{"id":65270,"date":"2023-09-25T14:49:02","date_gmt":"2023-09-25T18:49:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/autodesk-sustainable-growth-and-profound-ai-opportunities-at-a-price-nasdaqadsk\/"},"modified":"2023-09-25T14:49:10","modified_gmt":"2023-09-25T18:49:10","slug":"autodesk-sustainable-growth-and-profound-ai-opportunities-at-a-price-nasdaqadsk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=65270","title":{"rendered":"Autodesk: Sustainable Growth And Profound AI Opportunities At A Price (NASDAQ:ADSK)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture><\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>As long-term investors, it is crucial to select companies with a track record of consistent historical performance and strong pricing power, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. Furthermore, when considering future investments, it&#8217;s essential to identify companies well-positioned for long-term growth. In the technology sector, finding<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> businesses that can sustain growth over extended periods can be challenging. Autodesk (<\/span><span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper paywall-full-content invisible\">NASDAQ:ADSK<\/span><span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">) stands out as a company that fulfills these criteria. Its history of reliable performance, demonstrated pricing power, and forward-looking positioning make it a compelling potential choice for investors seeking stability and growth potential in the ever-evolving tech landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">However, for cautious long-term investors, it&#8217;s important to note that the margin of safety is currently low. The stock may indeed be a good long-term investment, but only if it drops below $170, based on DCF analysis.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Autodesk&#8217;s dominant position in the<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> market contributes to its pricing power<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Autodesk&#8217;s pricing power in the market is underpinned by its status as the primary choice for design and engineering software. In various industries, including architecture, engineering, and construction, Autodesk&#8217;s products are considered indispensable due to their comprehensive features and industry-specific tools. This lack of viable alternatives positions Autodesk as a virtual monopoly in these sectors. With few comparable options available, customers often have little choice but to continue using Autodesk&#8217;s software, providing the company with substantial pricing power.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">One key product that exemplifies Autodesk&#8217;s dominance is AutoCAD, the leading software in computer-aided design (CAD). AutoCAD has secured an impressive 39% market share, making it the go-to solution for professionals in need of CAD software. Its extensive capabilities and compatibility with industry standards have cemented its status as an industry standard. This overwhelming market share not only solidifies Autodesk&#8217;s position but also reinforces its pricing power, as users are reluctant to switch to lesser-known alternatives, ensuring a stable revenue stream for the company.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Hence, the company has demonstrated its ability and willingness to take pricing actions over the years, which is summarized well by GS Investing in a recent Seeking Alpha article:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p><em>Looking back the past few years, we can see that ARPU has been increasing:<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;So you raised prices at the end of March, and I&#8217;m sure that&#8217;s all embedded in your guidance and it allows you to invest appropriately and get to the margins you want.&#8221;<\/em> <em>1Q23 earnings call<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;The uptick in the conversion rate was expected as our maintenance renewal prices increased by 20% in the second quarter, making it more cost-effective for customers to move to subscription.&#8221;<\/em> <em>3Q2020 earnings<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;Effective earlier this month, for all maintenance contracts up for renewal, the price to move to subscription increases 5%, and maintenance plan prices increase 10% if they choose to stay on maintenance.&#8221;<\/em> <em>1Q19 earnings<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As the company continues to expand its push into the subscription revenue model (subscription revenue increased by 12% in constant currency year-over-year in Q2 FY2024), we can anticipate that pricing actions will have an increasingly significant impact in the future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Additionally, Autodesk&#8217;s complete dominance of the European market (it is stated that Autodesk has a market share of 66% in the CAD category in Europe) offers a substantial avenue for revenue growth. With approximately 35% of its revenue originating from Europe, there is significant untapped potential within this region. As the European economy continues to evolve and industries expand, Autodesk&#8217;s suite of design and engineering software is poised to play a pivotal role in driving innovation and efficiency.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">AI is not just a buzzword for Autodesk<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Looking into the future, Autodesk is set to revolutionize the design stage by harnessing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) across multiple domains within the design and engineering process. This AI-driven transformation will involve various approaches, each with distinct capabilities:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li> <strong>Parametric Design<\/strong>: Establishing relationships between design elements.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Design Automation<\/strong>: Automating tasks within parametric models with scripts.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Computational Modeling<\/strong>: Explicitly describing processes to create design outcomes.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Option Generation<\/strong>: Exploring design variations given specific rules.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Design Optimization<\/strong>: Defining goals and exploring model states to meet them.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Machine Learning<\/strong>: Using historical data to generate designs based on stated outcomes.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>Project Refinery<\/strong>: Autodesk&#8217;s tool for exploring and optimizing designs using AI algorithms and data-driven decisions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This AI-driven approach aims to facilitate decision-making by presenting multiple design outcomes, resulting in higher-quality work, increased productivity, and cost savings. By connecting generative design processes to mainstream building production applications like Revit, Autodesk aims to revolutionize the design stage in architecture, engineering, and construction, offering a more intelligent and efficient way to design and build structures.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The application of Autodesk generative design solutions results in higher quality work, greater speed\/productivity, and lower costs.&#8221;<\/em> (Source)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/42686696-16955657865830803.png\" alt=\"A pyramid graph showing how Autodesk's products fit into different AI categories\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Autodesk<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Given the rapid pace of Gen AI development, we can anticipate significant advancements in Autodesk&#8217;s products in the near term. Consequently, the company can further enhance its pricing power and ensure a consistently high subscription renewal rate in the years ahead.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company has demonstrated phenomenal financial performance over the past years, with steady revenue growth and a safe balance sheet<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Autodesk&#8217;s historical financial performance paints a remarkable picture of a solid and thriving company in the tech industry. One standout achievement is the company&#8217;s impressive track record of double-digit revenue growth, spanning at least 17 consecutive quarters from the third quarter of 2019 to the same period in 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/42686696-16955668528522022.png\" alt=\"ADSK earnings history from FQ3 2019 to FQ2 2024\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Seeking Alpha<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Moreover, over the last three quarters, the company has maintained a solid revenue growth rate of around 9%. This resilience highlights Autodesk&#8217;s ability to weather challenging economic conditions and its capacity to continue providing value to its customers, even in turbulent times.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Autodesk&#8217;s financial strength is further exemplified by its expanding operating margin. In just a few years, the company has significantly improved its operating margin, soaring from a mere 1% in 2019 to a robust 20% at present. This impressive transformation signifies Autodesk&#8217;s effective cost management and operational efficiency, which have contributed to its sustained profitability. As the company holds significant pricing power and increases its share of revenue from subscriptions, we can expect the margin expansion to continue in the future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Furthermore, Autodesk&#8217;s consistent debt-to-equity and debt-to-cash ratio over time is a testament to its prudent financial management, showcasing its minimal dependence on borrowed funds for day-to-day operations and expansion strategies. This financial strength not only underscores the company&#8217;s fiscal responsibility but also highlights its capacity to allocate substantial resources towards future ventures, particularly in the realm of AI.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/saupload_708aa0a1925c281d8642864b0af43608.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">These points enhance ADSK&#8217;s appeal as a potentially secure option for long-term investors, assuring them of the company&#8217;s ability to weather uncertainties and embrace future growth opportunities.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Assessing the margin of safety: a DCF analysis<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Despite the positive points above, ADSK stock appears overvalued at the moment, with about 8 P\/S, 37 EV\/EBITDA, and 27 forward P\/E (non-GAAP). To assess an appropriate entry point, I use DCF analysis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">My analysis is based on the following key assumptions:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">1. The average annual revenue growth over the horizon period of five years is estimated to be around 10.4%, with a 9% increase in 2023 (FY2024) and 12% growth between 2024 and 2027, based on analysts&#8217; earnings estimates and adding a fraction of potential AI-driven growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">2. EBITDA margin will increase to 25% and remain stable throughout 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">3. Then goes the WACC.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The after-tax cost of debt is 2.6% (using 15% tax rate), based on the latest Q-10 filings. The cost of equity capital (17.8%) is calculated using CAPM, with 1.49 beta, 4.4% risk-free rate, which is the current U.S. 10-year bond yield, and 9% market premium. The WACC is, therefore, estimated to be around 17%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Here is the operating and balance sheet data used in the modeling:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/42686696-16955707593454778.png\" alt=\"Assumptions for ADSK DCF model\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">The author&#8217;s DCF model<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As a result of these calculations, AMD&#8217;s fair price range is approximately <strong>$173-183<\/strong>, which is about 10% lower than the current stock price.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Note that this price range assumes that the EV\/EBITDA multiple will be around 29-31 after the 5-year forecast period, which is still a bullish assumption. This level is the current average EV\/EBITDA of design\/software peers like Dassault Syst\u00e8mes (OTCPK:DASTY) and Roper Technologies (ROP). Importantly, before 2015, ADSK traded at around 25 EV\/EBITDA for a long time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/saupload_9fe614b1720dfc037549b9cff4c3c51d.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As always, this does not mean that the stock will necessarily drop to the aforementioned level in the near future, as the market might price in different assumptions for Autodesk. However, for a long-term value investor, ADSK provides no margin of safety, which means we should wait for a drop below $170 before investing.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In summary, Autodesk stands as a beacon of financial stability with an impressive history of double-digit quarterly revenue growth, increasing margins, and low debt. Autodesk&#8217;s dominance in the design and engineering software market, exemplified by its irreplaceable products and substantial market share, solidifies its exceptional pricing power.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Looking ahead, Autodesk&#8217;s commitment to harnessing AI across various design domains promises to revolutionize the industry. As Gen AI development accelerates, Autodesk is poised to further enhance its pricing power and maintain a high subscription renewal rate in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">However, despite these positive aspects, it&#8217;s essential to note that Autodesk currently lacks a significant margin of safety for investors. With an estimated fair price range of approximately $173-183 based on DCF analysis, which assumes a bullish EV\/EBITDA multiple after the forecast period, caution is warranted. To ensure a margin of safety, potential investors may want to consider entry points below $170.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4637205-autodesk-sustainable-growth-and-profound-ai-opportunities-at-a-price?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As long-term investors, it is crucial to select companies with a track record of consistent historical performance and strong pricing power, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. Furthermore, when considering future investments, it&#8217;s essential to identify companies well-positioned for long-term growth. In the technology sector, finding businesses that can sustain growth over extended periods can [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":65271,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-65270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Autodesk: Sustainable Growth And Profound AI Opportunities At A Price (NASDAQ:ADSK) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As long-term investors, it is crucial to select companies with a track record of consistent historical performance and strong pricing power, particularly\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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