningful impact in the third quarter but could lower its long-term sales to China.<\/p>\n<p>The company\u2019s China sales will \u201cdecline significantly\u201d in the fourth quarter, according to a shareholder letter from Nvidia CFO, Colette Kress. She added, &#8220;We do not have good visibility into the magnitude of that impact even over the long-term.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>To be fair, Nvidia announced November 21 its progress in developing GPUs it would be able to sell in the Chinese market while complying the export control. Analysts said the chip designer has developed \u201cthree chips for the Chinese market and plans to release them soon,\u201d according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/nvidias-ai-heft-power-results-again-wall-st-seeks-china-clarity-2023-11-20\/\">Reuters<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Those chips \u2014 while delivering \u201ca sharp reduction in overall performance\u201d \u2014 may appeal to Chinese customers while being more palatable to U.S. regulators,&#8221; wrote Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon in a November investor note.<\/p>\n<p>Nvdia\u2019s is optimistic about its growth prospects. CEO Jensen Huang \u201cpushed back strongly\u201d in response to questions about whether the company\u2019s data center growth has peaked.<\/p>\n<p>He told investors Nvidia is adding more chip supply and the expanding adoption of AI hardware by software providers, governments and corporate customers \u2014 gives Huang confidence GPU demand from \u201cdata centers can grow through 2025,\u201d <em>Bloomberg<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Does Zoom Video\u2019s Sad Trajectory Presage Nvidia\u2019s?<\/h2>\n<p>How long can Nvidia keep growing faster than 200% a year? I do not know. However, I would be shocked if that growth rate continues for, say, the next five years.<\/p>\n<p>Should Nvidia one day report slower than expected revenue and lowered guidance, its stock will surely plunge.<\/p>\n<p>That is what happened to Zoom Video \u2014 shares of which trade about where they were in April 2019 when the videoconferencing provider went public at $65 a share.<\/p>\n<p>The stock peaked at $559 in October 2020 \u2014 following a 355% surge in Zoom\u2019s revenue for fiscal second quarter 2021 (ending in July 2020) \u2014 the shares have since lost 89% of its value.<\/p>\n<p>The astounding growth was due to a \u201cusage surge during the work-from-home and school-at-home boom spurred by\u201d the Covid-19 pandemic, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.investors.com\/news\/technology\/zm-stock-zoom-video-communications-beats-q3-targets\/\">Investor\u2019s Business Daily<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>My guess is slowing growth contributed to the decline in Zoom stock from that peak. Indeed in November 2020, Zoom forecast 300% growth for its fiscal year 2021 to $2.5 billion \u2014 very high but a noticeable slowdown from the 355% growth the company enjoyed in the July 2020-ending quarter .<\/p>\n<p>Growth at Zoom has since nearly nearly flat lined. For the fiscal third quarter ending October 2023, Zoom revenue grew a mere 3% to $1.14 billion while earnings increased to $1.09 a share. Zoom predicted $1.13 billion in revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter \u2014 meeting investor expectations, noted <em>IBD<\/em><fbs-ticker data-name=\"IBD\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/investment-funds\/ibd\/\" data-type=\"etf\"><br \/>\n  IBD<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>.<\/p>\n<p>Zoom expressed confidence in the company\u2019s performance. \u201cIn Q3, revenue came in ahead of guidance as we bolstered Zoom&#8217;s all-in-one intelligent collaboration platform with advanced new capabilities like Zoom AI Companion and continued to evolve our customer and employee engagement solutions,&#8221; CEO Eric Yuan said in a news release.<\/p>\n<p>Zoom certainly is not Nvidia. As I learned from interviewing Yuan, he started Zoom knowing the company was entering a crowded market. He believed he could create a company that would delight employees and customers.<\/p>\n<p>During the pandemic, Zoom lived up to that promise and it benefited greatly from the resulting surge in demand for its services. As the pandemic ended, Zoom did not find a new growth curve.<\/p>\n<p>This raises a fundamental question for Nvidia investors: Will the chip designer \u2014 which now dominates the AI GPU market \u2014 have built a new source of 200% growth after the current surge in demand for Generative AI GPUs slows down?<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What\u2019s Next For Nvidia Stock<\/h2>\n<p>Analysts do not see Nvidia slowing down in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGPU demand continues to outpace supply as Gen AI adoption broadens across industry verticals,\u201d Raymond James\u2019 Srini Pajjuri and Jacob Silverman wrote in a November 20 note. They added, \u201cWe are not overly concerned about competition and expect NVDA to maintain &gt;85% share in Gen AI accelerators even in 2024,\u201d <em>CNBC<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Despite competitive challenges, with its even-more advanced H2000 AI chips expected in 2024, Nvidia will maintain its hold on \u201cmore than 85% of the market for generative-AI chips next year,\u201d according to the <em>Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>If the GPU designer can do a better job than Zoom did at creating a fast-growing future after the current Generative AI demand boom slows down, investors may continue to benefit from owning Nvidia stock.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/11\/22\/as-sales-triple-why-ai-chip-maker-nvidias-stock-may-have-peaked\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nvidia zoomed past growth expectations in its third quarter \u2014 tripling revenue, according to the Wall Street Journal. So why did the GPU-maker\u2019s stock lose 1.7% in afterhours trading following the boffo earnings announcement? Speaking of zoom, one explanation could be investors anticipate this quarter is as good as it can get for Nvidia investors. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":87497,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-87496","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>As Sales Triple, Why AI-Chip Maker Nvidia\u2019s Stock May Have Peaked | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nvidia zoomed past growth expectations in its third quarter \u2014 tripling revenue, according to the Wall Street Journal. 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