{"id":66360,"date":"2023-09-28T08:15:54","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T12:15:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/should-you-pick-humana-over-csx-stock-for-the-next-three-years\/"},"modified":"2023-09-28T08:15:56","modified_gmt":"2023-09-28T12:15:56","slug":"should-you-pick-humana-over-csx-stock-for-the-next-three-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=66360","title":{"rendered":"Should You Pick Humana Over CSX Stock For The Next Three Years?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>We believe <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HUM\/\">Humana stock<\/strong> (NYSE: HUM) is a better pick than <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/CSX\/\">CSX stock<\/strong> (NYSE: CSX<fbs-ticker data-name=\"CSX\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/csx\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  CSX<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>), given its better prospects. Although these companies are from different sectors, we compare them because they have a similar market capitalization of around $61 billion, and both are part of the broader S&amp;P500 index. The decision to invest often comes down to finding the best stocks within the parameters of certain characteristics that suit an investment style. The size of profits can matter, as larger profits can imply greater market power. Since these stocks are from different sectors, comparing P\/S against one another may not be helpful. We compare their current multiples with the historical ones in the sections below to better gauge their valuations.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, CSX stock has had a Sharpe Ratio of <strong>0.5<\/strong> since early 2017, lower than <strong>0.6 <\/strong>for HUM and the S&amp;P 500 Index over the same period. This compares with the <strong>Sharpe of 1.3<\/strong> for the Trefis Reinforced Value portfolio. Sharpe is a measure of return per unit of risk, and high-performance portfolios can provide the best of both worlds.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at stock returns, both have underperformed vis-\u00e0-vis broader markets amid slowing economic growth. While CSX is down 1% this year, HUM is down 4%, and the S&amp;P500 index is up 11%. There is more to the comparison, and in the sections below, we discuss why we believe HUM will offer better returns than CSX in the next three years. We compare a slew of factors, such as historical revenue growth, returns, and valuation, in an interactive dashboard analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/CSX\/no-login-required\/AOTjDV9V\/CSX-vs-Humana-With-Return-Forecast-Of-19-Humana-Is-A-Better-Bet?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">CSX vs. Humana<\/strong><fbs-ticker data-name=\"HUM\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/humana\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  HUM<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>: <strong>Which Stock Is A Better Bet?<\/strong> Parts of the analysis are summarized below.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. Humana\u2019s Revenue Growth Is Better<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Humana\u2019s top-line expansion has fared better than CSX in recent years. While CSX\u2019s revenue rose at an <strong>8.5%<\/strong> average annual rate in the last three years, Humana\u2019s sales grew at an average rate of <strong>12.8%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>CSX\u2019s revenue growth between 2019 and 2021 can partly be attributed to its Trucking segment sales. CSX acquired Quality Carriers \u2013 a trucking company focused on bulk liquid chemicals transportation \u2013 in 2021, bolstering revenue growth.<\/li>\n<li>CSX has also benefited from a robust pricing environment. CSX\u2019s total volume of carloads remained flat between 2019 and 2022, while its average revenue per unit rose 14%, driving its freight revenue growth.<\/li>\n<li>Humana\u2019s top-line growth has been driven by individual Medicare Advantage membership growth and higher per-member medical premiums.<\/li>\n<li>The company saw a modest rise in its total medical membership base to 17.1 million currently, compared to 16.7 million in 2019.<\/li>\n<li>The Enclara acquisition in 2020 has also bolstered Humana\u2019s top-line growth.<\/li>\n<li>Looking at the last twelve months period, Humana\u2019s <strong>10.5% <\/strong>top-line growth fares better than <strong>7.8%<\/strong> for CSX.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/CSX\/no-login-required\/aBFH39vX\/CSX-CSX-Revenue-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">CSX Revenue Comparison<\/strong> and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HUM\/no-login-required\/8wGna7WR\/Humana-HUM-Revenue-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">Humana Revenue Comparison<\/strong> dashboards provide more insight into the companies\u2019 sales.<\/li>\n<li>Looking forward, sales for CSX are expected to see tepid growth in the near term due to concerns over rising microenvironment risks, elevated costs, a continued rise in interest rates, and a potential recession. In contrast, Humana should continue to benefit from increased memberships and premiums driving its top-line growth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p><strong>2. CSX Is More Profitable <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>CSX\u2019s operating margin increased slightly from <strong>35.4%<\/strong> in 2019 to <strong>35.6%<\/strong> in 2022, while Humana\u2019s operating margin contracted from <strong>4.9%<\/strong> to <strong>4.3%<\/strong> over this period.<\/li>\n<li>Looking at the last twelve-month period, CSX\u2019s operating margin of <strong>34.5%<\/strong> fares far better than <strong>4.7%<\/strong> for Humana.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/CSX\/no-login-required\/nnFJEsLl\/CSX-CSX-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">CSX Operating Income Comparison<\/strong> and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HUM\/no-login-required\/pbTD8HFe\/Humana-HUM-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">Humana Operating Income Comparison<\/strong> dashboards have more details.<\/li>\n<li>Looking at financial risk, Humana fares better. While CSX\u2019s <strong>29%<\/strong> debt as a percentage of equity is higher than <strong>19%<\/strong> for Humana, the latter\u2019s <strong>56%<\/strong> cash as a percentage of assets is higher than <strong>3%<\/strong> for CSX, implying that Humana has a better debt position and more cash cushion.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>3. The Net of It All<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We see that Humana has seen better revenue growth and financial position. On the other hand, CSX is more profitable.<\/li>\n<li>Now, looking at prospects, using P\/S as a base, due to high fluctuations in P\/E and P\/EBIT, we believe Humana is the better choice of the two, primarily due to its superior expected revenue growth.<\/li>\n<li>Even if we compare the current valuation multiples to the historical averages, HUM fares better. CSX is currently trading at <strong>4.1x<\/strong> revenues vs. the last five-year average of <strong>5.0x<\/strong>. In contrast, HUM stock trades at <strong>0.6x<\/strong> revenues vs. the last five-year average of <strong>0.8x<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/CSX\/no-login-required\/ZgdpJNB4\/CSX-CSX-Valuation-Ratios-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">CSX Valuation Ratios Comparison<\/strong> and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HUM\/no-login-required\/2H1zz3FP\/Humana-HUM-Valuation-Ratios-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">Humana Valuation Ratios Comparison<\/strong> dashboards have more details.<\/li>\n<li>The table below summarizes our revenue and return expectations for both companies over the next three years and points to an expected return of <strong>19%<\/strong> for HUM over this period vs. a <strong>6%<\/strong> expected return for CSX, based on Trefis Machine Learning analysis \u2013 <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/CSX\/no-login-required\/AOTjDV9V\/CSX-vs-Humana-With-Return-Forecast-Of-19-Humana-Is-A-Better-Bet?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230928\">CSX vs. Humana<\/strong> \u2013 which also provides more details on how we arrive at these numbers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While HUM may outperform CSX in the next three years, it is helpful to see how <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/CSX\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">CSX\u2019s Peers<\/strong> fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Peer Comparisons<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/09\/28\/should-you-pick-humana-over-csx-stock-for-the-next-three-years\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We believe Humana stock (NYSE: HUM) is a better pick than CSX stock (NYSE: CSX CSX ), given its better prospects. Although these companies are from different sectors, we compare them because they have a similar market capitalization of around $61 billion, and both are part of the broader S&amp;P500 index. The decision to invest [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66361,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-66360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Should You Pick Humana Over CSX Stock For The Next Three Years? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We believe Humana stock (NYSE: HUM) is a better pick than CSX stock (NYSE: CSX CSX ), given its better prospects. 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