{"id":73745,"date":"2023-10-17T18:58:12","date_gmt":"2023-10-17T22:58:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/bears-are-back-in-town-pushing-10-year-treasury-yield-closer-to-5-after-u-s-data\/"},"modified":"2023-10-17T18:58:14","modified_gmt":"2023-10-17T22:58:14","slug":"bears-are-back-in-town-pushing-10-year-treasury-yield-closer-to-5-after-u-s-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=73745","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Bears are back in town,\u2019 pushing 10-year Treasury yield closer to 5% after U.S. data"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"js-article__body\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0002624323\" role=\"document\">\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetPullQuote\n            inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetPullQuote\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<p>          <!-- eventually when we know what this card will be we can change it and leave this one --><\/p>\n<div class=\"wsj-article-pullquote article__inset__pullquote \">\n<p class=\"pullquote-content article__inset__pullquote__quote\">\n        <span class=\"l-qt article__inset__pullquote__mark--left\">\u201c<\/span>\u2018While geopolitical concerns haven\u2019t faded this week, the Treasury market appears content to revert to trading the no-landing narrative for the time being.\u2019<span class=\"r-qt article__inset__pullquote__mark--right\">\u201d<\/span>\n      <\/p>\n<p>        <small><br \/>\n          <span class=\"inset-author article__inset__pullquote__author\">\u2014 BMO Capital Markets strategists Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery <\/span><br \/>\n        <\/small><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> Growing confidence that the U.S. economy can avoid a much-talked-about recession translated into another selloff of government debt on Tuesday that pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield toward 5%.<\/p>\n<p>The 10-year yield<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD10Y<span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       which impacts a range of consumer and corporate borrowing, jumped 13.7 basis points to 4.846%, its highest 3 p.m. Eastern time level since July 25, 2007. The last time the 10-year yield ended the New York session above 5% was on July 19, 2007, when it reached 5.028%. Also on Tuesday, the 2-year yield<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD02Y<br \/>\n       ended at its highest level in 17 years.<\/p>\n<p>The absence of a dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions had traders and investors focused instead on Tuesday\u2019s stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales for September \u2014 yet another sign of the economy\u2019s unexpected resilience. The 10-year yield began to cross 4.72% on Monday on trading volumes that were only 60% of the two-week average, and there were a lack of reasons to go bullish on the underlying security, according to BMO Capital Markets strategists Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery. On Tuesday, as the selloff in Treasurys took off again, Lyngen and Jeffery released a note titled \u201cBears are Back in Town.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTechnically, we are still in a bit of an air pocket on the 10-year rate,\u201d said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy for TD Securities in New York. He described the \u201cair pocket\u201d as being between 4.5% and 5.3%, the latter of which was the level that prevailed prior to the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis. <\/p>\n<p>The bar to getting to 5% on the 10-year benchmark rate in the next couple of weeks is low, given the lack of resistance that exists between that mark and the rate\u2019s current level, Goldberg said via phone. Resistance refers to levels above where the 10-year rate currently is which could block further upside moves.<\/p>\n<p>Though investors\u2019 conviction behind trading was fairly low, \u201cthe strength of the data is overwhelming the market at moment and is the key driver,\u201d Goldberg said on Tuesday. \u201cThe market is currently downplaying geopolitical considerations, which are a powder keg, because there\u2019s been no escalation so far. With President Biden\u2019s visit to the region, I suspect there will be a few days of calm. But if the geopolitical picture escalates, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see yields move sharply lower in flight-to-safety moves.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Read: <\/strong>Biden will travel to Israel Wednesday amid rising concern conflict will spread<\/p>\n<p>Rates on everything from the 3-month Treasury bill<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD03M<br \/>\n       to the 30-year bond<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD30Y<br \/>\n       were all higher as of late Tuesday, led by 15-basis-point jumps each in 3-<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD03Y<span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       5-<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD05Y<br \/>\n       and 7-year yields<br \/>\n        BX:TMUBMUSD07Y<span>.<\/span><br \/>\n       The 30-year yield ended at 4.95%, the highest close since Aug. 22, 2007. U.S. stocks<br \/>\n        DJIA<\/p>\n<p>        SPX<\/p>\n<p>        COMP<br \/>\n       closed mostly lower as investors assessed the renewed rise in market-implied rates.<\/p>\n<p>Through the end of trading on Tuesday, the 10-year yield had jumped 156.1 basis points from its April 5 low of 3.285%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/bears-are-back-in-town-pushing-10-year-treasury-yield-closer-to-5-after-u-s-data-eadfc7b3?mod=markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\u2018While geopolitical concerns haven\u2019t faded this week, the Treasury market appears content to revert to trading the no-landing narrative for the time being.\u2019\u201d \u2014 BMO Capital Markets strategists Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery Growing confidence that the U.S. economy can avoid a much-talked-about recession translated into another selloff of government debt on Tuesday that pushed the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":73746,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-73745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u2018Bears are back in town,\u2019 pushing 10-year Treasury yield closer to 5% after U.S. data | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201c\u2018While geopolitical concerns haven\u2019t faded this week, the Treasury market appears content to revert to trading the no-landing narrative for the time\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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