{"id":75866,"date":"2023-10-23T12:22:58","date_gmt":"2023-10-23T16:22:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/markets-are-confident-the-feds-done-on-rates-why-thats-dangerous\/"},"modified":"2023-10-23T12:23:01","modified_gmt":"2023-10-23T16:23:01","slug":"markets-are-confident-the-feds-done-on-rates-why-thats-dangerous","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=75866","title":{"rendered":"Markets Are Confident the Fed\u2019s Done on Rates. Why That\u2019s Dangerous."},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"js-article__body\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"SB52551882000631423375304590289061063424280\">\n<p>There\u2019s not much that could dissuade markets from the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold on Nov. 1.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not for a lack of news in the week and a half between now and then. PCE inflation data, the Fed\u2019s preferred measure, are out on Friday, a day after the latest gross domestic product figures. Four of the so-called seven Magnificent Seven technology firms\u2014the cohort that\u2019s mainly responsible for stock gains this year\u2014report this week. And the government dysfunction of the House speaker contest could push up bond yields more\u2014the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since 2007 early Monday.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<p>Any one of those things might move the needle for the Fed in a normal month. But according to the<br \/>\n        CME<br \/>\n       FedWatch tool, there\u2019s a 98% chance of a second-consecutive pause\u2014up from a 73% chance of a pause a month ago.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s easy to think the most aggressive rate-hike campaign in a generation is over. That\u2019s pretty much what the market says\u2014CME has roughly 60% odds that rates remain unchanged through March of next year.<\/p>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sealed expectations by saying last week the central bank wouldn\u2019t need to raise overnight rates further to continue to get the benefit of higher, longer-term rates from bond yields. <\/p>\n<p>But Powell also made the point that the struggle to get inflation back down isn\u2019t over yet. Inflation is still too high, and it\u2019s not clear how much of the past tightening has yet to fully be felt. Add to that the Hamas-Israel conflict in the Middle East, with the potential to spark an energy crisis and send inflation sharply higher, and the risks are even greater.<\/p>\n<p>A tight consensus about the Fed outlook can be a dangerous thing. Investors should still be ready for surprises.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2014Brian Swint<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>*** Join Barron\u2019s senior managing editor Lauren R. Rublin and deputy editor Ben Levisohn today at noon when they discuss the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks. Sign up here.<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>Tech Earnings This Week: Microsoft, Alphabet,<br \/>\n        Meta<span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       and Amazon<\/h2>\n<p>Four of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks report earnings this week:<br \/>\n        Microsoft<br \/>\n       and<br \/>\n        Alphabet<br \/>\n       on Tuesday,<br \/>\n        Meta Platforms<br \/>\n       on Wednesday, and<br \/>\n        Amazon<br \/>\n       on Thursday. Analysts expect<br \/>\n        Meta<br \/>\n       and Amazon to lift earnings growth amid overall expectations that third-quarter profit from S&amp;P 500 companies slipped 0.4%. <\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      The S&amp;P 500 <strong>has risen 11% this year<\/strong> on a total-return basis through Friday\u2019s close. Without the seven tech companies\u2014the four reporting this week plus<br \/>\n        Apple<span>,<\/span><\/p>\n<p>        Nvidia<span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       and<br \/>\n        Tesla<br \/>\n      \u2014that return would be 0.6%, according to S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      The seven stocks <strong>accounted for 17% of S&amp;P 500 per-share earnings<\/strong> in 2022, and Goldman Sachs analysts see that share growing to 24% by 2025. The stocks are 30% of the S&amp;P 500\u2019s market value, up from 22% in 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Google parent Alphabet faces a bigger antitrust battle with the government, but analysts expect <strong>decent search-driven ad revenue<\/strong> and a better showing from YouTube. Some analysts expect Meta\u2019s ad sales to recover. Microsoft has closed its deal to buy videogame maker Activision Blizzard.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Analysts are anticipating Amazon\u2019s <strong>forecasts on holiday spending<\/strong>, updates on its cloud business, and comments on the FTC\u2019s lawsuit, which accused Amazon of exploiting its monopoly power while raising prices and making service worse. Analysts expect minimal financial impact on the e-commerce company.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Chip maker Nvidia, reporting on Nov. 21, is expected to be the largest contributor to third-quarter earnings growth for the entire S&amp;P 500, FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters said. Without Nvidia the S&amp;P 500\u2019s blended earnings would decline to -1.8% from -0.4%, he said.<\/p>\n<p><em><\/em>\u2014<em><\/em><em>Janet H. Cho<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>\n        Chevron<br \/>\n       to Buy<br \/>\n        Hess<br \/>\n       for $53 Billion in Stock<\/h2>\n<p>Chevron said Monday it has agreed to buy fellow oil company Hess in an all-stock deal valued at $53 billion.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      Chevron said Hess shareholders would receive 1.025 Chevron shares in exchange for each of their own shares. Hess <strong>stock rose<\/strong> early Monday, while shares in Chevron pointed lower.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Chevron said that alongside the deal it expects to recommend an 8% increase to its first-quarter dividend per share to $1.63. It also intends to increase share repurchases by $2.5 billion to the top end of its guidance range of $20 billion a year, if oil <strong>prices remain strong<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Earlier this month, Exxon Mobil confirmed a deal to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for $64.5 billion, including debt, in an <strong>all-stock transaction<\/strong>. Hess has projects in the U.S. and overseas, including a 30% stake in a consortium focused on offshore projects in Guyana, where it works with Exxon Mobil.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> The acquisition is another oil megadeal and the latest sign of consolidation in an oil-and-gas industry. Companies are flush with cash and oil prices are elevated\u2014there could be more deals to come.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Adam Clark<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>General Motors, Ford Earnings Will Include Updates on UAW Strike<\/h2>\n<p>When<br \/>\n        General Motors<br \/>\n       reports earnings Tuesday, and<br \/>\n        Ford Motor<br \/>\n       reports on Thursday, investors will be eager for updates on the United Auto Workers\u2019 strike that has been going since Sept. 15. UAW leaders didn\u2019t expand the strike last week, which is also targeting Chrysler-parent<br \/>\n        Stellantis<span>.<\/span>\n      <\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      About 33,000 UAW-represented workers out of <strong>146,000 are on strike<\/strong>, and auto makers have laid off thousands more, saying the strikes have snarled production. Deutsche Bank estimates the strike has prevented production of about 145,000 vehicles, The Wall Street Journal reported.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Deutsche Bank estimates the strike has cost GM and Ford around <strong>$766 million each in operating profit<\/strong>, and cut Stellantis\u2019 bottom line by around $384 million. Stellantis is a more global company with more business outside the U.S. than the other two. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      General Motors\u2019 latest offer includes <strong>wage increases of about 25%<\/strong>, including inflation protection, over four years, and improvements in retirement benefits, workers\u2019 progression to higher pay grades, profit-sharing, and time off. But there\u2019s no mention if workers at EV battery plants are included in the new contract. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      UAW President Shawn Fain said all three auto makers are offering wage increases of about 23% over the life of their contracts, but added <strong>they all had more to give<\/strong>. He said the union is aiming for \u201cabsolutely every dollar we can.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> In other labor action, the unions representing Hollywood actors, who marked their 100th day on strike on Saturday, said they would resume negotiations with studio and streaming company executives on Tuesday. They are seeking higher wages, benefits, and protections against artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n<p><em><\/em>\u2014<em>Al Root and Janet H. Cho<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>House Lawmakers Brace for Third Round of Speaker Candidates<\/h2>\n<p>House Republicans return today to consider nine candidates for the vacant speaker\u2019s office as chaos on Capitol Hill stretched into a third week. Several GOP lawmakers told the Sunday morning talk shows that the divisiveness about filling the speaker role was an embarrassment.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      Former Speaker California Republican Kevin McCarthy is backing the Majority Whip, Rep. Tom Emmer (R., Minn.). \u201cWe need to get him elected this week and move on,\u201d McCarthy told NBC News\u2019 <em>Meet the Press<\/em>. It <strong>wasn\u2019t clear how much support<\/strong> any one candidate had.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Other <strong>candidates include<\/strong> Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Rep. Jack Bergman of Michigan, Rep. Austin Scott of Georgia, Rep Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania, Rep. Gary Palmer of Alabama, and Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      President Joe Biden delivered to Congress a request for $105 billion in military aid for Israel and Ukraine as lawmakers are divided. The proposal, which the House is <strong>unlikely to take up until it elects a speaker<\/strong>, includes funds for border security.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Ohio Republican Rep. Mike Turner told CNN\u2019s <em>State of the Union<\/em> that it will be hard for any speaker candidate to <strong>get 217 votes<\/strong>. And Texas Republican Rep. Michael McCaul told ABC News\u2019 <em>This Week<\/em> that working with Democrats had been discussed, adding he doesn\u2019t know how it plays out.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> House Republicans plan a candidate forum for this evening and plan to start the election process on Tuesday with a party vote to name a nominee.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Liz Moyer<\/em><em><\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<h2>Economic Data This Week: GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures<\/h2>\n<p>Economic data this week include a reading on third-quarter gross domestic product and Friday\u2019s report on the personal consumption expenditures index for September, a key inflation reading the Federal Reserve uses when it deliberates its next policy steps. A WSJ survey showed recession expectations are lower.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      A recent economist poll by The Wall Street Journal said optimism that a recession can be avoided has grown since July, fueled by a continued cooling in inflation, a <strong>strong labor market<\/strong>, and better-than-expected economic growth.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      On Thursday, the preliminary reading on third-quarter GDP is expected to show a <strong>rise of 3.7%<\/strong> from the second quarter and 2.4% from the same time last year. The increase would outpace the second-quarter GDP gain from the first quarter.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      On Friday, the PCE for September is <strong>expected to be up 3.4%<\/strong> for the year and 0.3% for the month, according to analysts tracked by FactSet. The Core PCE, which excludes food and fuel prices, is expected to rise 3.7% for the year, slower than August\u2019s pace.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      The federal government\u2019s 2023 budget deficit was $1.7 trillion up, or 23%, from one year ago as <strong>revenue and spending both fell<\/strong>. Revenue was down 9%, the Treasury Department said, and spending dropped 2% in the fiscal year that ended in September.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> The 2023 fiscal deficit is about 6.3% of GDP and was the third highest behind 2020 and 2021. President Joe Biden has proposed tax increases some Republicans and Democrats oppose, and Republicans want spending cuts the White House won\u2019t accept.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014<em>Liz Moyer<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n              \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n        media-object\n        type-InsetMediaIllustration\n          inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n        article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n          article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<p>        <!-- eventually when we know what this card will be we can change it and leave this one --><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<h2>MarketWatch Wants to Hear From you.<\/h2>\n<p><em>The rising yields on U.S. government debt, which sent the 10-year Treasury rate near 5% last week, a level not seen in 16 years, has posed a challenging environment for stocks. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>So for investors, what comes next?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A MarketWatch correspondent will answer this question soon. Meanwhile, send any questions you would like answered to thebarronsdaily@barrons.com<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h4>***<\/h4>\n<p><em>\u2014Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O\u2019Donnell, Callum Keown<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/articles\/what-to-know-today-d93c3973?mod=markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s not much that could dissuade markets from the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold on Nov. 1. That\u2019s not for a lack of news in the week and a half between now and then. PCE inflation data, the Fed\u2019s preferred measure, are out on Friday, a day after the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":75867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-75866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Markets Are Confident the Fed\u2019s Done on Rates. Why That\u2019s Dangerous. | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There\u2019s not much that could dissuade markets from the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold on Nov. 1. 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