{"id":69931,"date":"2023-10-07T13:53:51","date_gmt":"2023-10-07T17:53:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/inflation-is-over-what-comes-next\/"},"modified":"2023-10-07T13:53:54","modified_gmt":"2023-10-07T17:53:54","slug":"inflation-is-over-what-comes-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=69931","title":{"rendered":"Inflation Is Over \u2013 What Comes Next?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Here is how some of the leaders of the financial establishment see the inflation situation today.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cWhile inflation has fallen a lot, it continues to be almost 2 percentage points higher than our target.\u201d \u2013 <em>President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve<\/em><\/li>\n<li>\u201cAlthough there has been some progress, inflation remains too high.\u201d \u2013 <em>President of the Cleveland Fed<\/em><\/li>\n<li>\u201cI know of no theoretical framework that can tell us how much we will need to tighten long real rates to get inflation back to target in a reasonable time frame.\u201d \u2013 <em>President of the Minnesota Fed<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Wrong. Wrong. And \u2026Uncertain, but leaning to Wrong.<\/p>\n<p>The recent inflation data paint a very different picture.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Unpacking the Latest Inflation Figures<\/h2>\n<p>The August figure showing a 0.1% rise month-over-month in the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), published last week (Sept 29), is very revealing \u2013 or should be.<\/p>\n<p>This is <strong>what the headlines should have said<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u201cInflation\u201d is over. We have met the Fed\u2019s 2% target.<\/li>\n<li>In fact, the data are starting to signal looming <em>deflation<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li>As the rate of inflation fell in the last year, consumer spending (\u201cdemand\u201d) accelerated.<\/li>\n<li>As the rate of inflation fell in the last year, unemployment held steady at historic lows.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>In other words, at least two of the standard causal theories for inflation failed to explain this episode. \u201cExcess demand\u201d is not driving price increases. \u201cWage pressure\u201d is not driving price increases. Leading economists\u2019 models have generated predictions that have turned out to be ludicrously \u2013 and thankfully \u2013 incorrect.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s a lot of \u201cdebunking\u201d packaged into one metric. Let\u2019s elaborate.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">1. Inflation is over.<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u201cThree good months in a row\u201d \u2013 Front-page headline in <em>The Financial Times<\/em> (Oct 1, 2023)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Core PCE (which excludes volatile energy and food price) rose just <strong>0.1%<\/strong> in August compared to July. <strong>Over the last three months, it has risen at an annualized rate of just 2.16%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, the trailing 3-month run rate (annualized) has been declining steadily all year.<\/p>\n<p>This is a strong indication that \u201cinflation\u201d is over \u2013 if \u201cover\u201d means that the current rate has fallen back (nearly) to the Fed\u2019s 2% target.<\/p>\n<p>Two questions may arise:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Is it legitimate to use a shorter term run rate (e.g., 3 months) rather than the traditional 12-month year-over-year comparison?<\/li>\n<li>Is it legitimate to rely on the Core PCE \u2013 which excludes Food and Energy \u2013 instead of the headline PCE (which includes all components)?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><em>Justification for the Shorter Run Rate<\/em><\/h3>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has been criticized for being late to recognize the emergence of inflationary trends in 2021 and 2022. This is largely a consequence of the Fed\u2019s reliance on year-over-year measures of inflation, which create a built-in delay in the inflation signal \u2013 as described in my previous column, here. By emphasizing year-over-year comparisons, the Fed can\u2019t see changes in price trends until long after they have occurred.<\/p>\n<p>Averaging over a period longer than a single month is reasonable, to compensate for the high volatility in the month-to-month readings. But only up to a point. The longer the averaging interval, the more information is lost or becomes stale. Averaging the signal out over a full year, looking backwards, means the Fed will be too slow to capture the changes in the economy, as some prominent economists are beginning to recognize.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u201cMost working economists consider a year to be too long a lag<\/strong>. <strong>The inflation situation is changing rapidly.\u201d<\/strong> &#8211; Paul Krugman, in <em>The New York Times<\/em> (Sept 15, 2023)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The year-over-year measure is out-of-date by definition. Averaging over the past 3-6 months provides a much more accurate picture of the current state of the economy, while still moderating the monthly volatility.<\/p>\n<p>This is not a radical idea. Financial journalists have begun to cite the 3-month run-rate more often \u2013 e.g. here, and here, and here. Even some Fed leaders have started quoting the 3-month and 6-month rates in favorable contrast to the traditional year-over-year comparisons. Lael Brainard, former vice-chair of the Fed, gave a speech in January that implicitly recommended short-term averages over the traditional year-over-year figures.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cInflation in December is likely to have run at around a 2.3 percent annualized pace on a 3- and 6-month basis, as compared with 5.1 percent on a 12-month basis.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A consensus on this point is developing. I predict that in the future the shorter averaging intervals will displace the year-over-year measure.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><em>Why the Core PCE is Preferable<\/em><\/h3>\n<p>Food and Energy prices are consistent sources of monthly volatility. \u201cCore\u201d measures remove these from the index, for a more accurate picture of broad inflation trends.<\/p>\n<p>The volatility-reduction is significant. From 2000 until 2019, <strong>the headline PCE was 2.5 times more volatile than the Core PCE<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gasoline<\/strong> prices in particular contributed the most to the increase in the headline PCE in August. Over the last 10 years, the year-over-year price of gasoline (measured weekly)was almost<strong> 17 times more volatile than the Core PCE.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A more sophisticated volatility-reduction strategy is found in the index developed by the Dallas Federal Reserve: the <strong>Trimmed Mean PCE<\/strong>, which dynamically eliminates the biggest gainers and the biggest decliners from the index each month. This metric shows even more clearly the disinflation \u2013 and even deflation \u2013 now developing in the economy.<\/p>\n<p>In sum, we get a better picture of what is really happening <em>right now <\/em>by (1)<em> <\/em>using<em> <\/em>a shorter averaging period, and (2) trimming the most volatile components in the index.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cJason Furman, a Harvard university professor and former administration official, said the US data marked \u2018<strong>three unambiguously good months in a row<\/strong>\u2019 for <strong>core inflation<\/strong>, which excludes energy and food and is watched closely by central banks as a gauge of underlying price pressures.\u201d \u2013 <em>The Financial Times<\/em> (October 1, 2023)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">2. Consumer Spending Has Accelerated In The Last Year \u2013 Inflation Came Down Anyway<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cInflation\u2026induced by lower supplies of raw materials may call for a policy response different from the traditional tonic of demand restriction called for by a \u2018garden-variety\u2019 inflation generated by excess demand.\u201d \u2013 Economist Robert J. Gordon (1975)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>One of the standard theories of inflation holds that it is caused by \u201cexcess demand.\u201d Too many buyers, with too much money, crowding the market and bidding up prices.<\/p>\n<p>Was this the cause of the inflationary spasm of 2021-2022? The large post-pandemic stimulus programs made this Demand-Driven model of inflation seem plausible to many. $5 trillion flooded the economy, including $800 billion in cold cash distributed to ordinary people \u2013 stimulus checks direct to individuals and families. It seemed obvious to many that all that money would find its way into the economy in the form of higher spending \u2013 indeed that was the explicit purpose of the stimulus \u2013 and it also seemed obvious, to critics, that it would stoke inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Tracking the effects of the stimulus money through the economy is challenging. All the charts show the effects of the multiple shocks that set the system ringing like a bell in 2020 and 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Initially, however, the surge in consumer income went almost entirely into savings, not spending. Savings quadrupled to nearly $4 Trillion, and then slowly bled out into increased spending. The chaos took about 18 months to work through the system, with both savings and spending gyrating wildly. It is difficult to model these effects.<\/p>\n<p>Once the normal pattern was re-established, however, spending continued to rise even as inflation began to fall. In the last six months, consumer spending has accelerated \u2013 rising at annual rate of about 5% \u2013 while inflation (PCE Core monthly annualized run rate) has fallen from 4.1% to 1.8%.<\/p>\n<p>In short, inflation is now falling even as consumer spending is rising. While the stimulus did to some degree \u201cstimulate\u201d consumer expenditures, the recent rise in prices cannot be fully explained by \u201cexcess demand.\u201d Recent inflation was principally caused by constraints on the supply side (as several recent columns have illustrated in detail).<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">3. \u201cWage Pressure\u201d Is Not Driving Inflation<\/h2>\n<p>The Fed has obsessed over the strength of the labor markets, right up to this week\u2019s stronger-than-expected jobs growth data. But it is not clear that this has anything to do with inflation. Wage growth, like spending, has been trending upwards, while inflation has declined sharply over the last 6 months.<\/p>\n<p>More important \u2014 unemployment is <em>not<\/em> increasing.<\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong>This contravenes the other stalwart of conventional wisdom on the cause of inflation: \u201cwage pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The idea that labor costs are decisive in driving price increases is deeply rooted in mainstream economic theory. The (in)famous (and \u201cunstable\u201d) Phillips Curve treats labor market tightness as a central explanatory factor in inflation. It posits a trade-off \u2013 that is, an inverse relationship &#8211; between inflation and unemployment, such that low unemployment leads to tight labor market conditions, which embolden and empower workers to demand higher wages, driving up prices. If that were true, the current historically low unemployment should have sustained a much higher inflation rate. Which did not happen. Inflation came down as unemployment remained steady.<\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong>In its most virulent form, \u201cwage pressure\u201d becomes (in the minds of the theorists) the dreaded \u201cwage-price spiral.\u201d<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cWage increases cause price increases which in turn cause wage increases, in a positive feedback loop.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This inspires policy-makers to look for ways to increase unemployment, thereby reducing consumer demand and weakening labor\u2019s ability to win further wage increases. This script \u2013raising unemployment to reduce demand and \u201ctame\u201d inflation \u2013 has become scripture for many economic pundits. It was only a year ago that Larry Summers told us that<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cWe need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation \u2014 in other words, we need two years of 7.5% unemployment or five years of 6% unemployment or one year of 10% unemployment.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In the year since that dire pronouncement \u2013 a year marked by the most rapid monetary tightening program in American history \u2013 unemployment has remained essentially unchanged, \u201cstuck\u201d at the lowest level in history. The labor market is unhealthily healthy. Too many people have jobs, making too much money. At the same time, and against all expectations, inflation has plummeted, and essentially has now disappeared.<\/p>\n<p>Even Prof Summers has had to at least scratch his head over this turn of events.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cThe inflation performance at this point is better than I think many standard models would have predicted.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>There\u2019s actually a lot of head-scratching going on.<em> The Economist, <\/em>for example,<em> <\/em>asks \u201cWhy are the labour markets breaking the historical rule?\u201d and, a bit ruefully, \u201cWhy aren\u2019t more people being sacked?\u201d [Such is the heart-cry of a disappointed orthodoxy.]\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">4. Deflation Is The Real Threat<\/h2>\n<p>The ultra-low PCE for August, taken together with several other metrics, points to the danger of deflation lurking around the corner.<\/p>\n<p>The Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for commodities and for manufacturing have been falling and are now in deflationary territory.<\/p>\n<p>The PPI is a powerful leading indicator for the CPI and the PCE. Producer prices predict future consumer prices with extraordinary accuracy. <strong>The correlation of the producer prices with consumer prices 6 months later is almost 90%. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the M2 measure of the money supply has gone negative for the first time in history.<\/p>\n<p>This is an alarming development. S&amp;P Global has warned of a \u201cdeflationary spiral\u201d leading to \u201ceconomic starvation\u201d \u2013<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cIf the money stock continues to fall, however, it could lead to outright deflation, where prices will start to generally decline and the rate of inflation will fall below 0% \u2026 Deflation, wherein inflation rates go negative and prices fall throughout the economy, can lead to diminished purchasing power and a rise in unemployment.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Implications<\/h2>\n<p>What happens now depends on whether we accept, quibble, or deny the obvious conclusion: the Fed has been late to recognize the shift from inflation to disinflation\/deflation. Its models and metrics did not pick it up.<\/p>\n<p>On side of acceptance, some observers are beginning to recognize that a change in our conceptions and preconceptions is called for.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cThe labor market\u2019s persistent strength has<strong> surprised economists at the Fed,<\/strong> who have adjusted their unemployment forecasts down by half a percentage point, and those on Wall Street, where once-rampant recession predictions have been postponed or withdrawn. It has also <strong>forced a rethinking <\/strong>of the ingrained assumption that labor-market weakness is a necessary step to restore price stability.\u201d &#8211; <em>Barron\u2019s<\/em> (Oct 2, 2023)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Some regulators are also drifting towards the light \u2013<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, in a speech Thursday [Sept 28], <strong>warned against allowing interest-rate policy to be guided too heavily by standard economic models<\/strong> that assume higher unemployment will be required to bring inflation down. \u2018We need to be extra careful about indexing policy to this traditional view,\u2019 he said. If the economy is behaving differently because of pandemic-driven distortions, following those<strong> traditional models would create a \u2018serious risk of a near-term policy error,<\/strong>\u2019 he said, using diplomatic jargon to signal alarm about overtightening.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It would be a victory for humanity if one of the outcomes here were the abandonment of the cruel notion that in order to cure inflation it is necessary to cast millions of people out of work and into poverty.<\/p>\n<p>In the quibble mode, there is still much fretting in the media and among policy-makers over whether the labor market is \u201ctoo strong\u201d to allow for a shift in monetary policy. (This is the \u201chigher for longer\u201d crowd.) The quibblers puzzle over the right measures of labor tightness, whether \u201cjob openings\u201d is a better or worse indicator than, say, \u201cquit rates\u201d\u2026<\/p>\n<p>The role played by labor market conditions in giving rise to and sustaining price inflation is very front-of-mind at the Federal Reserve these days, which is worrisome. It often seems as though, faced with clear evidence that inflation is coming down in most segments, the Fed needs to find some hook on which to hang its case for higher rates, or \u201chigher for longer\u201d \u2013 and labor tightness has become that hook. This is not exactly the nihilism of Prof Summers\u2019 2022 pronouncements, but it is still a form of resistance to the idea that labor costs may not be the real problem.<\/p>\n<p>Then there are the Disinflation\/Deflation Deny-ers \u2013<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said the US central bank will likely need to raise rates once more this year and then hold them at higher levels for some time to get inflation back to its 2% target\u2026. Mester said the rate of inflation remains too high\u2026 She said rising gas prices resonate strongly with consumers, who could expect inflation to start accelerating again.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201cInflation remains too high\u201d? This is obtuse.<\/p>\n<p>Depressingly, many in the Deny-er camp still occupy positions of authority, either in the public media, or at the Fed and other central banks, where they still have the power to cause real suffering through their misguided pronouncements and bad policy decisions. We can hope that their influence is eroding as the disinflationary\/deflationary picture becomes clearer.<\/p>\n<p>For more on this topic, see also:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/georgecalhoun\/2023\/10\/07\/inflation-is-over--what-comes-next\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here is how some of the leaders of the financial establishment see the inflation situation today. \u201cWhile inflation has fallen a lot, it continues to be almost 2 percentage points higher than our target.\u201d \u2013 President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve \u201cAlthough there has been some progress, inflation remains too high.\u201d \u2013 President of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":69932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-69931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Inflation Is Over \u2013 What Comes Next? 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