{"id":69619,"date":"2023-10-06T17:48:22","date_gmt":"2023-10-06T21:48:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/a-reversal-is-in-sight-stock-market-and-sentiment-results\/"},"modified":"2023-10-06T17:48:35","modified_gmt":"2023-10-06T21:48:35","slug":"a-reversal-is-in-sight-stock-market-and-sentiment-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=69619","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;A Reversal Is In Sight&#8217; Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m writing this from Portugal this week \u2013 as we had a trip planned months ago to visit Lisbon, Algarve and Sintra. Being in this game long enough \u2013 you come to understand that the market and your positions will only go in one<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> direction (down) the minute you go on vacation! If you work in the business, you are chuckling as you read this. By the time your flight lands on the home tarmac, the selling pressure is over and markets recover leaving you with not a thing to do. Pain when you want to golf, pleasure when you want to work. God has a sense of humor\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Sometimes it\u2019s nice to leave NYC and CT to get some perspective. In summary, no one cares about the markets outside of Wall Street! They are living their lives in the sunshine (I<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> guess knowing that sooner or later good companies resolve to the upside). Okay, that\u2019s my commentary! But in all seriousness, the time difference is ideal. Get in 18 holes before the market open, work, then family time for the rest of the day. Rinse and repeat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As I keep a pulse on the markets, it is apparent that things have gotten stretched to the downside and that a reversal is in sight. If you\u2019re trying to pin it to the day, I land in Newark on Sunday!<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">MoneyShow \u201cInside Alternatives\u201d<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Today I joined the MoneyShow\u2019s special virtual segment on Alternative Asset Managers. Thanks to Debbie Osborne for having me on:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-embed paywall-full-content invisible\" data-id=\"24777\" data-provider=\"Vimeo\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/embed\/24777\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" width=\"640\" height=\"284\" class=\"sa-embed-iframe embed-responsive-item\" data-original-width=\"640\" data-original-height=\"284\" data-id=\"24777\" data-provider=\"Vimeo\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Here were my notes ahead of the session. You\u2019ll see that the host took it in a spontaneous direction:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>*Please tell our audience a little bit about your firm and your investment strategy.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>\u201cIn simple terms, \u2018we buy <span>straw hats<\/span> in the winter!\u2019\u201d Durable, quality, predictable <span>cash generative assets<\/span> when they are temporarily impaired or out of favor. We usually own <span>8\u201412 companies that make up 80-90%<\/span> of the portfolio \u2013 and when appropriate a long dated derivative overlay to juice returns without taking on material leverage. We take <span>short positions from time to time when the risk is asymmetric in our favor<\/span> and we express with long premium only where we can limit risk (i.e. 1% outlay has EV of 3-5x). As much as everyone wants to be short now, I don\u2019t think an environment where M2 money supply is running $3T above the long-term trend is the right environment to do that!<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>*The low interest rate environment of the last 15 years favored long-duration assets like bonds and growth stocks while challenging many value strategies. Eighteen months ago, everything changed\u2014and dramatically so. How has the advent of inflation and a new central bank regime influenced your investments.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>The simple answer is you now have to do <span>BOTH<\/span>. Last fall when Tech\/Semis were hated and out of favor we bought large positions in AMZN, GOOGL, INTC. Now that many value names are out of favor we are loading up on names like GNRC, SWK, DIS, BAC, BABA, etc. We try to spend <span>less time on macro and more time on cash generation\/business performance<\/span>. You wouldn\u2019t buy an apartment building or a farm (or any other cash producing asset) on the basis of this week\u2019s <span>put\/call ratio<\/span> and <span>vix level<\/span> would you (apt. example)? We think about businesses in the same way and buy when Mr. Market is in his manic mood.<\/em><\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li><strong>Ali and Tom, both of you are in Europe. Is the outlook any different there?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Europeans are more pessimistic generally. If you want to get depressed, read any market strategist from SocGen, BNP, or CS (whoops)!<\/em><\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li><strong>Do you expect a U.S. recession?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Already had it in 2022.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>*Please elaborate upon how you view the market opportunity set over the next 1-3 years. Where do you the biggest opportunities and the most worrisome red flags?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>The biggest surprise between now and the end of the year is is that the <span>rout in bonds is<\/span> <span>coming to an end<\/span>. Hedge Funds are <span>overcrowded short<\/span>, commercials are long. <span>Pension demand<\/span> will come in to lock &gt;4.5% yield for their long-dated liabilities. We would also not be surprised to see central bank intervention step in as we are at the \u201cbreaking things\u201d level of yields. BoJ stepped in at last October\u2019s lows to defend the Yen, markets took off\/dollar collapsed. We would not be surprised to see a redux of this action now. This has MAJOR implications: 1) a bid in bonds and compression in yields will help banks, utilities, reits (all hated just as much as tech last fall). 2) Emerging Markets will rocket higher the minute this short-term counter-trend rally in the dollar stops. <\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>The framework we are using for the next 3 years is similar to 2001-2007 \u2013 massive rally in Emerging Markets, Value and Small Caps. More subdued returns in tech (but will do fine). <\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>*Shorting stocks is one of the more challenging undertakings in investing, but it can be very profitable. How would you describe your short selling philosophy? Are there any specific traits or characteristics you look for or screen for? <\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Well above average historic multiple with slowing growth and a downside catalyst.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>*<\/em><strong>Some sectors ranging from banks to biotechs tend to move fairly closely together. Do you typically favor going long or short individual companies or entire sectors?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Biotech (sector of lottery tickets\/basket \u2013 \u201cdeals and drugs as catalysts\u201d), others company by company.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>*Looking out over the next three to five years, what do think will be the biggest surprise for mainstream investors?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li><em>The <span>market is going to go up a lot more than people expect<\/span> due to the millennials housing\/family formation (pig in the python concept).<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>China will have one last parabolic move up (like Japan) in late 80\u2019s before crashing from demographic debacle.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Burdened By the Facts<\/h3>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_bbg-1.png\" alt=\"PEG Ratio\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Goldman Sachs<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_seas-1.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P vs seasonal pattern\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Topdown Charts<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_panic-1.png\" alt=\"VIX Curve\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_goep.png\" alt=\"change in treasury yields\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Nick Timiraos<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_goep-1.png\" alt=\"Rise in yields\/headlines\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Jason Goepfert <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_cb-2.png\" alt=\"intra-year drawdowns vs end of year returns\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Charlie Bilello<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_ba.jpg\" alt=\"equity sentiment\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>BofA<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">From @SethGolden on Twitter: \u201cAll we hear is savings rate and excess savings falling, consumer stressed more so than ever with repayment of student loans kicking in again October\u2026 and yet from Q2 to Q3 Household net assets value climbed ~$6trn while liabilities only climbed ~$500bn\u2026 with Equity and Bond market prices lower.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_sg_thumb1.jpg\" alt=\"Consumer finances\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Seth Golden<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Now onto the shorter term view for the General Market:<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In this week\u2019s AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent rose to 30.1% from 27.8% the previous week. Bearish Percent moved up to 41.6% from 40.9%. Retail investors are fearful.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_aaii.png\" alt=\"Survey Data\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>AAII.com<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_aaiic.png\" alt=\"AAIIBULL\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Stockcharts<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The CNN \u201cFear and Greed\u201d dropped from 25 last week to 19 this week. Investors are fearful.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_fg1.png\" alt=\"Fear\/Greed\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>CNN<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_fg2.png\" alt=\"Fear\/Greed\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>MacroMicro<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">And finally, the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) dropped to 43.01% this week from 54.33% equity exposure last week. When the tide turns, the \u201cend of year chase\u201d will be on full force.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_n.png\" alt=\"NAAIM\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span>Stockcharts<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Opinion, Not Advice.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4639461-reversal-is-in-sight-stock-market-and-sentiment-results?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m writing this from Portugal this week \u2013 as we had a trip planned months ago to visit Lisbon, Algarve and Sintra. Being in this game long enough \u2013 you come to understand that the market and your positions will only go in one direction (down) the minute you go on vacation! If you work [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":69620,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-69619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>&#039;A Reversal Is In Sight&#039; Stock Market (And Sentiment Results) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I\u2019m writing this from Portugal this week \u2013 as we had a trip planned months ago to visit Lisbon, Algarve and Sintra. 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