{"id":85470,"date":"2023-11-16T20:37:54","date_gmt":"2023-11-17T01:37:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/10-year-treasury-yield-sinks-to-4-4-on-softer-economic-data-walmart-ceo-talks-of-deflation\/"},"modified":"2023-11-16T20:37:56","modified_gmt":"2023-11-17T01:37:56","slug":"10-year-treasury-yield-sinks-to-4-4-on-softer-economic-data-walmart-ceo-talks-of-deflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=85470","title":{"rendered":"10-year Treasury yield sinks to 4.4% on softer economic data, Walmart CEO talks of \u2018deflation\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"js-article__body\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0002734240\" role=\"document\">\n<p>Long-duration Treasury yields fell sharply on Thursday as investors weighed cooler economic data and comments from Walmart\u2019s chief executive indicating he is bracing for a \u201cperiod of deflation.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Fed Gov. Lisa Cook also said Thursday that a soft landing for the economy remains possible, but isn\u2019t a guarantee.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<h2>What\u2019s happening<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      The yield on the 2-year Treasury<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD02Y<br \/>\n       fell 7.4 basis points to 4.84%. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      The yield on the 10-year Treasury<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD10Y<br \/>\n       retreated 9.1 basis points to 4.44%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      The yield on the 30-year Treasury<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD30Y<br \/>\n       fell 6.9 basis points to 4.622%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      The 10-year yield is down 54 basis points from the October peak and the 30-year is 47 basis points lower, according to Dow Jones Market Data.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>What\u2019s driving markets<\/h2>\n<p>Benchmark Treasury yields fell sharply Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield down more than 50 basis points from its 16-year peak of 5% in October.<\/p>\n<p>Investors have piled into bonds in recent weeks amid hopes that easing inflation and a cooling economy will allow the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by the middle of next year. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.<\/p>\n<p>Traders on Thursday focused on further signs of cooling U.S. economic activity and on quarterly results from mega retailers, including from Walmart Inc.,<br \/>\n        WMT,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/207374728\/composite\" class=\"negative\">-8.09%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       particularly after chief executive Doug McMillion said he expects to see deflation in the coming months, during the company\u2019s third-quarter earnings results early Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think maybe there is a sense that an inventory glut could happen, although I\u2019m not totally convinced of that,\u201d Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial, said in a phone call. <\/p>\n<p>Compernolle also sees signs that deteriorating growth sentiment is driving down yields further out on the Treasury market curve.<\/p>\n<p>Fed Gov. Lisa Cook on Thursday said she thinks a \u201csoft landing\u201d for the economy was possible, but not guaranteed, in a speech at the San Francisco regional bank.<\/p>\n<p>Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that easing monetary policy was not \u201cpart of the conversation right now,\u201d in a CNBC interview on Thursday.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Traders were pricing in at least a 97% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its next meeting on December 13th, and the subsequent meeting on Jan. 31, according to the CME FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n<p><strong>See:<\/strong> Stock and bond investors are convinced the Fed is finished with rate hikes. Why it isn\u2019t a done deal.<\/p>\n<p>The chances of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May meeting were pegged near 33%, up from 30% a month ago.<\/p>\n<p>The Labor Department said the number of Americans who applied for first-time unemployment benefits last week jumped to a three-month high of 231,000, suggesting some softening around the edges of a strong U.S. labor market<\/p>\n<p>The Philadelphia Fed said Thursday its gauge of regional business activity improved slightly to negative 5.9 in November from negative 9 in the prior month. Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a negative 7.5 reading in November.<\/p>\n<p>In other economic data, industrial production fell 0.6% in October, while builder confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November as mortgage rates\u00a0reached 8%.<\/p>\n<h2>What are analysts saying<\/h2>\n<p>\u201c[T]his is now the seventh time in the last two years we\u2019ve had a very clear example of markets getting excited about a dovish pivot, and on the previous six those dovish expectations have entirely unwound again,\u201d warned Jim Reid, macroeconomic strategist at Deutsche Bank.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt all started with the Omicron variant being seen as the reason the Fed wouldn\u2019t be able to raise at all in 2022\u2026At some point there will be a dovish pivot, and this could be closer than the others to it, but be wary that we\u2019ve now been to this well seven times in two years,\u201d Reid added.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/ten-year-treasury-yields-dip-to-4-5-as-market-sees-zero-chance-of-fed-hiking-rates-in-next-two-meetings-d272a1ad?mod=markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Long-duration Treasury yields fell sharply on Thursday as investors weighed cooler economic data and comments from Walmart\u2019s chief executive indicating he is bracing for a \u201cperiod of deflation.\u201d Fed Gov. Lisa Cook also said Thursday that a soft landing for the economy remains possible, but isn\u2019t a guarantee. What\u2019s happening The yield on the 2-year [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1898,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-85470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>10-year Treasury yield sinks to 4.4% on softer economic data, Walmart CEO talks of \u2018deflation\u2019 | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Long-duration Treasury yields fell sharply on Thursday as investors weighed cooler economic data and comments from Walmart\u2019s chief executive indicating he\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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