{"id":80671,"date":"2023-11-04T13:46:28","date_gmt":"2023-11-04T17:46:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/investing\/is-the-israel-hamas-war-the-start-of-world-war-iii-its-alarmingly-hard-to-say\/"},"modified":"2023-11-04T13:46:32","modified_gmt":"2023-11-04T17:46:32","slug":"is-the-israel-hamas-war-the-start-of-world-war-iii-its-alarmingly-hard-to-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=80671","title":{"rendered":"Is the Israel-Hamas War the Start of World War III? It\u2019s Alarmingly Hard to Say."},"content":{"rendered":"
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About the author:\u00a0<\/em>Edward Price<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0is principal at Ergo, a global intelligence, consulting, and forecasting firm. A former British trade official, he also teaches at New York University\u2019s Center for Global Affairs.<\/em><\/p>\n

Is war coming?<\/p>\n

\n

I don\u2019t mean \u201cwar\u201d in the sense of what\u2019s going on in Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza. Anyone who had the stomach to watch the footage of the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack has seen the start of a war. I mean war<\/em>\u2014general war\u2014a war consumptive of everything and everyone. For want of a better phrase, the unspeakable: World War III. Are we living through the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand or the invasion of Poland in 1939? Or can we still change course?<\/p>\n

I have pondered conflict everywhere from Berlin\u2019s military archives to museums in Tokyo, from the war zone in Ukraine to buzzing markets in post-war Vietnam. I\u2019ve always asked myself the same question: Can the 20th century repeat in the 21st?\u00a0<\/p>\n

I am of two minds.<\/p>\n

As things stand, my head says no. The events of the recent past are not the onset of a third World War. Why? Well, the U.S. and China have not declared war against each other. Neither, indeed, have the U.S. and Russia. Nor Israel and Iran. This is the litmus test. Great-power conflicts require conflict between great powers. That isn\u2019t happening. Russia attacked a democracy. Hamas massacres innocents. But the mood music is still very much more local, more proxy, than global or direct.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are linked, as I argued recently. But they are not yet a Third World War.<\/p>\n

Just look at the line-up. Calmer minds in Tehran know entering this war could hurt Iran far more than Israel. U.S. carrier groups have made that point. Hezbollah appears to have backed down. A feint? Who knows? But neither is Russia attacking Poland or the Baltics. We have nukes too. Plus, China remains wary of the U.S. Pacific Fleet. In sum, the world can tolerate a struggle in Ukraine. It can tolerate Israel in Gaza for months. It can permit China\u2019s harassment of Taiwan. It can bear these things and essentially remain at peace.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On the other hand, my guts say yes.<\/p>\n

Just look at the exact same things. Madder minds in Tehran want Israel gone. Not defeated, gone. They cheer Hamas on, sending money and arms. Russia has refrained from striking Poland and the Baltics due not just NATO, but because Kyiv is putting up one hell of a fight. Should a U.S. president take America out of NATO in 2025, all bets are off. Meanwhile, there\u2019s China. China is wary of the U.S., yes. But President Xi Jinping must have Taiwan. His entire project demands it. So the world cannot tolerate an endless struggle in Ukraine, or Israel spending years in Gaza. And China cannot wait forever to take Taipei. Something must break. As Honest Abe said: a house divided against itself cannot stand. The house, in this case, is the whole world.<\/p>\n

All that remains is why. Why has the world, in less than a decade, become so very insecure?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Simple. The West won World War I. We won World War II. But no, not the Cold War, despite what you may think. The mess we made of this third clash was to imagine that 1990 was another 1890\u2014more security and the closing of a frontier\u2014and not another 1790, the opening of a revolution, the beginning of madness and of war. If the purpose of the Cold War was to destroy the Soviet Empire, we won. If the purpose of the Cold War was to guarantee a world at peace, we fumbled. More than fumbled. Far worse, we shared our know how and our tech with China\u2014Communist China\u2014thinking we could be friends.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He who would have peace, prepares for war. He who would have peace, does not place faith in commerce\u2014plastic toys and cheap garden furniture.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not all bad. We won\u2019t see a resurgence of Japanese or German empire-building. The Showa imperial dynasty gave way to Sony as Japan\u2019s global brand. Birkenstock replaced Blitzkrieg. But Russia and China are not on board with international liberalism. That is our ultimate failing. Not realizing that autocracy meant, and always means, war. That, in turn, ultimately explains the terrible feeling of vulnerability that so many outside these war zones feel. We know that we\u2019ve messed up. We know what it could mean.<\/p>\n

Whether the world sees another truly global conflict remains to be seen. But that\u2019s hardly the point. The point is that\u2014instead of a world secure\u2014it could.<\/p>\n

Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron\u2019s and MarketWatch newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors. Submit commentary proposals and other feedback to\u00a0ideas@barrons.com.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

About the author:\u00a0Edward Price\u00a0is principal at Ergo, a global intelligence, consulting, and forecasting firm. A former British trade official, he also teaches at New York University\u2019s Center for Global Affairs. Is war coming? I don\u2019t mean \u201cwar\u201d in the sense of what\u2019s going on in Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza. Anyone who had the stomach to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":80672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-80671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\nIs the Israel-Hamas War the Start of World War III? 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