{"id":84488,"date":"2023-11-14T15:02:20","date_gmt":"2023-11-14T20:02:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/lower-inflation-and-federal-reserve-rate-cut-could-revive-the-ipo-market\/"},"modified":"2023-11-14T15:02:21","modified_gmt":"2023-11-14T20:02:21","slug":"lower-inflation-and-federal-reserve-rate-cut-could-revive-the-ipo-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=84488","title":{"rendered":"Lower Inflation And Federal Reserve Rate Cut Could Revive The IPO Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The October 2023 Consumer Price Index report showed inflation came in unchanged from the month before, according to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/central-banking\/what-to-watch-in-the-cpi-report-did-inflation-heat-up-or-cool-down-last-month-5c22f833\">Wall Street Journal<\/em>. Could the resulting drop in interest rates and soaring stock market presage a reopening of the initial public offering market?<\/p>\n<p>That would be great for startups. After all, many company founders dream of turning their ideas into a fast growing publicly traded company. About three years ago, the market for IPOs began to shut down \u2014deferring or destroying many such founders\u2019 dreams.<\/p>\n<p>Why did the IPO market shut down? In November 2021, investors suspected the Federal Reserve Bank would raise interest rates significantly for the first time in more than a decade. This expectation sent tech stocks plunging and made the IPO market look much riskier.<\/p>\n<p>This raises many related questions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Why did the IPO market shut down?<\/li>\n<li>How have entrepreneurs been coping?<\/li>\n<li>What early signals could presage the IPO market\u2019s revival?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>The October CPI report could help revive the IPO market \u2014 especially if inflation continues to come in below investor expectations for the rest of 2023.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Is Inflation Tamed?<\/h2>\n<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported October inflation was unchanged from the month before, prompting the \u201clikely ending [of] the Federal Reserve\u2019s historic interest-rate increases,\u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> noted.<\/p>\n<p>October\u2019s inflation results were relatively modest. Overall consumer prices rose at the same rate they did in September \u2014 3.2% compared to the same months in 2022 \u2014 and they were abetted by declining gasoline prices.<\/p>\n<p>Excluding volatile food and energy prices, October 2023 core inflation rose 0.2 percentage points compared to September \u2014 a 4% increase from October 2022, the <em>Journal<\/em> wrote.<\/p>\n<p>This outcome was more sanguine than expected. Private-sector forecasters and some Fed officials expected higher core inflation. \u201cThe progress is probably going to come in lumps and be bumpy, but we\u2019re making progress,\u201d Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference earlier this month.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed is aiming for 2% inflation according to a separate measure from the Commerce Department. Powell said reaching that goal \u201cmay actually take a longer time,\u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> noted.<\/p>\n<p>Two economists were optimistic about inflation coming under control. \u201cWe may have brought down inflation as fast as it has ever come down, and we did that without starting a recession,\u201d Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told the <em>Journal<\/em> in an interview last week.<\/p>\n<p>\u201dThe sources of inflation are disappearing quickly,\u201d Luke Tilley, Wilmington Trust\u2019s chief economist, told the <em>Journal <\/em>on Tuesday. \u201cA whole bunch of categories are moving in the direction that we need them to.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Why The IPO Market Shut Down<\/h2>\n<p>What do inflation trends have to do with IPO opportunities? The IPO market shut down because after more than a decade of near-zero interest rates, in November 2021 rumors surfaced of Jerome Powell\u2019s likely reappointment as Fed chair, reported the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/12\/15\/business\/economy\/inflation-fed-fomc-meeting-december-2021.html\">New York Times<\/em><fbs-ticker data-name=\"NYT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/new-york-times\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  NYT<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>.<\/p>\n<p>That appointment would come with a mission to raise interest rates until inflation \u2014 until then thought to be a result of temporary factors related to Covid-19 \u2014 dropped below 2%.<\/p>\n<p>Fears of rising interest rates sent tech stocks tumbling. Plunging stock prices sent a message to investors: When established technology companies lose value, it\u2019s foolish to increase the supply of technology shares by taking private tech companies public.<\/p>\n<p>After a boom in 2021, the IPO market nearly shut down \u2013 a trend that has continued for the last three years. With the exit door slammed shut, venture investors told most of their portfolio companies not to expect more cash.<\/p>\n<p>The numbers support this conclusion. Excluding special-purpose acquisition companies, in 2020 and 2021, more than 600 companies went public. Since then, not so much. \u201cIn the nearly two years since, there have been fewer than 200,\u201d the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/finance\/stocks\/ipo-market-arm-instacart-klaviyo-birkenstock-3e3b40a0?mod=hp_lista_pos1\">Wall Street Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Venture capital investments have plunged since 2021. After nearly doubling to $345 billion in that year, such investment in the U.S. fell 57% in 2022 to $241 billion, according to <em>Statista<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>That downward trend persisted into 2023. Venture investments in the second quarter of 2023 fell 34% to $29.4 billion from the first quarter\u2019s $44.4 billion, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.ey.com\/en_us\/growth\/venture-capital\/q2-2023-venture-capital-investment-trends\">E&amp;Y<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How Entrepreneurs Have Been Coping<\/h2>\n<p>The shutdown of the IPO market caused a virtual freeze in pre-IPO funding rounds. Moreover, the contraction of software company valuations cut off their flow of venture capital.<\/p>\n<p>Startups scrambled to avoid a down round \u2014 raising new capital at a lower valuation than the previous round, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/07\/07\/startups-reckoning-with-an-end-to-cheap-capital-face-hard-decisions-.html\">CNBC<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Since the 2022 IPO market shut down, investors shifted focus from rapid growth alone to higher margins, more sales efficiency, and higher revenues from existing customers, <em>CNBC<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>This change in investor focus from growth to productivity has significant implications for business leaders. Now CEOs must improve operations by reducing the amount of time it takes sales reps to become productive and increasing the number of salespeople who contribute to meeting a company\u2019s goal for annualized recurring revenue.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps most importantly, leaders must increase their revenue growth from existing customers \u2013 known as dollar-based net retention. In a productivity-obsessed investment climate, this metric is growing more important since \u201cit takes 14 times more money to generate revenue from a new customer than from an existing client,\u201d <em>CNBC<\/em> wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Many startups have not been able to satisfy investors\u2019 more stringent performance expectations and have either raised capital at much lower valuations or shut down completely.<\/p>\n<p>While I cannot find detailed startup failure statistics by year, a report that tracks startup post-mortems suggests more have failed since 2021.<\/p>\n<p>How so? In 2021, 253 startups failed due to many reasons, including \u201ca faulty business model and poor product-market fit, running out of cash or a lack of passion and perseverance,\u201d according to CB Insights\u2019 startup post-mortem report. By August 2023, that report tracked 463 startup failure post-mortems.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Four Indicators Of A Reviving IPO Market<\/h2>\n<p>Here are four early indicators of a possible IPO market revival.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Gains In The Stock Prices Of Recent IPOs<\/h3>\n<p>Rising post-IPO stock prices could help revive the overall market. That would reverse the recent trend.<\/p>\n<p>This fall, three big tech companies went public: chip designer Arm Holdings, grocery-delivery company Instacart; and e-commerce firm, Klaviyo. As of November 13, all but Arm traded below their IPO prices.<\/p>\n<p>The disappointing performance &#8220;likely shut the [IPO market&#8217;s] door for the remainder of 2023,\u201d the<em> Journal<\/em> reported. \u2018<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Declining Interest Rates<\/h3>\n<p>If the Federal Reserve sees inflation dropping below its 2% target, interest rates could drop and stocks could rise. Expectations of lower rates could send technology stocks soaring.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Steadily Rising Technology Stock Prices<\/h3>\n<p>Since late 2021, technology stocks have been whipsawed, the <em>Journal<\/em> noted. A steady rise in the tech-heavy NASDAQ<fbs-ticker data-name=\"NDAQ\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/nasdaq\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  NDAQ<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> index could create demand for more technology company shares.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">IPOs Of Fast-Growing Generative AI Companies<\/h3>\n<p>No doubt, business leaders would like to see that demand satisfied by a reopening of the IPO market. The most attractive candidates for IPOs would be soaring Generative AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic \u2013 both of which are enjoying rapid revenue growth.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Risks To This Rosy Scenario<\/h2>\n<p>This rosy scenario could be upended by many things. The most notable one is persistent high inflation due to the wage increases resulting from recent settlements of disputes in industries including automobiles and entertainment.<\/p>\n<p>This excludes higher wages for \u201cbaristas, national park bus drivers, hotel housekeepers, lawyers, book sellers, locomotive plant workers, sour cream producers and brewery workers,\u201d the <em>Washington Post<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Count me among those who hope inflation goes below 2% and stays there. Investors could benefit from a reopening of the IPO market \u2014 which should help propel the stock market and keep the economy from tilting into a recession.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/11\/14\/lower-inflation-and-federal-reserve-rate-cut-could-revive-the-ipo-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The October 2023 Consumer Price Index report showed inflation came in unchanged from the month before, according to the Wall Street Journal. Could the resulting drop in interest rates and soaring stock market presage a reopening of the initial public offering market? That would be great for startups. After all, many company founders dream of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":84489,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-84488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Lower Inflation And Federal Reserve Rate Cut Could Revive The IPO Market | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The October 2023 Consumer Price Index report showed inflation came in unchanged from the month before, according to the Wall Street Journal. 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