{"id":7260,"date":"2023-05-11T09:57:32","date_gmt":"2023-05-11T13:57:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/investing\/prices-cool-slightly-relief-for-fed-as-inflation-battle-is-working\/"},"modified":"2023-05-11T09:57:33","modified_gmt":"2023-05-11T13:57:33","slug":"prices-cool-slightly-relief-for-fed-as-inflation-battle-is-working","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=7260","title":{"rendered":"Prices Cool Slightly, Relief For Fed As Inflation Battle Is Working"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>CPI data for April showed a 4.9% price increase year-on-year, down from March\u2019s figure and the tenth inflation slowdown in a row<\/li>\n<li>Stocks were mostly up, Treasury yields declined and gold ended flat at the news<\/li>\n<li>The future is still uncertain regarding the Fed interest rate increase, but a potential pause in June just became more likely with the news<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As the Fed\u2019s battle against inflation rages on, all eyes have been on the key inflation data in recent months. The consumer prices index (CPI) report was released yesterday, confirming a tenth straight decline in inflation since the peak of June 2022.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s overall good news for the economy and the Fed, but there\u2019s still a long road ahead before we call victory over inflation. We\u2019ve got the details on the CPI report, what it means and whether more interest rate rises could happen.<\/p>\n<p><em>Inflation doesn\u2019t need to be the enemy of your portfolio. Q.ai\u2019s <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/inflation-kit?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Inflation Protection Kit<\/em><em> harnesses both the power of AI and high inflation to help generate returns. How? The AI algorithm sifts through massive amounts of data to find the \u2018safe\u2019 assets and ETFs holding or increasing in value that week.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p><em>From there, the AI rebalances the holdings to help maximize returns and help you keep more money in your pocket. It\u2019s a low-risk Kit that\u2019s designed to save you time while doing the heavy lifting so you don\u2019t have to.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/refer.tryq.ai\/rPJtRhhOUyb\">Download Q.ai today<\/em><em> for access to AI-powered investment strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What\u2019s the latest inflation data?<\/h2>\n<p>The April CPI report reflected a 4.9% annual price increase, a small retreat from March\u2019s 5% figure &#8211; but a retreat nonetheless, which is good news given gas price jumps in the last few weeks had some worried inflation could have accelerated.<\/p>\n<p>On that note, headline prices did accelerate slightly due to the spike in gas &#8211; they climbed 0.4% compared to 0.1% in March &#8211; but given the gas price increase has already faded away, this isn\u2019t expected to be an issue by the time May\u2019s figures are released.<\/p>\n<p>Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy prices, came in at 5.5%. This again was slightly lower than March\u2019s 5.6% result. April\u2019s stats are the tenth decline in the annual inflation pace since it hit 9.1% back in the summer of 2022.<\/p>\n<p>But it wasn\u2019t all roses. There was an acceleration in used car prices, rising 4.4% after declining for nine months in a row. One economist <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DeanBaker13\/status\/1656281313345961991?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DeanBaker13\/status\/1656281313345961991?s=20\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/twitter.com\/DeanBaker13\/status\/1656281313345961991?s=20\" aria-label=\"pointed out\">pointed out<\/a> that core inflation would only have risen by 0.2% without used cars, but prices are anticipated to retreat again.<\/p>\n<p>What does this all mean? Well, it\u2019s largely good news for the Fed, which has raised interest rates to their highest since the 2008 financial crisis. But it\u2019s further proof this inflation battle isn\u2019t going away quickly.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Is there other economic data available?<\/h2>\n<p>The producer prices index (PPI) report figures released today showed an increase of 2.3% year-on-year, a 0.2% increase which comes in below the 0.3% predicted figure. It\u2019s the tenth consecutive decline and the lowest point since January 2021. The peak PPI rate was 11.7% in March 2022.<\/p>\n<p>The number of Americans filing for unemployment also rose, with jobless claims rising to 264,000 for the week ending May 6 &#8211; an increase of 22,000. It\u2019s a higher figure than analysts expected and the highest unemployment level since November 2021. Given unemployment rates have been so low, it\u2019s a sign the jobs market is cooling down and more good news for traders who want to see interest rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How did the market react?<\/h2>\n<p>Most of the market finished the trading day on a positive note. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.4%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.1% down. Tech companies, which rely more than other sectors on low-interest rates and inflation, made the most gains. The Nasdaq Composite was up 1% at the inflation news; Apple was up 1%, Microsoft saw a 1.7% gain and Amazon rose 3.3%.<\/p>\n<p>As for bonds, the ten-year Treasury yield retreated to 3.438% from 3.520% as bond prices rose. The two-year Treasury yield declined from 4.022% to 3.899%. The decline in yields led gold prices to rally 0.85% on Wednesday before losing the gain, now hovering at the $2,023 mark.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Could the Fed raise interest rates again?<\/h2>\n<p>New York Fed president, John Williams, had warned the Fed would take whatever action was needed earlier this week to fight sticky inflation &#8211; even if that meant raising interest rates even higher. \u201cWe haven&#8217;t said we are done raising rates,&#8221; were the official words.<\/p>\n<p>That being said, the picture is slowly looking more positive for the US economy. With inflation gradually easing and the red-hot jobs market slowly cooling off, it\u2019s further backing for the Fed to pause interest rates in June rather than raise them again. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 93.9% chance of interest rates pausing next month.<\/p>\n<p>As for rate cuts by the end of the year, the Fed and Wall Street have two different views. While Fed chair Jerome Powell has said it\u2019s highly unlikely there will be any interest rate cuts this year, futures traders raised their predictions to a 34.5% possibility of the Fed making a quarter-point interest rate cut in July.<\/p>\n<p>Is it wishful thinking from the futures market? Possibly. The problem is that the economy is still on shaky ground. First Republic\u2019s collapse a month after the March banking crisis set other regional bank stocks plunging, with PacWest in the firing line. The stock price jumped over 9% at the inflation data news, but we\u2019ve got a long road ahead until the banks can breathe a sigh of relief.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s also the not-so-small matter of the US Government\u2019s debt-ceiling crisis, which is rapidly coming down to the wire. The US could default on its debt by as soon as June 1st &#8211; before this was a truly unthinkable situation, but as the deadline draws closer with no negotiation results in sight, the markets are hurting.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">The bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>The report was the first time that inflation has fallen under 5% in two years. That\u2019s a silver lining against a background of mass layoffs, recession chatter and interest rate increases making borrowing more expensive.<\/p>\n<p>But the Fed will be the last place to call the battle won. There are too many variables, like the jobs market and banking sector\u2019s health, to contend with, but the inflation report has made a June rate hike pause that much more likely.<\/p>\n<p><em>Recession or no recession? We\u2019re not asking questions &#8211; we\u2019ve taken action. Q.a\u2019s new <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/recession-resistance-kit?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Recession Resistance Kit<\/em><em> is your new go-to investment tool to help ringfence your returns during difficult economic times.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The AI algorithm hunts down the top-performing recession-proof stocks and companies weekly, readjusting the holdings as needed to help your funds go as far as possible and help you build wealth. Harness the power of AI to assist in leveling up your recession investment strategy.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/refer.tryq.ai\/rPJtRhhOUyb\">Download Q.ai today<\/em><em> for access to AI-powered investment strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/qai\/2023\/05\/11\/april-inflation-report-recap-prices-cool-slightly-relief-for-fed-as-inflation-battle-is-working\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key takeaways CPI data for April showed a 4.9% price increase year-on-year, down from March\u2019s figure and the tenth inflation slowdown in a row Stocks were mostly up, Treasury yields declined and gold ended flat at the news The future is still uncertain regarding the Fed interest rate increase, but a potential pause in June [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7261,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-7260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Prices Cool Slightly, Relief For Fed As Inflation Battle Is Working | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Key takeaways CPI data for April showed a 4.9% price increase year-on-year, down from March\u2019s figure and the tenth inflation slowdown in a row Stocks were\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=7260\" \/>\n<meta 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