{"id":66379,"date":"2023-09-28T09:18:37","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T13:18:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/which-airlines-stock-will-offer-better-returns-american-or-united\/"},"modified":"2023-09-28T09:18:39","modified_gmt":"2023-09-28T13:18:39","slug":"which-airlines-stock-will-offer-better-returns-american-or-united","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=66379","title":{"rendered":"Which Airlines Stock Will Offer Better Returns \u2013 American Or United?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Given its better prospects, we believe <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/UAL\/\">United Airlines stock<\/strong> (NASDAQ<fbs-ticker data-name=\"NDAQ\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/nasdaq\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  NDAQ<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>: UAL) is a better pick than its peer, <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/AAL\">American Airlines stock<\/strong> (NASDAQ: AAL). AAL is trading at a slightly lower valuation of <strong>0.2x<\/strong> revenues than <strong>0.3x<\/strong> for UAL. Investors have assigned a higher multiple to United Airlines stock due to its superior revenue growth and comparatively better financial position, as discussed below.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, AAL stock has had a Sharpe Ratio of <strong>-0.2<\/strong> since early 2017, lower than <strong>0.0 <\/strong>for UAL and <strong>0.6<\/strong> for the S&amp;P 500 Index over the same period. This compares with the <strong>Sharpe of 1.3<\/strong> for the Trefis Reinforced Value portfolio. Sharpe is a measure of return per unit of risk, and high-performance portfolios can provide the best of both worlds.<\/p>\n<p>If we look at stock returns, United Airlines, with 13% returns this year, has fared better than American Airlines, up 0%, and the broader S&amp;P 500 index, up 11%. There is more to the comparison, and in the sections below, we discuss why we believe UAL will offer better returns than AAL in the next three years. We compare a slew of factors, such as historical revenue growth, returns, and valuation, in an interactive dashboard analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/AAL\/no-login-required\/yd5KMftk\/American-Airlines-vs-United-Airlines-Holdings-With-Return-Forecast-Of-10-United-Airlines-Holdings-Is-A-Better-Bet?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">American Airlines vs. United Airlines<\/strong>: <strong>Which Stock Is A Better Bet?<\/strong> Parts of the analysis are summarized below.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. United Airlines\u2019 Revenue Growth Is Slightly Better<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>United Airlines\u2019 revenue growth has been slightly better, with a <strong>26%<\/strong> average annual growth rate in the last three years, compared to <strong>25%<\/strong> for American Airlines.<\/li>\n<li>The rise in revenues for both airlines over the recent years can be attributed to a rebound in air travel demand, with passenger traffic and ticket yield rising meaningfully in the recent past.<\/li>\n<li>For perspective, American Airlines\u2019 available seat miles declined 25% between 2019 and 2021 but surged 21% y-o-y in 2022. Similarly, its passenger revenue per available seat mile fell 18% between 2019 and 2021 but rose 41% y-o-y in 2022.<\/li>\n<li>In comparison, United Airlines\u2019 ASM decreased 27% between 2019 and 2021 before rising 39% y-o-y in 2022. Its PRASM declined 19% and increased 43% over the same period, respectively.<\/li>\n<li>Looking at the last twelve months, United Airlines\u2019 <strong>43%<\/strong> sales growth has fared better than <strong>30%<\/strong> for American Airlines.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/AAL\/no-login-required\/sZowwWSA\/American-Airlines-AAL-Revenue-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">American Airlines Revenue Comparison<\/strong> and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/UAL\/no-login-required\/p22lpjwv\/United-Airlines-Holdings-UAL-Revenue-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">United Airlines Revenue Comparison<\/strong> dashboards provide more insight into the companies\u2019 sales.<\/li>\n<li>Looking forward, United Airlines will likely see slightly better sales growth than American Airlines. Both companies will likely see their sales rise at a low single-digit average annual growth rate to around $56 billion in three years, based on Trefis Machine Learning analysis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p><strong>2. American Airlines Is More Profitable <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>American Airlines\u2019 reported operating margin slid from <strong>7%<\/strong> in 2019 to <strong>-60% <\/strong>in 2020 before recovering to <strong>3%<\/strong> in 2022. In comparison, United Airlines\u2019 operating margin fell from <strong>9%<\/strong> in 2019 to <strong>-49%<\/strong> in 2020 but rose to <strong>2%<\/strong> in 2022.<\/li>\n<li>Looking at the last twelve-month period, American Airlines\u2019 operating margin of <strong>9% <\/strong>fares better than <strong>5% <\/strong>for United Airlines.<\/li>\n<li>However, both airlines will likely face pressure on margins with oil prices rising to their ten-month high now. Also, both airlines have recently closed negotiations with pilots, agreeing to an increase in pay by 40% for UAL and 46% for AAL over the next four years.<sup> [<\/sup><sup data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/#identifier_0_551639\">1<\/sup><sup>] [<\/sup><sup data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/#identifier_1_551639\">2<\/sup><sup>]<\/sup><\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/AAL\/no-login-required\/ZC55nppQ\/American-Airlines-AAL-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">American Airlines Operating Income Comparison<\/strong><strong> <\/strong>and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/UAL\/no-login-required\/0zlvAULb\/United-Airlines-Holdings-UAL-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">United Airlines Operating Income Comparison<\/strong><strong> <\/strong>dashboards have more details.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>3. United Airlines Is Comparatively A Less Risky Pick<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Looking at financial risk, United Airlines fares better. Its <strong>214%<\/strong> debt as a percentage of equity is lower than <strong>410%<\/strong> for American Airlines, while its 26% cash as a percentage of assets is higher than 18% for the latter, implying that United Airlines has a comparatively better debt position and more cash cushion.<\/li>\n<li>The high debt-to-equity figures for both airlines can be attributed to much higher debt levels compared to their market capitalizations ($8 billion for AAL and $14 billion for UAL).<\/li>\n<li>American Airlines\u2019 total debt increased from $24.3 billion in 2019 to $38.1 billion in 2022, while its total cash increased from around $4.0 billion to $13.4 billion over the same period. However, the rise in cash balance is primarily due to additional debt raised, as heavy negative operating cash flows in 2020 of $6.5 billion almost completely wiped out positive operating cash flows in 2019, 2021, and 2022.<\/li>\n<li>In comparison, United Airlines\u2019 total debt increased from $15 billion in 2019 to $31 billion in 2022, while its total cash increased from around $2 billion to $9 billion over the same period. However, the rise in cash balance is partly due to additional debt raised, given the $4 billion negative operating cash flows in 2020.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>3. The Net of It All<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We see that United Airlines has seen superior revenue growth and has a better financial position. On the other hand, American Airlines is more profitable.<\/li>\n<li>However, looking at prospects, using P\/S as a base, due to high fluctuations in P\/E and P\/EBIT, we believe United Airlines will likely offer better returns over the next three years, primarily due to its slightly better-expected revenue growth.<\/li>\n<li>If we compare the current valuation multiples to the historical averages, both appear to have equal upside. American Airlines stock trades at <strong>0.2x<\/strong> sales compared to its last five-year average of <strong>0.4x<\/strong>, and United Airlines stock trades at <strong>0.3x<\/strong> revenues vs. the last five-year average of <strong>0.6x<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/AAL\/no-login-required\/NiAsbQYs\/American-Airlines-AAL-Valuation-Ratios-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">American Airlines Valuation Ratios Comparison<\/strong> and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/UAL\/no-login-required\/rcfCafyk\/United-Airlines-Holdings-UAL-Valuation-Ratios-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">United Airlines Valuation Ratios Comparison<\/strong> have more details.<\/li>\n<li>The table below summarizes our revenue and return expectations for both companies over the next three years and points to an expected return of <strong>5%<\/strong> for American Airlines and <strong>10% <\/strong>return for United Airlines over this period, based on Trefis Machine Learning analysis \u2013 <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/AAL\/no-login-required\/yd5KMftk\/American-Airlines-vs-United-Airlines-Holdings-With-Return-Forecast-Of-10-United-Airlines-Holdings-Is-A-Better-Bet?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">American Airlines vs. United Airlines<\/strong>\u2013 which also provides more details on how we arrive at these numbers.<\/li>\n<li>Although we believe UAL is a better pick over AAL, we acknowledge that 10% returns for UAL isn\u2019t great. There are better opportunities over UAL stock. Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/UAL\/no-login-required\/WcdBeSbW\/Better-Bet-Than-UAL-Stock-index-Peers?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">Better Bets Than UAL Stock<\/strong> dashboard details S&amp;P500 stocks that can offer better returns in the next three years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While UAL may outperform AAL in the next three years, it is helpful to see how <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/AAL\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">American Airlines\u2019 Peers<\/strong> fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Peer Comparisons<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/09\/28\/which-airlines-stock-will-offer-better-returns--american-or-united\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Given its better prospects, we believe United Airlines stock (NASDAQ NDAQ : UAL) is a better pick than its peer, American Airlines stock (NASDAQ: AAL). AAL is trading at a slightly lower valuation of 0.2x revenues than 0.3x for UAL. Investors have assigned a higher multiple to United Airlines stock due to its superior revenue [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66380,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-66379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Which Airlines Stock Will Offer Better Returns \u2013 American Or United? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Given its better prospects, we believe United Airlines stock (NASDAQ NDAQ : UAL) is a better pick than its peer, American Airlines stock (NASDAQ: AAL).\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=66379\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Which Airlines Stock Will Offer Better Returns \u2013 American Or United? 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