{"id":70249,"date":"2023-10-08T14:31:40","date_gmt":"2023-10-08T18:31:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/investing\/the-bull-market-is-one-year-old-and-its-already-looking-post-peak\/"},"modified":"2023-10-08T14:31:43","modified_gmt":"2023-10-08T18:31:43","slug":"the-bull-market-is-one-year-old-and-its-already-looking-post-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=70249","title":{"rendered":"The bull market is one year old and it\u2019s already looking post-peak"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"js-article__body\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0002571209\" role=\"document\">\n<p>The bull market that began one year ago is one of the weakest in U.S. history.<\/p>\n<p>After comparing the current bull market with all others since 1900, you could even argue that the rally beginning in October 2022 was just a bear market rally. Such an argument would be particularly compelling in light of the U.S. stock market\u2019s recent losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average<br \/>\n        DJIA<br \/>\n       declining in eight of its last 10 sessions.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<p>The exact day on which the bull market began depends on which market average you use. Here I\u2019m focusing on the Dow, since it extends back further than any other broad market index. Based on it, the bear market of 2022 bottomed out on Sep. 30, 2022 at 28,725.51. At the one-year anniversary of the rally that began then \u2014 at the end of September 2023 \u2014 the Dow was 16.6% higher.<\/p>\n<p>Based on the bull market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research, no bull market since 1900 that lasted at least a year gained less than that over its first 12 months. The average first-year gain for all bull markets that lasted at least a year was 38.9% \u2014 more than double the current bull market\u2019s one-year return.<\/p>\n<p>My focus only on bull markets lasting at least a year was on the generous assumption that the bull market which began on year ago is still alive. But it\u2019s entirely possible that it came to an end on Aug. 1 of this year, at what so far is the Dow\u2019s closing high for the rally. The Dow closed that day 24% higher than at the beginning of October 2022, when the current bull market started.<\/p>\n<p>But even on the assumption the bull market ended then, we\u2019d still have to recognize that it\u2019s been relatively lackluster. The average bull market gain of the nine bull markets in the Ned Davis calendar that lasted less than a year is 55.7%, more than double the Dow\u2019s gain through its Aug. 1 peak.<\/p>\n<p>One possible comeback to my analysis might be that bull markets which are slow to gain momentum last longer, in contrast to those that are quick to ignite but then fizzle out. But there is only modest statistical support for this theory.<\/p>\n<p>Take the 50% of bull markets since 1900 with the smallest first-year returns: Those bull markets on average lasted a total of 2.3 years, versus two years for the 50% of bull markets with the biggest first-year gains. This difference is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is genuine. The same conclusion applies when correlating a bull market\u2019s first-year gain with its return from then until its end.<\/p>\n<p>The bottom line: No matter how you slice and dice the data, the U.S. stock market has been exceptionally weak. It\u2019s even unclear whether the bull market that began a year ago is still alive.<\/p>\n<p><em>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at <\/em><em>mark@hulbertratings.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>More:<\/strong>\u00a0Why stocks are likely to be especially volatile this October<\/p>\n<p><strong>Also read: <\/strong>Here\u2019s a roadmap for stocks to own and avoid this earnings season<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/the-bull-market-is-one-year-old-though-its-already-looking-post-peak-40542bf4?mod=investing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The bull market that began one year ago is one of the weakest in U.S. history. After comparing the current bull market with all others since 1900, you could even argue that the rally beginning in October 2022 was just a bear market rally. Such an argument would be particularly compelling in light of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":70250,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-70249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The bull market is one year old and it\u2019s already looking post-peak | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The bull market that began one year ago is one of the weakest in U.S. history. 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