{"id":64416,"date":"2023-09-23T00:29:03","date_gmt":"2023-09-23T04:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/week-ahead-u-s-and-eurozone-inflation-fed-speak-bank-of-japan-minutes\/"},"modified":"2023-09-23T00:29:06","modified_gmt":"2023-09-23T04:29:06","slug":"week-ahead-u-s-and-eurozone-inflation-fed-speak-bank-of-japan-minutes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=64416","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead \u2013 U.S. And Eurozone Inflation, Fed Speak, Bank Of Japan Minutes"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2><strong>US<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>It will be a busy week filled with a wide range of economic releases, with the focus falling on the consumer and the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge. August personal income is expected to rise given the strong labor market<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> while spending cooled given the end of summer vacations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The bond market will pay extremely close attention to the next round of inflation readings. Headline PCE will likely heat up given the surge in energy prices, while the core reading should maintain the 0.2% monthly pace.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Wall Street will also pay close attention to the UAW strike and if government shutdown odds grow. It will also be a busy week filled with central bank speak. On Monday, the Fed\u2019s Kashkari speaks at Wharton School.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Tuesday contains Bowman\u2019s welcoming remarks at a FedCommunities event on rental housing affordability. Thursday contains<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> four events, with Chair Powell hosting a town hall with educators and speeches from Goolsbee, Cook, and Barkin. Williams speaks on monetary policy on Friday.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Eurozone<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The ECB signaled after its September meeting that its tightening cycle was likely at an end, barring any nasty surprises on the data front. Next week could be the first test of that, with flash HICP inflation data due on Friday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Substantial progress has already been made and much more is expected over the remainder of the year, while a cooling economy and threat of recession is clearly making policymakers nervous.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As always, a number of individual countries will release their inflation numbers in the days leading up to the eurozone release so we could have a pretty good idea of what we\u2019re in for by the time the Friday release happens.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">That aside, there are some surveys released over the course of the week among other tier two and three data. Central bank speak will also be monitored, most notably President Christine Lagarde\u2019s comments as she makes an appearance on the same day as the inflation report is released.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>UK <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The Bank of England surprised markets this past week in choosing to hold the Bank Rate at 5.25, with those backing it taking the vote by the finest of margins 5-4. That doesn\u2019t necessarily mark the end of the tightening cycle but if the data improves as the MPC expect, it may well be.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Any negative data surprises between now and the early November meeting though may tip the balance the other way. There\u2019s going to be even more pressure on the data now, not that there\u2019s really anything of note next week. The final GDP reading for the second quarter is the only one that stands out in any way.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Russia<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">There\u2019s a selection of data due next week although I\u2019m not sure any will hold much sway when it comes to upcoming monetary policy announcements unless they\u2019re particularly shocking.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Industrial output, retail sales, GDP, unemployment, and real wages are among the releases. Russia\u2019s issues with inflation and the currency are much bigger than all of these, although it will be interesting to see how the economy is holding up amid these additional pressures.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>South Africa<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The SARB held rates steady at its September meeting, as expected, with headline and core inflation sitting comfortably within its 3-6% target. The central bank continued to warn about risks to the inflation outlook and hasn\u2019t declared the end of the tightening cycle just yet. PPI figures next week may be of interest.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Turkey<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The Turkish central bank raised interest rates by 5% on Thursday, taking the Key Rate to 30% amid a plunging lira and soaring inflation. The move didn\u2019t help lift the currency which still sits near record lows. Next week doesn\u2019t have much to offer beyond a few tier-three data releases.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Switzerland<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The SNB opted against raising interest rates in September as their new forecasts showed inflation below 2% over the forecast horizon, meaning no more tightening is necessary.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The decision obviously came with warnings that hikes could be considered in the future if the data warrants it, as the SNB attempted to put itself into hawkish hold territory, which markets didn\u2019t buy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The SNB is done with rate hikes and the focus now will shift to when the first cut will come. Next week has a few things of note, with the KOF indicator and investor sentiment surveys, and the SNB quarterly bulletin being released.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>China<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The only data to watch will be total industrial profits for August which are forecasted to contract at a slower pace of -10% y\/y from -15.5% y\/y in July.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>India<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Q2 current account and external debt data will be released on Friday. The current account deficit is expected to shrink marginally to $1 billion from $1.3 billion recorded in Q1.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The Indian rupee has been resilient against the strength of the US dollar against other emerging currencies in the past three months. The USD\/INR has been trading in a tight range of 175 pips and capped below its October 2022 high of 83.28.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Australia<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Two key data releases to be aware of this week. Firstly, the monthly CPI for August will be out on Wednesday, and after a deceleration to 4.9% in the year to July, marking the lowest inflation rate since February 2022, a slight uptick to 5.2% is expected in August.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Secondly, preliminary retail sales for August on Thursday are expected to show a dip to 0.3% m\/m from 0.5% in July.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>New Zealand<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Business confidence data for September is due on Thursday with an improvement to 5 from -3.7 in August expected. That would put an end to 26 consecutive months of negative readings.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Consumer confidence on Friday is expected to slow to 81.5 for September from 85 previously.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Japan<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meeting minutes will be out on Wednesday and market participants will scrutinize the BoJ official\u2019s remarks or expressed views on the state of inflation in Japan as well as any debate on bringing forward the end of negative interest rate policy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">A busy Friday with a slew of data releases. The leading Tokyo core inflation reading (excluding fresh food) is expected to dip to 2.6% y\/y from 2.8%. That would be the third straight month of deceleration in Tokyo\u2019s core inflation. However, the core-core inflation rate (excluding fresh food and energy) is forecasted to remain the same at 2.6% y\/y for September, a 31-year high.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Retail sales for August are expected to dip slightly to 6.6% y\/y from 6.8% in July, Consumer confidence in September is expected to improve to 37 from 36.2 in August.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Singapore<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Inflation data for August will be out on Monday and the core inflation rate is expected to decelerate further to 3.5% y\/y from 3.8% in July. That would be the fourth consecutive month of slowdown. Meanwhile, the headline inflation rate is expected to be almost unchanged at 4% y\/y in August versus 4.1% in July.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">August\u2019s industrial production figures will be released on Tuesday with another month of contraction expected at a higher magnitude of -3.1% y\/y from -0.9% in July. That would mark eleven straight months of contraction suggesting a sticky weak external demand environment.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Economic Calendar<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Saturday, Sept. 23<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Economic Data\/Events<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">78th session of the UN General Assembly (plenary) continues<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">German Chancellor Scholz attends SPD campaign events in Nuremberg and Hesse<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Sunday, Sept. 24<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Economic Data\/Events<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Austrian Chancellor Nehammer opens Salzburg Europe Summit<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Monday, Sept. 25<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Economic Data\/Events<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Germany IFO business climate<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Singapore CPI<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">IAEA General Conference starts in Vienna<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">RBA Assistant Governor Jones speaks on financial technology and climate change<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Fed\u2019s Kashkari participates in Q&amp;A at the University of Pennsylvania\u2019s Wharton School.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">ECB\u2019s Villeroy speaks on monetary policy and macroeconomics at the Paris conference<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">EU industry ministers meet in Brussels<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">German Chancellor Scholz and Economy Minister Habeck attend the national aerospace conference<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">European Budget Commissioner Hahn and Austrian Finance Minister Brunner speak at the Salzburg Europe Summit<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Tuesday, Sept. 26<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Economic Data\/Events<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">US new home sales, Conference Board consumer confidence<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Mexico international reserves<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Singapore industrial production<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">ECB\u2019s Holzmann speaks at Bloomberg event in Vienna<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">ECB\u2019s Lane speaks on monetary policy and macroeconomics at the Paris conference<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Spanish Parliament begins debate on the new prime minister. Vote to occur on Sept. 27th<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">German Chancellor Scholz speaks at the annual meeting of the German Society for International Cooperation<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">German Economy Minister Habeck speaks at the BDI climate conference<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Wednesday, Sept. 27<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Economic Data\/Events<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">US durable goods<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">China industrial profits<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Mexico trade<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Russia unemployment, industrial production<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Thailand rate decision: Expected to raise rates 25bps to 2.50%<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Bank of Japan issues minutes of July\u2019s policy meeting<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">French government reveals 2024 budget<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Foreign ministers of Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Czechia, and Hungary hold a briefing in Vienna<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Thursday, Sept. 28<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Economic Data\/Events<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">US initial jobless claims, GDP<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Australia retail sales<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Germany CPI<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Mexico unemployment, rate decision<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Spain CPI<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell hosts town hall meeting<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Fed\u2019s Barkin dinner speech on monetary policy outlook at Money Marketeers of NYU<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Fed\u2019s Goolsbee speaks at Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">South African Reserve Bank issues quarterly bulletin<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">German Chancellor Scholz, Belgian Prime Minister De Croo, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink attend the Berlin Global Dialogue<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Riksbank Deputy Governor Flod\u00e9n speaks at Svenska Kreditf\u00f6reningen\u2019s autumn conference<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">IEA\u2019s Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Summit in Paris<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Austrian energy regulator\u2019s gas chief Millgramm speaks at the Montel Energy Day conference<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Friday, Sept. 29<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Economic Data\/Events<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">US consumer spending, wholesale inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Caixin services PMI<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Czech Republic GDP<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Eurozone CPI<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">France CPI<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Germany unemployment<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Hong Kong retail sales<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Italy CPI<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Poland CPI<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">South Africa trade balance<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Thailand trade<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">UK GDP<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">China\u2019s \u2018Golden Week\u2019 holiday begins from Sept. 29 to Oct. 8<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">ECB President Lagarde speaks in Paris at an event on the energy transition<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Fed\u2019s Williams speaks at the Long Island Association<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Helsinki Security Forum begins<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Sovereign Rating Updates<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Portugal (Fitch)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Turkey (S&amp;P)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Original Post<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Editor&#8217;s Note:<\/strong> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4636868-week-ahead-us-and-eurozone-inflation-fed-speak-bank-of-japan-minutes?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US It will be a busy week filled with a wide range of economic releases, with the focus falling on the consumer and the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge. August personal income is expected to rise given the strong labor market while spending cooled given the end of summer vacations. The bond market will pay extremely [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25243,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-64416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Week Ahead \u2013 U.S. And Eurozone Inflation, Fed Speak, Bank Of Japan Minutes | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US It will be a busy week filled with a wide range of economic releases, with the focus falling on the consumer and the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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