Stocks are pointing to more gains, as yields go tumbling. Reopening after a holiday, bonds are rallying in part due to haven seeking after Hamas\u2019 deadly attacks on Israel. But also, two Fed officials talked down interest rate hikes on Monday \u2014 more speakers are ahead for Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Investors, especially oil traders, will obviously be monitoring the Middle East for any escalation, but Wall Street has a way of quickly and coldly getting back to business, as inflation data and the start of earnings season loom.<\/p>\n
Onto our our call of the day<\/strong> from Goldman Sachs, which says that an influential crowd of momentum traders is ready to buy the S&P 500 in a big way over the next month. <\/p>\n The below chart from the bank shows record-low exposure for U.S. equities among commodity trading advisors, or CTAs, who profit from bets on futures markets, and often follow trends.<\/p>\n According to a note from the bank, these CTAs are short some $90 billion of global equities, what it says is a zero percentile reading. In the U.S. alone, they are short $47 billion in equities \u2014 the largest U.S. short position for this group on record. <\/p>\n \u201cPer GS model, [the] CTAs are now buyers of SPX in every scenario over the next month,\u201d said the bank in an note from Monday.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n So those CTAs who have been busy selling the S&P 500, are ready to buy it back if Goldman is right. However, not everyone advises following the trend-loving CTAs, who some criticize for often swinging from one extreme to the other. <\/p>\n As the FT has pointed out, CTAs had a record 2022 performance thanks to surging inflation, but got burned earlier this year on bets that bank turmoil would force the Fed to stop hiking interest rates. <\/p>\n MarketWatch\u2019s Mark Hulbert notes that while October can be a historically volatile month, it can also mark the start of a seasonal bounce for stocks. Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader\u2019s Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter, refers to October as a \u201cbear-killer, bargain month and turnaround month,\u201d with solid, though yes, volatile trading at times.<\/p>\n This seasonality chart from Equity Clock that has been making the rounds may also support stock buyers:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Here\u2019s yet another buyer friendly chart \u2014 maybe \u2014 from Finom Group\u2019s chief market strategist, Seth Golden:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Also read: <\/strong>1970s-style stagflation may be at risk of repeating itself, Deutsche Bank warns<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Stock futures NQ00, BX:TMUBMUSD02Y Read:<\/strong> Treasury-market selloff has become the worst bond bear market of all time, according to BofA<\/p>\n For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto,\u00a0subscribe to\u00a0MarketDiem by Investor\u2019s Business Daily.<\/strong><\/p>\n Israel\u2019s war on Gaza entered its fourth day on Tuesday, with repeated bombings of Gaza City and 300,000 reservists called up. A senior Hamas official\u00a0rejected the idea that Iran had some role in the planning of the surprise attacks that have led to 1,600 deaths on both sides. <\/p>\n PepsiCo Auto workers walked off the job at three GM Country Garden, China\u2019s largest property developer, has warned it may not repay international debts. <\/p>\n Fed appearances are as follows: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will take part in a moderated conversation starting at 9:30 a.m., then Fed Gov. Christopher Waller at 1 p.m., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at 3 p.m. and San Francisco President Mary Daly at 6 p.m. Wholesale inventories are due at 10 a.m.<\/p>\n The IMF kept its limp global expansion forecasts mostly in place \u2014 3% for 2023 and slightly less growth of 2.9% next year.<\/p>\n How rising Treasury yields can make houses, cars and even student loans more expensive.<\/p>\n Zombie viruses are waking up after 50,000 years as planet warms.<\/p>\n Yellen may face questions at IMF meeting over U.S. dysfunction.<\/p>\n Nobel Prize\u2013winning economist Claudia Goldin\u2019s forgotten discovery<\/p>\n Gold climbed 1% on Monday as jittery investors seeking a haven for their money amid fresh Middle East violence pushed the commodity to its best day since August. This chart from Wisdom Tree takes a look at how gold has performed a year on from major geopolitical events and crisis:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe metal has a strong reputation as a geopolitical hedge, even though frequently\u00a0the price moves dissipate quickly. Occasionally the prices gains stick and are very meaningful. Take the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago, where gold prices surged more than 47% by 1 year after the start of the event,\u201d Nitesh Shah, head of commodities & macroeconomic research at WisdomTree, told clients in a note.<\/p>\n These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:<\/p>\n Levi\u2019s CEO says wash your jeans in the shower, and not often.<\/p>\n Unhappy with Seinfeld finale? A redo could be in the works.<\/p>\nThe markets<\/h2>\n
\n ES00,
\n
\n
\n are rising, with Treasury yields
\n BX:TMUBMUSD10Y<\/p>\n
\n diving. Gold
\n GC00,
\n
\n is up another $6, but the dollar
\n DXY
\n is down, along with oil
\n CL.1,
\n
\n is down modestly as investors turn to inventory reports due later in the week.<\/p>\nThe buzz<\/h2>\n
\n PEP,
\n
\n shares are up after the drinks maker lifted guidance. That\u2019s as investors wait for Friday\u2019s second-quarter kickoff from banking giants JPMorgan
\n JPM,
\n
\n BlackRock
\n BLK,
\n
\n Citigroup
\n C,
\n
\n and Wells Fargo
\n WFC,
\n
\n GM,
\n
\n facilities in Canada early Tuesday after their union failed to reach a deal.<\/p>\nBest of the web<\/h2>\n
Chart of the day<\/h2>\n
The tickers<\/h2>\n
\n
\n \n Ticker<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n Security name<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n TSLA,
\n \n Tesla<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n AMC,
\n \n AMC Entertainment<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n NVDA,
\n \n Nvidia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n GME,
\n \n GameStop<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n NIO,
\n \n NIO<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n AAPL,
\n \n Apple<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n PLTR,
\n \n Palantir Technologies<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n AMZN,
\n \n Amazon.com<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n HUBC,
\n \n Hub Cyber Security<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n \n TTOO,
\n \n T2 Biosystems<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n Random reads<\/h2>\n