{"id":87253,"date":"2023-11-21T20:31:46","date_gmt":"2023-11-22T01:31:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/aroundtown-big-discount-to-nav-but-risk-reward-not-attractive-enough-otcmktsaannf\/"},"modified":"2023-11-21T20:31:48","modified_gmt":"2023-11-22T01:31:48","slug":"aroundtown-big-discount-to-nav-but-risk-reward-not-attractive-enough-otcmktsaannf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=87253","title":{"rendered":"Aroundtown: Big Discount To NAV But Risk\/Reward Not Attractive Enough (OTCMKTS:AANNF)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>We present our note on Aroundtown (OTCPK:AANNF), the Frankfurt-listed property firm, with a Hold rating. The company has built a real estate empire on the back of low rates and is now facing significant pressure with a different interest<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> rate environment and rental market fundamentals. We will briefly describe the company, its history, and its portfolio, discuss underlying trends and operational performance, analyze the firm\u2019s balance sheet and deleveraging measures, value the shares, and examine risks.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"><strong>Introduction to Aroundtown<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Aroundtown is a leading real estate company with a focus on income-generating quality properties with value-add potential primarily in Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK. Key asset classes include hotels and offices, and the firm also owns a majority stake in Grand City Properties, a listed real estate company investing in the German residential real estate market. The group<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> was founded in 2004 by Yakir Gabay, the Cypriot-Israeli billionaire, who owns ca. 15% of outstanding shares through investment vehicles Avisco Group and Vergepoint.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The group\u2019s business model centers around centrally located assets in top-tier German and Dutch cities; operational performance improvements including rent increases, occupancy increases, and lease extensions; extraction of synergies and economies of scale; and high cash generation while maintaining low leverage and a conservative financial profile. Aroundtown\u2019s portfolio has an area of around 9587k sqm, an average rent of \u20ac10.6 per sqm, and 7.3 years of weighted average lease term. The distribution of the portfolio by asset type (by value) is the following: 41% Office, 32% Residential, 20% Hotel, 5% Other and Retail, and 2% Logistics. In terms of regional distribution, 25% of the portfolio is located in Berlin, 14% in North Rhein-Westphalia, and 8% in London.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Aroundtown has a current market capitalization of ca. \u20ac3.4 billion, representing a nearly 70% discount to EPRA NRV as of June 2023. The company has lost nearly three-quarters of its market value from its peak in February 2020.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/52633765-17006009015831664.png\" alt=\"A chart of different types of asset type Description automatically generated\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Aroundtown H1 Results Presentation<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Operating performance trends<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Aroundtown is focused on maintaining stable occupancy levels, especially in office properties, given the unfavorable current market dynamics. Meanwhile, the hotels segment is still in recovery and the residential market faces supply-demand disparity, leading to 3.4% rental income like-for-like growth in H1. Despite rental income increases, we believe more expensive financing will lead to a negative net FFO effect in the mid-high single-digit percentage range.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/52633765-17006009039477084.png\" alt=\"A graph of a company's performance Description automatically generated with medium confidence\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Aroundtown H1 Results Presentation<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Balance sheet stress and deleveraging<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Low-interest rates allowed the firm to amass a real estate portfolio with a book value of nearly \u20ac30 billion. However, the rates backdrop has significantly changed and Aroundtown\u2019s leverage situation is not sustainable over the long term. The increasing cost of debt puts pressure on profitability, and the interest coverage ratio is likely to drop over the mid-term, potentially leading to credit rating downgrades and even higher financing costs in turn. LTV (loan-to-value) covenants still look comfortable, and the portfolio would need to devalue by ca. 40% to trigger a breach. However, the market would like more disclosure on the portfolio, and it is reasonable to believe that the current property valuations in Aroundtown\u2019s accounts aren\u2019t congruent with the prevailing market conditions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We would like to note that Aroundtown and its subsidiaries have ca. \u20ac5 billion in perpetual debt, callable until 2026. We see some additional risks related to these instruments. If not called these instruments will remain perpetual but be considered fully as debt post the call date by credit rating agencies. The repriced financing cost is likely to lead to even lower interest coverage ratios and can potentially trigger LTV covenants at a much lower (and realistic) portfolio devaluation of around low double-digit percentage points. This is not our base case scenario, but we believe it should be monitored closely.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Aroundtown has sold in excess of \u20ac6 billion of assets since 2020, which has helped to keep leverage at bay, however, the balance sheet needs to be deleveraged further to a sustainable long-term ratio. This depends largely on property market conditions and presents additional issues. If higher-quality assets are sold, portfolio quality will drop sharply. Meanwhile, if lower quality assets are sold, that is likely to happen below book value, which would lead to Aroundtown booking losses and leverage ratios deteriorating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/52633765-17006008952601645.png\" alt=\"Slide from results presentation\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Aroundtown H1 Results Presentation<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Valuation and investment recommendation<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We value Aroundtown using a dividend discount model. Our estimates are largely in line with the sell-side analyst consensus. We forecast \u20ac1.2 billion of net rents in FY2024, around \u20ac1.1 billion of EBITDA, and ca. \u20ac300 million of FFO. We assume a long-term FFO payout ratio of 90% (over the long term), hence \u20ac270 million of dividends per year. We assume a 10% cost of equity and a long-term growth rate of 2% in line with the underlying long-term growth rates of OECD countries. This implies an equity value of \u20ac3.4 billion, implying virtually no upside. Moreover, we estimate a nearly \u20ac8 billion headline NTA by the end of FY2024. As the return on capital is significantly lower than the cost of capital, a major discount to NTA is warranted, likely higher than historical levels to reflect the current uncertainties.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We believe Aroundtown does not have an attractive risk\/reward and we would avoid buying the shares until the valuation is more appealing, the balance sheet looks better, or interest rates are down and commercial real estate market fundamentals improve.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Risks<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Downside risks include but are not limited to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, deteriorating rental market fundamentals, higher than expected interest rates straining FFO and leading to less favorable financing conditions, accelerating remote work trends leading to lower office space demand, adverse regulatory changes, operational underperformance, failure to deliver on deleveraging leading to the need for an equity raise, capital misallocation, governance risk, etc.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We find the risk\/reward unattractive, and we have a neutral rating on Aroundtown shares.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Editor&#8217;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4653548-aroundtown-stock-big-discount-nav-risk-reward-not-attractive-enough?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We present our note on Aroundtown (OTCPK:AANNF), the Frankfurt-listed property firm, with a Hold rating. The company has built a real estate empire on the back of low rates and is now facing significant pressure with a different interest rate environment and rental market fundamentals. We will briefly describe the company, its history, and its [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":87254,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-87253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Aroundtown: Big Discount To NAV But Risk\/Reward Not Attractive Enough (OTCMKTS:AANNF) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We present our note on Aroundtown (OTCPK:AANNF), the Frankfurt-listed property firm, with a Hold rating. 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