{"id":66432,"date":"2023-09-28T11:48:54","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T15:48:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/investing\/government-shutdown-could-last-3-weeks-goldman-says\/"},"modified":"2023-09-28T11:48:56","modified_gmt":"2023-09-28T15:48:56","slug":"government-shutdown-could-last-3-weeks-goldman-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=66432","title":{"rendered":"Government Shutdown Could Last 3 Weeks, Goldman Says"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Congress has three days to come up with a plan that avoids a government shutdown on Sunday, but
\n Goldman Sachs
\n \u2018 top economist doesn\u2019t think that\u2019s likely.<\/p>\n

Jan Hatzius, Goldman\u2019s chief economist and head of global investment research, says the odds of a shutdown, starting on Oct. 1, are up to 90%. He estimates it could last two or three weeks. A quick reopening \u201clooks unlikely as political positions become more deeply entrenched,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

\n

The Wall Street bank\u2019s economists believe political pressure will grow during a shutdown as the Oct. 13 and Nov. 1 pay dates for active-duty military personnel come into focus. There is also the fallout from a potential deterioration in essential operations such as airport security screenings and border patrol as workers go unpaid, the report said.<\/p>\n

The White House said service members will continue working without pay during a shutdown, including 1.3 million active-duty troops. Hundreds of thousands of civilian Defense Department workers would be furloughed. Making the military work without pay is likely to be unpopular with voters, with negative consequences for the political party they hold responsible, Hatzius said.<\/p>\n

In addition, more than 13,000 air-traffic controllers, more than 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers and workers, and thousands of Federal Aviation Administration employees would also work without pay. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, this same dynamic led to a rise in absences and resignations, which led to travel delays and airport terminal closures, the note said.<\/p>\n

Hatzius sees a way Congress can emerge from a shutdown, citing the rule that a\u00a0majority of the House can sign what\u2019s called a \u201cdischarge petition\u201d to circumvent the Speaker\u00a0and bring a bill to a vote. It isn\u2019t something that could prevent the shutdown because it requires more maneuvering time than lawmakers have before the deadline, he said. But \u201conce a shutdown occurs, and particularly once political pressure builds, a discharge\u00a0petition might come into play as a means of ending the shutdown.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Goldman estimates that a shutdown would subtract 0.2 percentage points from fourth-quarter gross domestic product for each week it continues, depending on how long it lasts. It expects the same in first-quarter 2024, assuming it has ended by then, in addition to impacts on federal employees and private sector. <\/p>\n

Even if it all ends after two or three weeks, Goldman said additional shutdowns are possible, noting that the two parties remain far apart on spending proposals, and that any agreement to reopen the government would likely expire before the end of the year, risking another lapse in funding.<\/p>\n

Write to Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Congress has three days to come up with a plan that avoids a government shutdown on Sunday, but Goldman Sachs \u2018 top economist doesn\u2019t think that\u2019s likely. Jan Hatzius, Goldman\u2019s chief economist and head of global investment research, says the odds of a shutdown, starting on Oct. 1, are up to 90%. He estimates it […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66433,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-66432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\nGovernment Shutdown Could Last 3 Weeks, Goldman Says | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Congress has three days to come up with a plan that avoids a government shutdown on Sunday, but Goldman Sachs \u2018 top economist doesn\u2019t think that\u2019s likely.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=66432\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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