{"id":7600,"date":"2023-05-12T01:01:32","date_gmt":"2023-05-12T05:01:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/death-cross-in-10-year-yield-highlights-the-end-of-the-longest-bullish-stretch-in-at-least-30-years\/"},"modified":"2023-05-12T01:01:33","modified_gmt":"2023-05-12T05:01:33","slug":"death-cross-in-10-year-yield-highlights-the-end-of-the-longest-bullish-stretch-in-at-least-30-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=7600","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Death cross\u2019 in 10-year yield highlights the end of the longest bullish stretch in at least 30 years"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"js-article__body\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0002043950\" role=\"document\">\n<p>A bearish \u201cdeath cross\u201d has appeared in the daily chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, to reflect the end of the longest bullish stretch by one technical metric in more than 30 years.<\/p>\n<p>And there\u2019s reason to believe the yield will fall even further this year before the secular uptrend reasserts itself.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<p>The 10-year yield<br \/>\n        TMUBMUSD10Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">3.371%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       fell by 0.042 percentage points Thursday to 3.397%, on the back of tamer-than-expected wholesale inflation data earlier in the session, and in-line consumer inflation data the previous sessions.<\/p>\n<p>The yield decline comes as the 50-day moving average (DMA), which many on Wall Street use to track the short-term trend, crossed below the 200-DMA, which many view as a dividing line between longer- and short-term trends. Many chart watchers label that development as a \u201cdeath cross,\u201d to mark the spot a shorter-term pullback turns into a longer-term downtrend.<\/p>\n<p>The death cross, which was confirmed at Wednesday\u2019s close, snapped a 383-session stretch in which the 50-DMA was above the 200-DMA, which is the longest stretch seen since data from FactSet is available, going back to January 1994.<\/p>\n<p>The yield has declined from a 14-year peak of 4.243% on Oct. 24, but was still more than double the yield of 1.157% on Oct. 29, 2021, when the 383-session streak started.<\/p>\n<p>Death crosses, and the opposite \u201cgolden\u201d crosses, aren\u2019t meant to be good market timing signals, since they are well telegraphed, but they can provide some historical perspective on the length and breadth of a recent trend.<\/p>\n<p>And while the 10-year yield\u2019s death cross can provide a bearish backdrop, warning of further yield declines, the predictive prowess of previous death crosses has been spotty at best.<\/p>\n<p>There have now been eight death crosses in the past 10 years. Of the past seven, three led to meaningful declines in yields, and lasted an average of 325 sessions before being canceled by a golden cross. The other four lasted an average of just 39 sessions, and three of them actually preceded increases in yields.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>Technician Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies LLC, said while the latest death cross doesn\u2019t necessarily portend a decisive downtrend, it reflects what she believes is a \u201ccyclical down move\u201d in yields that could characterize the trend for most of this year, before the previous new, longer-term uptrend reasserts itself.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe assumption would be that the secular uptrend resumes,\u201d eventually, Stockton said.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>In the meantime, given some negative readings in some medium-term momentum indicators, Stockton believes the yield looks likely to break below technical support at the 3.25% level.<\/p>\n<p>That leaves scope for the yield to fall to around 3.00%. If it does, she believes that would likely mark a \u201crealistic low.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/death-cross-in-10-year-yield-highlights-the-end-of-the-longest-bullish-stretch-in-at-least-30-years-f5ceab1c?mod=markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A bearish \u201cdeath cross\u201d has appeared in the daily chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, to reflect the end of the longest bullish stretch by one technical metric in more than 30 years. And there\u2019s reason to believe the yield will fall even further this year before the secular uptrend reasserts itself. The 10-year yield [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7601,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-7600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u2018Death cross\u2019 in 10-year yield highlights the end of the longest bullish stretch in at least 30 years | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A bearish \u201cdeath cross\u201d has appeared in the daily chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, to reflect the end of the longest bullish stretch by one technical\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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