After such a terrible September it was never going to take much to get the new month and quarter off to a good start.<\/p>\n
The unexpected last-minute stopgap measure over the weekend to avoid a government shutdown did the trick in early trading Monday, although stock market futures slipped since.<\/p>\n
But how long will the positivity last? The funding bill removes just one headwind\u2014and only takes it off the table for 45 days. The fourth quarter could yet be hit by a shutdown.<\/p>\n
The other risks markets faced in September\u2014including the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation\u2014are still very much in the picture.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not quite all doom and gloom. The avoidance of a shutdown also means economic data will be released as scheduled this week, bringing the potential for good news. It\u2019s a big week for labor market figures particularly, with job openings, private payrolls, and September\u2019s jobs report all on tap.<\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve needs to see the labor market cooling if it\u2019s going to alter its higher-for-longer narrative around interest rates.<\/p>\n
There are more straws for investors to clutch at. October and November have been the second and third best performing months for the S&P 500 over the past 10 years, rising an average 2.3% and 3.2%, according to FactSet data.<\/p>\n
Maybe that statistic, plus a couple of the risks fading into the background, will be enough for the stock market to mount a tentative comeback.<\/p>\n
\u2014Callum Keown<\/em><\/p>\n *** Join Barron\u2019s deputy editor Ben Levisohn today at noon when he talks with Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Gregory Davis and Barron\u2019s senior writer Al Root about the outlook for the Fed, when bond yields will stop rising, and what\u2019s next for the stock market. Sign up here.<\/em><\/p>\n Try your hand at this morning\u2019s Barron\u2019s digital jigsaw, which is based on the week\u2019s cover story. For all games, including the daily crossword and sudoku, click here.<\/em><\/p>\n House Speaker Kevin McCarthy faces a challenge to his leadership after pushing through a stopgap measure to keep the government open this weekend. Hard-liner House Republicans are angry that McCarthy secured the bill\u2019s passage with Democrat votes after their own caucus couldn\u2019t reach agreement.<\/p>\n What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> The stopgap measure gives Congress another 45 days to find agreement on government funding for the next year. Rep. Michael Lawler (R, N.Y.) told ABC that Gaetz\u2019s threatened motion would delay the House\u2019s ability to complete its work on those spending bills.<\/p>\n \u2014Liz Moyer<\/em><\/p>\n Investors await three barometers of the labor market this week, including Friday\u2019s job report for September. Persistent strength in employment has surprised Federal Reserve economists, who have adjusted their unemployment forecasts lower. Even Wall Street analysts have postponed or withdrawn recession forecasts.<\/p>\n What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> A resurgence of inflation, that would demand interest rates to be sharply higher than expected, would make it more difficult for the labor market and the broad economy to maintain their current strength. But a good sign is the recent moderation in job growth has yet to push the unemployment rate higher.<\/p>\n \u2014Liz Moyer and Megan Cassella<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n Once an investor darling, crypto has been in a lull lately, grappling with bored traders and regulatory scrutiny. The trial of former FTX chief Sam Bankman-Fried is a reminder of how the crypto industry got here, and why caution is needed. Bankman-Fried, on trial for fraud, has pleaded not guilty.<\/p>\n What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> The trial, set to begin Tuesday, should be a reminder to investors how little recourse they have should the trading platforms they do business with go under. FTX\u2019s bankruptcy estate is still fighting to recover customer assets, regardless of the trial\u2019s outcome.<\/p>\n \u2014Joe Light and Liz Moyer<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n Tesla introduced an updated version of its best-selling Model Y in China on Sunday, according to a report. It comes ahead of a key day for the electric-vehicle maker Monday, when investors will digest its third-quarter unit sales.<\/p>\n What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> When delivery numbers beat the Street, two-thirds of the time Tesla stock goes up between the delivery report and the earnings report. The delivery number can generate a lot of trading volatility.<\/p>\n \u2014Al Root and Brian Swint<\/em><\/p>\n There is an electric vehicle price war in China, boosting demand. Early delivery results for three of China\u2019s EV makers in September look solid. NIO, What\u2019s Next:<\/strong> Updated forecasts by Cox Automotive for the U.S. has all new-car sales at about 15.4 million units this year, up from 2022\u2019s 14.2 million. For EVs, current-quarter unit sales of about 300,000 would be up 48% from last year and a record 8% of new-car sales.<\/p>\n <\/em>\u2014Al Root and <\/em>Liz <\/em>Moyer<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n***<\/h4>\n
The Government Stayed Open, but the Drama Hasn\u2019t Ended<\/h2>\n
\n
***<\/h4>\n
Jobs in Focus This Week, Including Friday\u2019s September Reading<\/h2>\n
\n
***<\/h4>\n
Bankman-Fried Trial This Week Highlights Crypto Malaise<\/h2>\n
\n
\n Coinbase
\n and Binance are handling around $30 billion trades a day\u2014less than half their levels a year ago<\/strong> and about 15% of the roughly $200 billion in daily volume when Bitcoin was flying high in 2021, according to CoinMarketCap.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n***<\/h4>\n
Key Data for
\n Tesla
\n as It Updates Model Y<\/h2>\n\n
***<\/h4>\n
China\u2019s EV Price War Seems to Be Boosting Activity<\/h2>\n
\n Li Auto,<\/span>
\n and XPeng delivered a combined 66,831 vehicles this past month\u2014up 116% from the same time last year.<\/p>\n\n
\n delivered 15,461 units in September, up about 44%<\/strong> from the same month last year. For the third quarter, NIO delivered 55,432 units\u2014up about 75% from a year ago. Wall Street projects third-quarter sales of about $2.7 billion, up about 48% from last year.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\n delivered 15,310 vehicles in September, up about 81%<\/strong> from one year ago. For the third quarter, XPeng delivered 40,278 units\u2014up about 36% from last year. Wall Street expects third-quarter revenue to hit about $1.2 billion, up about 25% from the same time last year.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\n delivered 36,060 units in September, up about 213%<\/strong> from a year ago. For the quarter, Li delivered 105,108 units, up almost 300% from last year. Wall Street expects third-quarter revenue to rise about 245% from the same time last year, to about $4.6 billion.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n***<\/h4>\n