{"id":86843,"date":"2023-11-20T21:42:57","date_gmt":"2023-11-21T02:42:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/why-sam-altmans-new-job-could-boost-microsoft-stock\/"},"modified":"2023-11-20T21:42:59","modified_gmt":"2023-11-21T02:42:59","slug":"why-sam-altmans-new-job-could-boost-microsoft-stock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=86843","title":{"rendered":"Why Sam Altman\u2019s New Job Could Boost Microsoft Stock"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>On November 17, OpenAI fired Sam Altman as CEO. By November 19 \u2014 after Altman failed to win back his job \u2014 Microsoft hired him and former OpenAI president Greg Brockman to run a new advanced AI research lab. Microsoft also said it was committed to its partnership with OpenAI, according to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/tech\/ai\/openai-leadership-hangs-in-balance-as-sam-altmans-counte-rebellion-gains-steam-47276fa8?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">Wall Street Journal<\/em><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>What does this mean for Microsoft investors? The market is optimistic. After falling about 1.6% on Friday after word of Altman\u2019s firing, Microsoft stock recovered any lost value by Monday morning \u2014 up 2.5% in pre-market trading to a record high of $379.18 per share, the <em>Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>But these leadership changes raise investing questions \u2014 the answers to which could affect the value of Microsoft\u2019s Generative AI strategy. Here are some that come to mind:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Will Emmett Shear, former chief executive of Twitch and now interim CEO, be able to sustain the rapid growth OpenAI enjoyed under Altman?<\/li>\n<li>Can Altman\u2019s new position at Microsoft result in faster releases of more powerful versions of ChatGPT and otherwise accelerate the software company\u2019s growth?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If Shear cannot keep up the pace, the value of Microsoft\u2019s 49% OpenAI stake could grow more slowly. What\u2019s more, intellectual property considerations have the potential to limit what Altman \u2014 and other former OpenAI employees joining him \u2014 can apply to Microsoft\u2019s Generative AI business.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>Microsoft and Altman expressed optimism. The software giant said, \u201cit was committed to its partnership with OpenAI and would move quickly to provide Altman and Brockman with \u2018the resources needed for their success,\u2019 \u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> reported. \u201cThe mission continues,\u201d Altman wrote on X \u2014 reposting a tweet from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Microsoft Hires Sam Altman<\/h2>\n<p>Between Friday and Sunday, Sam Altman went from being fired from OpenAI \u2014 the San Francisco-based large language model developer in which Microsoft has invested more than $13 billion for a 49% stake \u2014 to a new role as head of Microsoft\u2019s advanced AI research lab, according to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/11\/20\/technology\/openai-altman-ceo-not-returning.html\">New York Times<\/em><fbs-ticker data-name=\"NYT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/new-york-times\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  NYT<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>.<\/p>\n<p>OpenAI\u2019s board fired Altman because it apparently could not supervise him properly. A memo signed by each of OpenAI\u2019s board members \u2014 Adam D\u2019Angelo, Helen Toner, Ilya Sutskever, and Tasha McCauley \u2014 said, \u201cSam\u2019s behavior and lack of transparency in his interactions with the board undermined the board\u2019s ability to effectively supervise the company,\u201d the <em>Times<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Over the weekend, Altman tried unsuccessfully to win back his job as OpenAI CEO. Microsoft and venture-capital firm Thrive Capital pressured the OpenAI board members to return Altman to his job; however, they did not change their minds due to \u201cAltman\u2019s insistence that the current board resign,\u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>It is not exactly clear what Altman will do at Microsoft. Altman and Brockman will lead an advanced AI research team \u201calongside unspecified colleagues,\u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> reported. Microsoft will provide \u201cthe resources needed for their success,\u201d Nadella posted on X late Sunday.<\/p>\n<p>Altman\u2019s strengths strike me as the ability to attract outstanding talent, to persuade investors to part with their capital, and to communicate with government officials \u2014 possibly helping to shape their approach to regulating Generative AI.<\/p>\n<p>Microsoft could be better off if Altman and Brockman can bring in more talent to Microsoft \u2014 possibly including OpenAI employees who resigned in the wake of Altman\u2019s firing.<\/p>\n<p>However, key questions remain:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Will Microsoft continue to rely on OpenAI for creating new GPT versions or will that responsibility shift to Altman\u2019s new team at Microsoft?<\/li>\n<li>Will Altman\u2019s talent for raising capital and talking with world leaders still be as useful within Microsoft?<\/li>\n<li>Will Altman\u2019s new team at Microsoft invent new GPT models that surpass the ones OpenAI launches under new leadership?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">OpenAI Hires A New Interim CEO<\/h2>\n<p>When Altman lost his job at OpenAI, the startup\u2019s board temporarily replaced him with an interim CEO, Mira Murati, who previously served as the company\u2019s chief technology officer, noted the <em>Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>On Sunday, OpenAI replaced Murati \u2014 who also will remain as the company\u2019s CTO \u2014 with Shear. He has garnered mixed reviews. Shear was a video gamer who \u201cled Twitch through its transformation from an upstart platform called Justin.tv to a behemoth that was acquired by Amazon<fbs-ticker data-name=\"AMZN\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/amazon\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  AMZN<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> in 2014,\u201d the <em>Times<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Shear \u2014 who stayed at Amazon until 2023 \u2014 was viewed as competent. Yet critics perceived him to be too focused on cost-cutting and making the money-losing site profitable, noted the <em>Times<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>From Microsoft\u2019s perspective, Shear could slow OpenAI\u2019s growth trajectory, which might lower the value of the software giant\u2019s 49% stake in the startup. That\u2019s because Shear \u201cpublicly advocated for a slower rollout of AI\u201d prior to joining OpenAI, reported the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/54e36c93-08e5-4a9e-bda6-af673c3e9bb5\">Financial Times<\/em><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Of course, it remains to be seen how long Shear will remain at OpenAI and whether he can hold on to its talented employees and maintain its growth.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How Microsoft\u2019s Generative AI Strategy Will Change<\/h2>\n<p>In my view, the changes at OpenAI and Microsoft will not alter what I see as Microsoft\u2019s four competitive advantages in Generative AI. However, I do think the potential value of Microsoft\u2019s 49% stake likely will be less significant than it was under Altman\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n<p>The good news is Microsoft\u2019s software industry dominance could enable its ChatGPT-powered Copilot service to boost the company\u2019s revenue by $35 billion.<\/p>\n<p>How so? As I noted in an October 2023 piece on <em>Forbes<\/em>, analysts from investment firm New Enterprise Associates wrote, \u201cUnlike with the prior shifts, incumbents do not need to re-architect their entire products to adopt this new platform shift. In addition, this shift favors companies with bigger, proprietary data sets which can give an edge to more established companies.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I do not expect the changes at OpenAI to alter NEA\u2019s estimate that Copilot could add $35 billion to Microsoft\u2019s revenue assuming 10% of the company\u2019s 482 million customers would pay $60 a month for the service.<\/p>\n<p>The bad news is Microsoft\u2019s 49% stake in OpenAI could take longer to reach $100 billion.<strong> <\/strong>As I wrote last month, Oppenheimer &amp; Co. analyst Timothy Horan estimated Microsoft\u2019s 49% stake in OpenAI could be worth $100 billion.<\/p>\n<p>In October, OpenAI was expected to generate an estimated $1 billion in 2024 revenue. I am guessing Altman\u2019s departure could slow the company\u2019s growth. That should diminish the value of OpenAI and make rival LLM providers \u2014 such as Anthropic and Cohere \u2014 relatively more appealing to investors.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Where Microsoft Stock Goes Next<\/h2>\n<p>There is considerable uncertainty about where Microsoft\u2019s stock will go next. Nevertheless, I see Microsoft\u2019s sources of advantage in Generative AI as robust. Here is why:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Many sources of Generative AI revenue. <\/strong>Generative AI increases demand for Microsoft\u2019s Azure cloud services and its Copilot service could increase the prices the company charged for its Microsoft Office 365 suite.<\/li>\n<li><strong>High switching costs with a large customer base. <\/strong>Microsoft\u2019s high share of the market raises the costs for customers seeking to switch to another supplier. This makes it easier for Microsoft to introduce Generative AI services to its existing customers.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Access to excellent Generative AI technology through partnerships. <\/strong>Despite leadership changes, Microsoft\u2019s significant stake in OpenAI gives the software giant access to ChatGPT, the most popular Generative AI chatbot. Microsoft\u2019s partnerships with consulting firms also provide access to corporate decision makers.<\/li>\n<li><strong>A clear head start over rivals in monetizing Generative AI. <\/strong>Microsoft benefited from the perception among investors that the company was ahead of its rivals in the race to monetize Generative AI. Perhaps hiring Altman will enhance that perception.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I don\u2019t know how high Microsoft stock will rise. However, I expect hiring Altman to give Microsoft more options to capitalize on its lead in Generative AI.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/11\/20\/why-sam-altmans-new-job-could-boost-microsoft-stock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On November 17, OpenAI fired Sam Altman as CEO. By November 19 \u2014 after Altman failed to win back his job \u2014 Microsoft hired him and former OpenAI president Greg Brockman to run a new advanced AI research lab. Microsoft also said it was committed to its partnership with OpenAI, according to the Wall Street [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":86844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-86843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why Sam Altman\u2019s New Job Could Boost Microsoft Stock | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On November 17, OpenAI fired Sam Altman as CEO. 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