{"id":67046,"date":"2023-09-29T22:55:36","date_gmt":"2023-09-30T02:55:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/bellring-brands-stock-successfully-navigating-the-nutritional-revolution-nysebrbr\/"},"modified":"2023-09-29T22:55:43","modified_gmt":"2023-09-30T02:55:43","slug":"bellring-brands-stock-successfully-navigating-the-nutritional-revolution-nysebrbr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=67046","title":{"rendered":"BellRing Brands Stock: Successfully Navigating The Nutritional Revolution (NYSE:BRBR)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Investment thesis<\/h2>\n<p>Our current investment thesis is:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>BRBR is benefiting well from a combination of industry tailwinds, as consumers increasingly seek a healthy lifestyle that incorporates exercise, as well as strong product and brand development. The expectation is<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> that its low double-digit growth rate is sustainable going forward, as these factors continue to drive value.<\/span> <\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The broader nutrition industry looks to be growing well, with consumption data trending upward and BRBR&#8217;s development positively received.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">BRBR has higher margins than its peers and they are extremely attractive on an absolute basis. We believe the business is reinvesting to maintain its current trajectory, suggesting efficiencies in margins and cash flow are possible in the medium to long term.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">BRBR does appear expensive but we see sufficient upside, despite the risks of increased competition.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Company description<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">BellRing<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> Brands, Inc. (<\/span><span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">NYSE:BRBR<\/span><span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">) is a prominent player in the consumer packaged goods industry, specializing in the development, marketing, and distribution of various nutrition products, including ready-to-drink protein shakes, powders, and bars. The company operates in the United States and has a notable presence in the health and wellness sector.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Share price<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/saupload_11c2917cd610da7d6363eff722f021c6.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR&#8217;s share price has performed well since the stock was listed, returning over 40% while the S&amp;P has struggled. Although early to judge in detail, investors are broadly impressed by the financial development of the business thus far.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Financial analysis<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-16934688769139192.png\" alt=\"Protein\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">BellRing Brands Financials <span>(Capital IQ)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Presented above are BRBR&#8217;s financial results.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Revenue &amp; Commercial Factors<\/h3>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR&#8217;s revenue has grown at an impressive CAGR of 16% during the last decade, with consistently strong results YoY, carrying into the LTM period.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span><strong>Business Model<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR primarily specializes in protein-based products that cater to consumers&#8217; health and wellness needs. These products include ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, powders, bars, and other nutritional products.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company operates under a range of well-known brands, including Premier Protein, Dymatize, and PowerBar. Each brand caters to different segments of the market, targeting athletes, fitness enthusiasts, and health-conscious consumers. The Dymatize brand has been growing extremely well in recent years, while Premier Protein and PowerBar remain strong.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As the following graph illustrates, the consumption of Premier Protein has broadly remained resilient, despite uncertain conditions, contributing to an upward trajectory supported by pricing action.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-16934047752222984.png\" alt=\"protein shakes creatine\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Premier Protein <span>(BellRing Brands)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Further, the Dymatize brand is performing extremely well currently, with a strong double-digit upward growth trajectory. The expectation is for this to continue, as further brand development and consumer interest drive consumption.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-16934049046436298.png\" alt=\"Dymatize powders\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Dymatize <span>(BellRing Brands)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The following two graphs illustrate the commercial development that underpins the growth trajectory of its brands, with both Premier Protein and Dymatize seeing improved interest over time. The consistency of enhancement is critical as a key risk is that a short-lived trend is driving the uptick.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-16934693378470411.png\" alt=\"GOOG\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Premier Protein <span>(Google)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-16934693684152517.png\" alt=\"PowerBar\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Dymatize <span>(Google)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR distributes its products through various channels, including grocery stores, convenience stores, online retailers, and specialty health stores. This diverse distribution approach ensures wide market reach and accessibility, seeking to exceed its competitors via exposure.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company emphasizes product innovation, frequently introducing new flavors, formulations, and packaging to keep up with changing consumer preferences and trends. New flavors are key because the consumption of these types of products can be unsavory otherwise. Further, the continuous consumption of the products can lead to a lack of desirability and interest in new flavors. Additionally, fundamentally creating new product types is beneficial as it allows BRBR to utilize its brands to increase exposure to the industry. RTD protein shakes and bars provide consumers with convenience, resulting in increased demand. We see further opportunities in this segment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This is a rapidly changing industry with consumer trends adapting rapidly to new product launches and new solutions. For this reason, this is highly important and a key strength of the business we feel, given its track record.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As the following illustrates, RTD Shakes share accelerates on flavor introduction, contributing to a broad increase during this period.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-16934048777724135.png\" alt=\"BRBR\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Share % <span>(BellRing Brands)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Finally, the company leverages e-commerce and direct-to-consumer channels to connect directly with customers and offer a convenient way to purchase its products. This is increasingly becoming a key access point for consumers, as they seek convenience and have enough knowledge to go direct rather than to compare choices (such as through traditional retailers). This is beneficial for BRBR as the economics of each sale is higher, contributing to margin improvement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span><strong>Nutritional Products Industry<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR competes with other nutrition and snacking companies such as The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL), Glanbia plc (OTCPK:GLAPF), and Premier Nutrition Corporation, among many others. Competition is based on brand strength, product quality, and innovation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR has capitalized on the growing consumer demand for health and wellness products, especially those that offer high-quality protein and nutritional benefits. This trend has been driven by greater awareness of the benefits of exercise and a healthy lifestyle. We suspect this will continue long term, primarily due to the marketing support by Governments and businesses to underpin the benefits to society.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The following illustrates that the liquids category continues to outpace historical growth levels. The consistency of this is why we believe it has staying power.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-16934811366413782.png\" alt=\"BRBR\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Liquids growth <span>(BellRing Brands)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The demand for Protein, in particular, has substantially increased. Protein is a sought-after nutrient for muscle recovery, weight management, and overall wellness. As the following graph shows, the interest in &#8220;Protein Shakes&#8221; has consistently increased, underpinning the demand for related products. With the growth interest in healthy lifestyles, many are going down the route of exercise and the subsequent products that can enhance their returns from this. Supplementing protein from meals is an incredibly useful way to achieve this, making protein products sought after in increasing numbers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-16934813434759862.png\" alt=\"pre work out\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Protein Shake <span>(Google)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR has responded to this trend well, with strong household penetration which remains on an upward trajectory. This is supplemented by product development, both flavors and formulation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-1693404858520074.png\" alt=\"BRBR\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Market penetration <span>(BellRing Brands)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Competitive Positioning<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We believe BRBR&#8217;s key competitive advantages are:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <em>Well-Known Brands.<\/em> The company&#8217;s portfolio includes reputable brands that consumers trust for quality and effectiveness.<\/li>\n<li> <em>Innovative Product Offerings.<\/em> Introducing new flavors, formulations, and packaging keeps the product lineup exciting and relevant to changing consumer tastes.<\/li>\n<li> <em>Packaging and Branding.<\/em> Attractive packaging and branding contribute to shelf visibility and consumer appeal.<\/li>\n<li> <em>Retail Partnerships.<\/em> Distribution through various retail channels ensures that BRBR&#8217;s products are accessible to a wide range of consumers and in conjunction with its brands allows for preferential shelf space.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Margins<\/h3>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR&#8217;s margins are impressive, although have not materially improved in the last few years at an EBITDA-M level despite the increased scale. This is a reflection of competition with the industry and the need to reinvest in the company&#8217;s operations to drive future growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We suspect further improvement is possible with operating cost leverage, but is unlikely to be realized in the near term as BRBR&#8217;s growth trajectory is supported.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Balance sheet &amp; Cash Flows<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR has utilized debt to support growth, with interest comprising 4% of revenue and an interest coverage ratio of 4.4x. This level is not overly concerning and we would expect future growth to dilute this ratio.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Inventory turnover has noticeably declined in at Jun23, implying a slowdown in demand. Although this has not yet been felt at a revenue level, this must be monitored as it could be the early signs of a slowdown in near-term growth.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Outlook<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-16934685631557748.png\" alt=\"CONSENSUS\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Outlook <span>(Capital IQ)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Presented above is Wall Street&#8217;s consensus view on the coming 5 years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Analysts are forecasting a continuation of the company&#8217;s strong growth, with a CAGR of 11% into FY25. Further, margins are expected to incrementally improve, although not to the degree achieved in recent years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The growth targets appear broadly reasonable, although we note significant scope for upside beyond this through new product launchings and M&amp;A. Further, we believe the margin expectations lean toward conservative but given the natural expectation of growing competition and reinvestment, this is an understandable view.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> <\/h2>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Industry analysis<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-16934037083862393.png\" alt=\"growth stocks\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Personal Products Stocks <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Presented above is a comparison of BRBR&#8217;s growth and profitability to the average of its industry, as defined by Seeking Alpha (18 companies).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR performs extremely well when compared to its peers. The company has achieved noticeably better growth across the period, in both revenue and profitability. This is primarily a reflection of the industry tailwinds experienced, in conjunction with the company&#8217;s strong market penetration. We expect this trend to continue into the medium term at a minimum.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Further, the company boasts superior margins, although slightly lacks in FCF. Again, with strong demand and an above-average trajectory, the business is positioned to price aggressively relative to costs. This should be a maintainable advantage that can be built on with further scale.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Valuation<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/55358919-1693403716604159.png\" alt=\"DCF\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Valuation <span>(Capital IQ)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR is currently trading at 22x LTM EBITDA and 17x NTM EBITDA. This is a premium to its historical average.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR&#8217;s premium to its historical average is undoubtedly warranted, owing to the company&#8217;s increased scale, continuation of industry tailwinds, and financial\/commercial improvement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Further, a premium to its industry average appears reasonable, particularly due to the sustainability of its financial superiority and the attractiveness of the industry in the medium term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We believe there is still value to be extracted from BRBR, as its growth rate appears sustainable. Further, as the business transitions toward maturity, operational efficiencies should allow for margin and cash flow improvements.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Key risks with our thesis<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The risks to our current thesis are:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <em>Growth slowdown.<\/em> BRBR&#8217;s valuation is noticeably above its industry average, with growth partially priced in by investors. This increases the risk of an adverse share price response to a weak quarterly result. We would not consider this an issue, and with inventory turnover declining and some weak periods for consumption, the chance of this is not minimal.<\/li>\n<li> <em>Increased competition.<\/em> Due to the high margins, this is a highly attractive industry and so the risk is that new entrants will drive prices down and slow growth. Our expectation is that brand building and product development will give the company a sufficient position that this risk is not a material concern.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Final thoughts<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR is an attractive business in our view. The industry is experiencing a substantial tailwind that we suspect will continue in the coming years. Although the company has materially benefited from this, much credit must be given to Management for brand building and product development. The company has a strong suite of brands and products, that we believe are positioned well to outperform in the coming years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">BRBR is not cheap but given its outperformance relative to its peers and its impressive margins, we believe investors are rewarded adequately.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> <\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4638227-bellring-brands-successfully-navigating-nutritional-revolution?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investment thesis Our current investment thesis is: BRBR is benefiting well from a combination of industry tailwinds, as consumers increasingly seek a healthy lifestyle that incorporates exercise, as well as strong product and brand development. The expectation is that its low double-digit growth rate is sustainable going forward, as these factors continue to drive value. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":67047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-67046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>BellRing Brands Stock: Successfully Navigating The Nutritional Revolution (NYSE:BRBR) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investment thesis Our current investment thesis is: BRBR is benefiting well from a combination of industry tailwinds, as consumers increasingly seek a\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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