The mood is somewhat positive ahead of CPI data largely expected to behave and keep the Fed in its perceived no-more-hike box. <\/p>\n
Should things go as planned, bond yields will keep easing off, and keep a small fire lit under that end-year equity rally theory. <\/p>\n
Onto our call of the day<\/strong>, from Bank of America, which talks about where the majority of investors expect the 2024 \u201cplaybook\u201d for investing to go \u2014 and much of that has to do with a Federal Reserve backing off interest rates. <\/p>\n In its global fund manager survey for November, strategist Michael Hartnett and his team explain that investors have turned cautious on the macro picture.<\/p>\n So most expect a soft landing for the economy \u2014 interest rate hikes that have worked to slow the economy just enough, but not into a recession \u2014 lower rates, a weaker dollar and a continued bull market for large-cap tech stocks.<\/p>\n Read: <\/strong>What\u2019s driving Wall Street\u2019s gloomiest interest-rate forecast<\/p>\n A net 76% of those surveyed believe the Federal Reserve hiking cycle is over, and 61% expect lower bond yields, which as the below chart shows, is the most on record: <\/p>\n <\/p>\n And that\u2019s despite the second highest number of investors ever saying fiscal policy was too stimulative, the survey finds.<\/p>\n The survey also shows investors have trimmed their cash levels to a two-year low of 4.7% from 5.3%, and moved to the biggest bond overweight since March 2009. And as part of that view the Fed is done hiking, investors flipped to their first equity overweight since April 2022.<\/p>\n Now, if the economy goes against the general thinking here and a \u201chard landing\u201d or sharp slowdown kicks in, then a contrarian investor would want to be bullish on cash, short on U.S. growth stocks and Japan equities. they say. And in the case of \u201cno landing\u201d and higher interest rates, then long cash, dollar and commodities is the contrarian bet to make. <\/p>\n Hartnett and co. also laid out what they believe is the biggest contrarian play of 2024 \u2014 \u201clong leverage, short quality.\u201d <\/p>\n While he doesn\u2019t quite break this down, leverage can refer to companies that need to borrow money, so this would imply a bullish bet on that group. Real estate investment trusts, banks, and small cap stocks can be viewed as companies that need to borrow. But a bullish bet on those would mean no fear of an imminent credit event, that Hartnett has discussed in recent months.<\/p>\n As for short quality? Those contrarian investors would bet against companies with healthy balance sheets that aren\u2019t overborrowing or overleveraging. <\/p>\n Read:<\/strong> <\/strong>Here are the biggest clean-energy transition challenges and investment opportunities<\/p>\n And:<\/strong> The Dow industrials hit a death cross on Monday. That could be a bullish or bearish signal<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Stock futures YM00, NQ00, BX:TMUBMUSD02Y Consumer prices for October are coming at 8:30 a.m., and are expected to ease \u2014 up 0.1% on the month and 3.3% annually. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is set to hold steady \u2014 up 0.3% and 4.1%, respectively. <\/p>\n A bunch of Fed speakers are on the docket as well \u2014 Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 5:30 a.m. spoke about monetary policy in uncertain times, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will testify to a Senate panel at 10 a.m. on supervisory and regulatory activities and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at 12:45 p.m.<\/p>\n Home Depot Swiss-based miner and commodity trader Glencore TECK.A, Strip slubs, lewd photos and a boozy hotel: The toxic atmosphere at bank regulator FDIC.<\/p>\n How a\u00a0NFL\u00a0bettor just turned $500,000 into $6 million \u2014 one of the biggest parlay payouts ever<\/p>\n Jamie Dimon is selling his stock. So are these other Wall Street bankers (subscription required)<\/p>\n These were the top-searched stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:<\/p>\n Some (don\u2019t get too excited) good news for ultra-processed food fans.<\/p>\n Merry Swiftmas. Online stampede for Taylor Swift Christmas baubles.<\/p>\nThe markets<\/h2>\n
\n ES00,
\n
\n
\n
\n are unsurprisingly flat ahead of CPI data, with bond yields
\n BX:TMUBMUSD10Y<\/p>\n
\n also going nowhere. <\/p>\nThe buzz<\/h2>\n
\n HD,
\n
\n topped estimates for third-quarter earnings but in a cautious way, ahead of Target
\n TGT,
\n
\n TJX
\n TJX,
\n
\n and Walmart
\n WMT,
\n
\n results this week. One question? Is industry theft still a big problem?<\/p>\n
\n GLEN,
\n
\n will pay $6.93 billion for a 77% stake in the steelmaking coal business of Canada\u2019s Teck Resources
\n TECK,
\n
\n Best of the web<\/h2>\n
The chart<\/h2>\n
Top tickers<\/h2>\n
\n
\n \n TSLA,
\n \n Tesla<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n GME,
\n \n GameStop<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n NVDA,
\n \n Nvidia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n AMC,
\n \n AMC Entertainment<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n AAPL,
\n \n Apple<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n NIO,
\n \n Nio<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n GME,
\n \n GameStop<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n AMZN,
\n \n Amazon<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n PLTR,
\n \n Palantir<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n PLUG,
\n \n Plug Power<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n MSFT,
\n \n Microsoft<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n Random reads<\/h2>\n