{"id":79488,"date":"2023-11-01T16:20:01","date_gmt":"2023-11-01T20:20:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/2023-market-prediction-contest-october-31st-update\/"},"modified":"2023-11-01T16:20:06","modified_gmt":"2023-11-01T20:20:06","slug":"2023-market-prediction-contest-october-31st-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=79488","title":{"rendered":"2023 Market Prediction Contest October 31st Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
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During 2022, broad markets suffered their worst annual losses since the global financial crisis. Last December<\/strong>, we asked Seeking Alpha analysts for their market outlook for 2023, using the S&P 500 Index as the proxy.<\/p>\n

Supported by their qualitative arguments, we invited analysts to forecast where the S&P 500 would close on December 31, 2023. There’s some prize money at stake for the most accurate projections.<\/p>\n

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2023 Expectations and Performance So Far<\/h2>\n

Prior to the start of 2023, the consensus view was for modest losses in the S&P 500 index this year.<\/p>\n

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At the midway point (June 30, 2023), when we last provided an update, it appeared that analysts had entered the year much too pessimistic, as the S&P 500 had roared to a 15.9% first-half gain!<\/p>\n

The tide has turned recently, and market optimism has faded amid persistently rising yields (the 10-year UST has increased from ~3.8% to ~4.8% in the past 4 months<\/em>) and a new geopolitical conflict that most were not expecting. In addition, investors are assessing growth concerns in China.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 has fallen approximately 5.8% so far in the second half of 2023, erasing a chunk of the gains realized prior to July. The index stood at 4193.80 on October 31, 2023, representing now a 9.2% increase since the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n

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Closest Forecasts At The Current S&P 500 Level<\/h2>\n

The analysts with the closest end-of-year S&P 500 index estimates, as of October 31, 2023, are as follows:<\/p>\n

1) Zoltan Ban, year-end prediction of 4,200 (+6pts)<\/p>\n

2) Fountainhead, year-end prediction of 4,151 (-43pts)<\/p>\n

3) Christopher Robb, year-end prediction of 4,300 (+106pts)<\/p>\n

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Even a crystal ball may fog up trying to predict how the year will close for equity markets. There are a lot of potential factors at play.<\/p>\n

Once the dust settles, Seeking Alpha looks forward to providing a final tally, a couple months from now, of the 2023 market prediction contest. Prize money to for the 3 closest S&P 500 predictions once we reach the end of the year will be awarded as follows:<\/p>\n