{"id":71046,"date":"2023-10-10T13:58:59","date_gmt":"2023-10-10T17:58:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/24-upside-microsoft-stock-could-hit-410-on-openai-investment-payoff\/"},"modified":"2023-10-10T13:59:02","modified_gmt":"2023-10-10T17:59:02","slug":"24-upside-microsoft-stock-could-hit-410-on-openai-investment-payoff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=71046","title":{"rendered":"24% Upside? Microsoft Stock Could Hit $410 On OpenAI Investment Payoff"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Microsoft stock could rise 24% in the next year, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/news\/article\/thanks-to-openai-microsoft-stock-may-be-worth-410-says-oppenheimer\">TipRanks<\/em><em>. <\/em>Here are three forces propelling that upside:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Microsoft dominates a highly profitable industry with an average net profit margin of 31%, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/my-ibisworld-com.ezproxy.babson.edu\/us\/en\/industry\/51121\/at-a-glance\">IBISWorld<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li>Microsoft\u2019s software industry dominance could enable its ChatGPT-powered Copilot service add $30 billion to the company\u2019s revenue.<\/li>\n<li>Microsoft\u2019s 49% stake in OpenAI could be worth $100 billion, according to <em>TipRanks<\/em>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>One negative: Microsoft is losing money now on its Copilot due to the very high cost of operating ChatGPT, according to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/tech\/ai\/ais-costly-buildup-could-make-early-products-a-hard-sell-bdd29b9f\">Wall Street Journal<\/em><em>. <\/em>Over time, a combination of price increases and greater operating efficiency could enable Microsoft to solve this problem.<\/p>\n<p>Given Microsoft\u2019s 35.7% net profit margin, investors should focus more on whether Microsoft can exceed growth expectations than with what I think will be short-term losses on its Copilot operations.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Microsoft\u2019s Profitable Industry<\/h2>\n<p>Microsoft is the largest software company in a huge, profitable industry. Specifically, in 2023 the software industry\u2019s 48,422 companies generated $482 billion in revenue \u2013 having grown at a 5.9% average rate since 2018 \u2014 and earned a net profit margin of 31%, according to <em>IBISWorld<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, the profit potential of the U.S. software industry is high \u2013 thanks to the strong pricing power and customer loyalty of the largest companies such as Microsoft \u2014 which has 19.2% market share (number two is IBM<fbs-ticker data-name=\"IBM\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/ibm\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  IBM<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> with 4.9%), according to <em>IBISWorld. <\/em><\/p>\n<p>Microsoft is poised to win significant revenue from Generative AI software \u2014 an industry growing at 31% a year. How so? The most significant Generative AI software companies are among the largest publicly traded technology companies. This stands in sharp contrast to the leaders in the dot-com era \u2013 startups that grew quickly to win market share from incumbents.<\/p>\n<p>In May 2023, analysts from investment firm NEA wrote, \u201cUnlike with the prior shifts, incumbents do not need to re-architect their entire products to adopt this new platform shift. In addition, this shift favors companies with bigger, proprietary data sets which can give an edge to more established companies,\u201d according to the <em>New York Times<\/em><fbs-ticker data-name=\"NYT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/new-york-times\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  NYT<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>.<\/p>\n<p>Unlike during the dot-com era, with LLMs Google and Microsoft had \u201chuge head starts\u201d in developing the technology and winning over consumers. While LLM startups such as OpenAI and Anthropic performed R&amp;D, they could only gain access to the capital required to train their models through \u201cFaustian \u2018partnerships\u2019 with tech giants,\u201d the <em>Times<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Despite Costs, How Copilot Could Add $30 Billion To Microsoft\u2019s Revenue<\/h2>\n<p>Microsoft has not reported Copilot\u2019s revenue. Earlier this year, I estimated Copilot could add $40 billion to its Microsoft\u2019s top line. After two more recent developments, I lowered my Copilot revenue estimate to $30 billion.<\/p>\n<p>What is Copilot? In April I wrote Microsoft 365 Copilot will enable customers to use natural language to create Word, PowerPoint, and Excel documents.<\/p>\n<p>Word users will \u201chighlight a paragraph and the AI can offer different options for a rewritten version of it.\u201d PowerPoint users will be able to create presentations based on text from a document and add in images Excel users will deploy Copilot to analyze sales data, determine trends and create charts, the <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>While I thought Copilot could add $40 billion To Microsoft\u2019s top line this April, I now estimate that number at $30 billion.<\/p>\n<p>I based the $40 billion on a March Credit Suisse report estimating ChatGPT could provide Microsoft an additional $40 billion in revenue over the next five or more years, according to <em>Business Insider<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>In July, a lower estimate of $14 billion emerged from Macquarie Equity Research \u2014 based on the assumption that 10% of Microsoft\u2019s 382 million customers would pay CoPilot\u2019s $30 a month fee.<\/p>\n<p>My current estimate is $30 billion. On Monday, the <em>Journal<\/em> reported Microsoft was losing \u201con average more than $20 a month per user\u201d with some customers costing the software giant as much as $80 a month due to the high cost of computing required to run the ChatGPT models. In order to reduce losses, Microsoft will raise its monthly fee to $60, the <em>Journal<\/em> wrote.<\/p>\n<p>If that happens, Microsoft\u2019s revenue from Copilot would reach $28 billion \u2014 which I rounded to $30 billion based on my assumption that 10% of users could be a bit low.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Microsoft\u2019s $100 Billion Stake In OpenAI<\/h2>\n<p>Microsoft\u2019s 49% stake in OpenAI could be worth $100 billion. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan made that case, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/news\/article\/thanks-to-openai-microsoft-stock-may-be-worth-410-says-oppenheimer\">TipRanks<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Horan applied OpenAI rival Anthropic\u2019s valuation of 250 times its $100 million in revenue for private fund raising round expected to raise $2 billion and value the AI startup at $25 billion.<\/p>\n<p>With OpenAI generating an estimated $1 billion in revenue, Horan applied Anthropic\u2019s 250 times revenue to value OpenAI at $250 billion \u2014 which he discounted slightly to estimate Microsoft\u2019s 49% would be worth $100 billion, <em>TipRanks <\/em>noted.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Will Microsoft Beat Expectations For Its September -Ending Quarter?<\/h2>\n<p>Microsoft will beat its modest growth guidance for its fiscal first quarter ending September 2023 \u2014 which fell somewhat short of expectations. However, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives is optimistic the software giant will do better when it reports in November.<\/p>\n<p>Due to some deceleration in Cloud service Azure\u2019s revenue, Microsoft guided for a range of first fiscal quarter revenue the midpoint of which, $54.3 billion \u2014 fell $640 million short of Wall Street expectations, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/news\/article\/a-massive-rally-ahead-daniel-ives-says-buy-tech-stocks-into-year-end-here-are-2-names-that-he-likes-right-now\">TipRanks<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Ives expects Microsoft to exceed guidance. \u201cWe believe while management has talked about a \u2018gradual ramp\u2019 for AI monetization in FY24 we believe so far the adoption curve is happening quicker than expected based on our recent checks. Our latest Azure checks also show a clear uptick in activity sequentially (AI driven) which gives us further confidence in Microsoft exceeding its 25%-26% Azure growth guidance in FY1Q,\u201d <em>TipRanks<\/em> wrote.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Where Will Microsoft Stock Go Next?<\/h2>\n<p>Microsoft stock will rise in the next year. Horan set a price target of $410 \u2014 implying a 24% increase from its price on October 10. Ives\u2019 price target of $400 would give investors a 21% return.<\/p>\n<p>Microsoft\u2019s competitive position is very strong and if its Generative AI investment is likely to drive expectations-beating growth for years in the future \u2014 especially as the company lowers the costs of operating ChatGPT.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/10\/10\/24-upside-microsoft-stock-could-hit-410-on-openai-investment-payoff\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Microsoft stock could rise 24% in the next year, according to TipRanks. Here are three forces propelling that upside: Microsoft dominates a highly profitable industry with an average net profit margin of 31%, according to IBISWorld. Microsoft\u2019s software industry dominance could enable its ChatGPT-powered Copilot service add $30 billion to the company\u2019s revenue. Microsoft\u2019s 49% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":71047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-71046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>24% Upside? Microsoft Stock Could Hit $410 On OpenAI Investment Payoff | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Microsoft stock could rise 24% in the next year, according to TipRanks. 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