{"id":68020,"date":"2023-10-02T20:35:20","date_gmt":"2023-10-03T00:35:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/canadas-grim-economic-outlook-seeking-alpha\/"},"modified":"2023-10-02T20:35:26","modified_gmt":"2023-10-03T00:35:26","slug":"canadas-grim-economic-outlook-seeking-alpha","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=68020","title":{"rendered":"Canada&#8217;s Grim Economic Outlook | Seeking Alpha"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>When bank economists get bearish, you know that data looks pretty dour. Kudos to Robert for candour in this interview.<\/p>\n<p>The chart below shows Canada\u2019s real GDP (in blue since 2021) and the grim per capita reality (in<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> yellow). Canadian consumer sentiment is negative for a reason: there are increasingly fewer resources to go around.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_Real-GDP-per-capita-Canada_thumb1.png\" alt=\"Canadian consumer sentiment is negative\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">It\u2019s no wonder that even with \u2018free money\u2019 mania in 2021, Canada\u2019s TSX (below courtesy of my partner Cory Venable) has gone nowhere in 28 months and gained just 1.91% annualized since the last cycle top in May 2008 (when oil was topping $140 a barrel).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">A mild 20% bear market from here would evaporate the TSX\u2019s price progress over the last 15 years (see red band). A 40% bear market (similar to in 2000-02 and 2008-09) would expunge all price gains since the August 2000<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> top\u201323 years ago. Believe it or not.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_TSX-Sept-28-2023_thumb1.png\" alt=\"Canada\u2019s TSX\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">It <em>bears<\/em> remembering that oil price spikes are typical late cycle and help to trigger price-deflating recessions and global demand destruction. Fossil fuel companies (18% of the TSX index, top black line below) have been the only sector propping up the Canadian stock market since January 2022.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Meanwhile, the financial sector (30% of the index) continues to lead the broad market and economy lower from here. Financial shares, -19% so far, are not yet discounting the magnitude of the credit crunch presently unfolding.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_TSX-sectors-Sept-28-2023_thumb1.png\" alt=\"TSX index\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Most investors are holding portfolios designed to track the broad indices lower from here. Worse this cycle, Canada\u2019s record debt and mean-reverting real estate market will magnify the pain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Disclosure:<\/strong> No positions<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Original Post<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Editor&#8217;s Note:<\/strong> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4638583-canadas-grim-economic-outlook?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When bank economists get bearish, you know that data looks pretty dour. Kudos to Robert for candour in this interview. The chart below shows Canada\u2019s real GDP (in blue since 2021) and the grim per capita reality (in yellow). Canadian consumer sentiment is negative for a reason: there are increasingly fewer resources to go around. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":68021,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-68020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Canada&#039;s Grim Economic Outlook | Seeking Alpha | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"When bank economists get bearish, you know that data looks pretty dour. Kudos to Robert for candour in this interview. 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