{"id":87226,"date":"2023-11-21T18:30:03","date_gmt":"2023-11-21T23:30:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/is-hsbc-a-good-choice-for-dividend-investors-nysehsbc\/"},"modified":"2023-11-21T18:30:05","modified_gmt":"2023-11-21T23:30:05","slug":"is-hsbc-a-good-choice-for-dividend-investors-nysehsbc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=87226","title":{"rendered":"Is HSBC A Good Choice For Dividend Investors? (NYSE:HSBC)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>As one of the UK\u2019s leading banks, HSBC (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NYSE:HSBC<\/span>) needs little in the way of an introduction.<\/p>\n<p>All I\u2019ll say in these opening remarks is that HSBC is the third largest company in FTSE 100 and it\u2019s<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> the largest bank in the FTSE 100 by a considerable margin.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">It\u2019s also a favourite with income funds and dividend investors and, with its share price at \u00a36.15, it has an attractive dividend yield of 4.2%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">That combination of size and yield puts HSBC in 22nd place on my list of top UK dividend stocks, so I think it&#8217;s worth looking at this bank in a bit more detail.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">HSBC\u2019s share price is low relative to earnings and dividends<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/saupload_6ad7ad-1da7-7c-cfe7-1c400b2f56c5_HSBC_share_price_chart.png\" alt=\"HSBC share price chart\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">HSBC&#8217;s share price hasn&#8217;t exactly set the world on fire these last ten years. In fact, the share price is down slightly since<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> 2013, and that&#8217;s one reason why the dividend yield is a not insignificant 4.2%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The FTSE All-Share (at 4,088) has a dividend yield of 3.9%, so HSBC\u2019s yield is slightly above the market average, which is a good place to start.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As well as comparing the share price to last year&#8217;s dividend, it&#8217;s also a good idea to compare it to the company&#8217;s <em>average <\/em>dividend from the last ten years. The resulting <em>PD10 ratio<\/em> comes in at 18, which is comfortably below the FTSE All-Share average of 30.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Turning to earnings, HSBC&#8217;s price-earnings ratio is 10, which is quite low. However, earnings are volatile enough to make the standard PE ratio an unreliable measure of value. That&#8217;s why I prefer the PE10 ratio, which compares today\u2019s share price to the company\u2019s average earnings over the last ten years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In this case, HSBC\u2019s PE10 ratio is 14, which is below the FTSE All-Share average of 18.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">And so, on this very limited evidence, it seems that HSBC\u2019s share price <em>is<\/em> low relative to its earnings and dividends.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">But is this low price justified because this is a low-quality company, or are we looking at a high-quality company whose shares are being undervalued by an overly-pessimistic stock market?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">To answer that, let&#8217;s have a look at HSBC&#8217;s financial track record, starting with growth.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Consistent dividend growth has been lacking<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Quality dividend stocks usually produce relatively consistent growth over long periods of time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For banks, I want to see reasonably consistent growth across three key numbers on a per-share basis:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <strong>Shareholder equity<\/strong> (as this is the foundation upon which the business stands)<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Assets<\/strong> (as this tells us whether the bank is lending more to its customers)<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Dividends<\/strong> (as dividend investors obviously want to see dividends growing ahead of inflation)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Unfortunately, HSBC has utterly failed to produce consistent inflation-beating growth over the last decade.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/saupload_682051b-d034-6db-af22-a515b3eedf30_HSBC_growth_chart.png\" alt=\"HSBC growth has been week since the financial crisis\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>SharePad<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Taking each of those three key numbers in turn:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <strong>Shareholder equity<\/strong> didn\u2019t grow at all over the last ten years<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Assets<\/strong> grew at a very pedestrian and below-inflation rate of 1%, and<\/li>\n<li>having been cut during the pandemic, the <strong>dividend<\/strong> now remains 37% below its pre-pandemic level<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Across these three metrics, HSBC has an average ten-year growth rate of <em>minus <\/em>3%, which is obviously below inflation. It\u2019s also below my minimum hurdle rate of <em>plus <\/em>3%, so I would consider this lack of growth a <strong>red flag<\/strong> as it breaks one of my rules:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <strong>Rule of thumb<\/strong>: Only invest if the ten-year growth rate is above 3%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Looking at the company\u2019s recent annual results, the CEO is equally unimpressed. In the 2020 annual report, he announced a significantly refreshed growth strategy:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>\u201cThe growth plans we are announcing today aim to establish HSBC as a dynamic, efficient and agile global bank with a digital-first mindset, capable of providing a world-leading service to our customers and strong returns for our investors\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The introduction of a new strategy to radically improve HSBC\u2019s performance makes it clear that HSBC is a turnaround stock. Unfortunately, that is another <strong>red flag <\/strong>because most quality dividend stocks don\u2019t need turning around because they\u2019re already heading in the right direction.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This isn&#8217;t a great start, but let&#8217;s carry on and have a look at HSBC in terms of profitability.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Profitability has been consistently sub-par<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For most companies, my go-to profitability metrics are net return on capital and net return on sales (i.e., profit margin).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Banks don\u2019t generate much in the way of \u201csales\u201d, so like most investors, I look at their net interest margins instead. If you aren&#8217;t familiar with net interest margin, it tells us how much interest a bank earns on its loans after paying interest on current accounts and other sources of funding.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/saupload_ce3485-734f-70-c63d-6bf1647c011_HSBC_net_interest_margins_and_returns_on_capital_chart.png\" alt=\"HSBC margins and returns on capital have been weak\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Let\u2019s start with net return on capital because it\u2019s one of the most informative metrics in investing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">If a company can <em>consistently<\/em> earn high rates of return on capital, there is a good chance that it has at least one durable competitive advantage. Why? Because if it didn\u2019t, other firms would offer better and\/or cheaper products and services and compete away those excess returns.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The minimum acceptable net return on capital for most companies is around 7%. That\u2019s because 7% is the average return investors have historically achieved by putting their money into a simple index tracker.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">HSBC has, for most of the last decade, failed to produce even that minimal level of return, with its average net return on capital languishing at just 5%. Even worse, its net return on capital only exceeded 7% in two of the last ten years, so HSBC\u2019s returns have been <em>consistently <\/em>sub-par.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This is not good. Companies that produce <em>consistently<\/em> weak returns on capital usually lack durable competitive advantages, which means they are very probably <em>not <\/em>high-quality businesses.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This is why I use the following rule of thumb:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <strong>Rule of thumb<\/strong>: Only invest if net returns on capital are consistently above 7%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">HSBC fails to meet that standard, and that is another <strong>red flag<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As for net interest margins, HSBC has produced an average net interest margin of 3% over the last ten years, which is mediocre at best. Even worse, its net interest margin was below 3% for about half of those ten years, and although some of that is due to the excessively low interest rates set by central banks after the financial crisis, that is a weak and feeble excuse.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">These low margins mean that HSBC breaks another one of my rules of thumb:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <strong>Rule of thumb<\/strong>: Only invest in a bank if its net interest margins are consistently above 3%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This adds another <strong>red flag <\/strong>to HSBC\u2019s growing collection.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I am not alone in thinking that HSBC\u2019s returns are unacceptably low.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In the 2019 annual report, the company\u2019s CEO said, <em>\u201cparts of our business are not delivering acceptable returns. We are therefore outlining a revised plan to increase returns for investors, create the capacity for future investment, and build a platform for sustainable growth\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Once again, HSBC appears to be a supertanker that is attempting to turn itself around after meandering into dangerous waters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">To be honest, at this point, I would usually throw in the towel, because HSBC has failed to grow over the last ten years and, more importantly, it has failed to produce even mediocre levels of profitability.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">There is, in short, no chance that HSBC will end up in my UK Dividend Stocks Portfolio anytime soon.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">However, in the name of completeness, I want to round out this review by looking at HSBC\u2019s balance sheet, as it could be one reason why the bank\u2019s profitability has been so uninspiring in recent years.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">HSBC\u2019s strong balance sheet could be a problem<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">When we measure the strength of a bank&#8217;s balance sheet, we&#8217;re mostly interested in understanding how much of the loan book could default before the bank becomes insolvent. Or, more realistically, before it has to carry out a major rights issue to avoid becoming insolvent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Balance sheet strength is mainly measured using leverage ratios or capital ratios, and the most important ratio is the common equity tier 1 ratio. This ratio tells us how much \u201ctier 1\u201d capital (which mostly consists of shareholder equity) is available to absorb loan defaults as a percentage of the bank&#8217;s risk-weighted loans.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The common equity tier 1 ratio is defined by regulators, so there is a risk that it may change if regulation changes in the future. To avoid that risk, I also use the tangible common equity ratio, which can be calculated directly from the balance sheet as the ratio of tangible equity to total loans and advances.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/saupload_b61f87d-46ac-4cbd-7655-e883e0bb612b_HSBC_equity_buffer.png\" alt=\"HSBC's equity buffer has become extremely large\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The good news is that HSBC\u2019s capital ratios have been consistently above 10% over the last ten years, which is a night-and-day difference between the level of capital held by most banks before the financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Lloyds bank (LYG), for example, had a tangible common equity ratio of 3.9% in 2007. That means, very simplistically, that Lloyds could have become insolvent if a mere 4% of its loans went unpaid.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In reality, banks typically carry out major rights issues long before they become insolvent, so the margin of safety for Lloyds was probably much thinner than 4%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">HSBC wasn\u2019t as under-capitalised as Lloyds back then, but it <em>was<\/em> undercapitalised, with a tangible common equity ratio of just 7.3%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">But that was then and this is now, and HSBC\u2019s equity buffer is now more than twice as strong at around 15% today. That\u2019s a level most bank CEOs would have considered recklessly prudent in 2007, but in 2007, most bank CEOs had no idea how to run a bank.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Thanks to this increasing level of prudence, HSBC easily passes my balance sheet rule of thumb:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <strong>Rule of thumb<\/strong>: Only invest in a bank if its tier 1 and tangible common equity ratios are consistently above 10%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Although it&#8217;s good that HSBC has a strong balance sheet, there is perhaps a grain of truth in the idea that HSBC\u2019s balance sheet has become <em>too strong<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Of course, I\u2019m an outsider and I have no special insights into the quality of the bank\u2019s loans, but a 15% equity buffer for a mainstream bank does seem to be <em>very<\/em> conservative.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">That level of conservatism limits the amount of lending the bank can do, and that could be one reason why HSBC has failed to generate acceptable returns on capital in recent years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">That&#8217;s an interesting question, but it isn\u2019t one I intend to answer, because I have no intention of investing in this mediocre bank. Instead, let\u2019s take a step back and look at the big picture.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">HSBC has been trying to turn itself around since the financial crisis<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The global financial crisis sent cataclysmic shockwaves throughout the global banking industry and those shockwaves are still reverberating today.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Because of that crisis, most of the big banks had to spend years rebuilding the quality of their loan books, rebuilding their balance sheets and rebuilding trust with an understandably sceptical public.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">HSBC did come through the crisis in much better shape than many of its peers, but that doesn&#8217;t make it a high-quality business.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">What defines a high-quality business is the ability to <em>consistently<\/em> earn high rates of return on capital, with those returns being used to fuel an income for shareholders today and growth for the future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">With HSBC, growth has been non-existent, returns on capital have been unacceptably weak and although its balance sheet appears to be extremely robust, there are no obvious signs that HSBC has any durable competitive advantages over its peers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">On that basis, I will be adding HSBC to my blacklist of uninvestable stocks, where it will remain for at least five years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Perhaps, by then, the CEO will have turned this supertanker around, but I&#8217;m not going to hold my breath.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>P.S.<\/strong> I realise that I haven&#8217;t looked at the operational side of HSBC in this review, and you may be wondering why.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The reason is that if a company hasn&#8217;t produced high returns on capital and consistent growth in the past, then it is unlikely to produce high returns on capital and consistent growth in the future. And if a company is unlikely to produce those results, the operational details of that business are irrelevant, at least from an investment point of view.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Original Post<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em><strong>Editor&#8217;s Note:<\/strong> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4653537-is-hsbc-good-choice-for-dividend-investors?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As one of the UK\u2019s leading banks, HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) needs little in the way of an introduction. All I\u2019ll say in these opening remarks is that HSBC is the third largest company in FTSE 100 and it\u2019s the largest bank in the FTSE 100 by a considerable margin. It\u2019s also a favourite with income funds [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":87227,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-87226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is HSBC A Good Choice For Dividend Investors? (NYSE:HSBC) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As one of the UK\u2019s leading banks, HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) needs little in the way of an introduction. 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