{"id":77341,"date":"2023-10-27T03:46:27","date_gmt":"2023-10-27T07:46:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/the-feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-is-coming-heres-what-to-expect\/"},"modified":"2023-10-27T03:46:30","modified_gmt":"2023-10-27T07:46:30","slug":"the-feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-is-coming-heres-what-to-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341","title":{"rendered":"The Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect."},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n

The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that price growth continued to cool in September, a positive trend for Fed officials heading into the Nov. 1 interest-rate decision.<\/p>\n

The core personal-consumption expenditures price index\u2014a closely watched indicator by the Fed that excludes the more volatile food and energy cost\u2014is expected to show the pace of inflation in September fell 3.7% year over year, down from the 3.9% rate recorded in August, according to economists surveyed by FactSet. <\/p>\n

\n

Yet on a monthly basis, core PCE growth is expected to pick up the pace. Economists predict the core PCE index climbed 0.3% in September, up from August\u2019s 0.1% rate.<\/p>\n

Last month\u2019s headline PCE index measure\u2014which includes food and energy prices that the core measure strips out\u2014is also forecast to decelerate to a 3.4% pace year over year, compared with the 3.5% rate recorded in August, according to FactSet. The consensus is that month-over month, inflation rose 0.3% in September, from 0.4% pace in August.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

But while the expectation is that Friday\u2019s PCE data will show continued progress on taming inflation, there is always the possibility of a surprise. Much of September\u2019s other economic data, including the Consumer Price Index, came in hotter than expected. The headline CPI showed consumer prices in September climbed 3.7% year over year, coming in 0.1 percentage point above consensus expectations.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Thursday\u2019s first estimate of third-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) also revealed remarkable strength. The initial estimate showed the U.S. economy grew 4.9% from July to September. But while the economy seemed to accelerate over the summer, much of that strength is expected to be short-lived.<\/p>\n

The Bureau of Economic Analysis also revealed in Thursday\u2019s GDP\u00a0<\/strong>report that core PCE index rose 2.4% in the third quarter, slowing from the 3.7% rate recorded in the second quarter. That\u2019s the slowest quarterly\u00a0<\/strong>pace of core inflation since the fourth quarter of 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe inflation genie is not yet back in the bottle,\u201d as Mike Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede put it. \u201cIt\u2019s one piece of a mosaic of data that suggests inflation still has some ways to go before normalizing near acceptable longer-term levels.\u201d<\/p>\n

Friday\u2019s PCE report is likely to indicate more of the same. Yet despite inflation remaining above the Fed\u2019s 2% target, many economists expect Fed officials to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks interest-rate futures, on Thursday showed the odds of the Fed holding rates steady at next week\u2019s policy meeting at 98.6%.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect the Fed to recognize recent strength in economic activity but, with tightening financial conditions, to soften guidance about the need for additional tightening,\u201d Chief Economist Ellen Zentner and her team at Morgan Stanley wrote Thursday. The team expects the current rate range will be the peak of this tightening cycle.<\/p>\n

Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s speech at the Economic Club of New York last week set the tone, Zentner wrote. She noted that the head of the central bank acknowledged the risks to the outlook, but showed little appetite for more rate hikes in the near-term.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the uncertainties and risks, and how far we have come, the committee is proceeding carefully,\u201d Powell said last week. \u201cWe will make decisions about the extent of additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based on the totality of the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite the central bank\u2019s aggressive monetary tightening, the recent spate of stronger economic data reflects that the U.S. economy remains very solid in the second half of 2023, PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher wrote Thursday.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe central bank is likely content to leave interest rates where they are,\u201d Faucher noted.\u00a0\u201cBut a pickup in inflation from higher energy prices or the strong labor market could lead to further rate hikes and an additional headwind to growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the September PCE price index on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.<\/p>\n

Write to Megan Leonhardt at megan.leonhardt@barrons.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that price growth continued to cool in September, a positive trend for Fed officials heading into the Nov. 1 interest-rate decision. The core personal-consumption expenditures price index\u2014a closely watched indicator by the Fed that excludes the more volatile food and energy cost\u2014is expected to show […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":77342,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-77341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect. | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that price growth continued to cool in September, a positive trend for Fed officials\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect. | iFintechWorld\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that price growth continued to cool in September, a positive trend for Fed officials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"iFintechWorld\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-10-27T07:46:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-10-27T07:46:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/1698392788_social.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"News Room\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"News Room\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"News Room\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61\"},\"headline\":\"The Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect.\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-10-27T07:46:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-10-27T07:46:30+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341\"},\"wordCount\":700,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Featured\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341\",\"name\":\"The Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect. | iFintechWorld\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-10-27T07:46:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-10-27T07:46:30+00:00\",\"description\":\"The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that price growth continued to cool in September, a positive trend for Fed officials\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect.\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\",\"name\":\"Repay Down\",\"description\":\"Latest Personal Finance News, Tips and Updates\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Repay Down\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png\",\"width\":558,\"height\":90,\"caption\":\"Repay Down\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61\",\"name\":\"News Room\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png\",\"caption\":\"News Room\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect. | iFintechWorld","description":"The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that price growth continued to cool in September, a positive trend for Fed officials","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect. | iFintechWorld","og_description":"The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that price growth continued to cool in September, a positive trend for Fed officials","og_url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341","og_site_name":"iFintechWorld","article_published_time":"2023-10-27T07:46:27+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-10-27T07:46:30+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1280,"height":640,"url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/1698392788_social.jpeg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"News Room","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"News Room","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341"},"author":{"name":"News Room","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61"},"headline":"The Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect.","datePublished":"2023-10-27T07:46:27+00:00","dateModified":"2023-10-27T07:46:30+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341"},"wordCount":700,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["Featured"],"articleSection":["Markets"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341","name":"The Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect. | iFintechWorld","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-10-27T07:46:27+00:00","dateModified":"2023-10-27T07:46:30+00:00","description":"The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that price growth continued to cool in September, a positive trend for Fed officials","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=77341#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Fed\u2019s Preferred Inflation Gauge Is Coming. Here\u2019s What to Expect."}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/","name":"Repay Down","description":"Latest Personal Finance News, Tips and Updates","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization","name":"Repay Down","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png","width":558,"height":90,"caption":"Repay Down"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61","name":"News Room","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png","caption":"News Room"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com"],"url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?author=1"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=77341"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77341\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77343,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77341\/revisions\/77343"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/77342"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=77341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=77341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=77341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}