{"id":6381,"date":"2023-05-09T16:44:58","date_gmt":"2023-05-09T20:44:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/banking\/regional-bank-turmoil-in-the-u-s-is-far-from-over\/"},"modified":"2023-05-09T16:44:58","modified_gmt":"2023-05-09T20:44:58","slug":"regional-bank-turmoil-in-the-u-s-is-far-from-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=6381","title":{"rendered":"Regional Bank Turmoil In The U.S. Is Far From Over"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Interest rate hikes by key central banks around the world and tightening credit conditions will put pressure on U.S. regional banks\u2019 capital, credit quality, and profitability. Globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) are benefiting from the diversity of business lines they have, as well as from the various sources of funding they can access. However, many regional banks, by definition, do not have the asset diversity and funding advantages that G-SIBs enjoy.<\/p>\n

Investors still have not regained trust in regional banks as evidenced by regional bank indices. The S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index, for example, has declined 36% since the beginning of this year. I can understand the desire to blame short-sellers for this decline; yet, banks\u2019 financials are showing that they are still vulnerable to this elevated interest rate environment.<\/p>\n

Weaker Regional Banks\u2019 Financial Performance Expected<\/h3>\n

In a data-rich report released today by Fitch Ratings, \u2018U.S. Banks\u2019 Near-Term Deposit Challenges to Pressure Profitability, Credit and Capital,\u2019 analysts wrote they continue to expect weaker financial performance from banks throughout 2023. Already in November 2022, the Fitch Ratings analysts had changed their outlook on banks from neutral to deteriorating.<\/p>\n

<\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n

While many regional banks have benefitted from rising rates, they are now having to pay depositors more to retain them. Even then, deposits are still declining, albeit at a smaller rate than in March. To keep deposits and to attract new ones, banks\u2019 net interest margins will decline at many regional banks, since their interest expenses will continue to rise.<\/p>\n

Even when the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, they are still high enough to pressure banks\u2019 earnings. On May 5th<\/sup>, for example, Fitch Ratings put PacWest Bancorp
\n PACW
\n <\/fbs-ticker> on ratings watch \u2018negative,\u2019 in large part because of pressure on the bank\u2019s earnings.<\/p>\n

Also of concern is that most banks, including G-SIBs, raised their loan loss provisions in anticipation of deteriorating economic conditions. While this is prudent risk management, this also puts pressure on their profitability. Most banks\u2019 loan portfolios are still of reasonably good credit quality. Yet, with rates as high as they are, I am expecting default rates to rise both for consumers and companies. When borrowers default, banks must charge off those loans and take the loss on their earnings.<\/p>\n

Understandably, with vacancy rates in office, there is significant concern about banks\u2019 exposures to commercial real estate loans. While I share that concern, I am also still concerned about banks\u2019 significant exposures to very leveraged companies. As I have written for Forbes in numerous columns, company executives have taken advantage of the relatively low interest rate environment from 2000-2021 to borrow at record levels. With rising rates, many of these companies are not going to be able to pay back their loans.<\/p>\n

Keep An Eye On Bank Capital<\/h3>\n

Until now banks common equity Tier I, the highest quality capital to help banks sustain unexpected losses, has been higher than the minimum regulatory requirement. Yet, when a bank like PacWest announces a decrease in dividend payments, it tells me that it is trying to shore up its capital. Declining bank stock prices makes it harder for regional banks to raise capital.<\/p>\n

As I have seen during multiple financial and sovereign crises during my career, banks should never be complacent with about their capital or liquidity levels. From where I sit, I am not seeing credible signals that the regional banking turmoil is anywhere near over. I can hardly wait to be able to say differently.<\/p>\n

Other Recent Articles By <\/strong>This Author<\/strong>:<\/strong><\/p>\n

PacWest Bancorp\u2019s Imminent Demise Shows Bank Turmoil Is Widening To Smaller Banks<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve\u2019s Interest Rate Increases Create Default Risk In Major Sectors<\/p>\n

With First Republic Takeover, JPMorgan Is America\u2019s Most Globally Systemically Important Bank<\/p>\n

To Know Why Silicon Valley Bank Failed, Congress Should Ask Former CEO Greg Becker<\/p>\n

First Republic Bank\u2019s Earnings Call Did Not Inspire Confidence<\/p>\n

First Republic Bank\u2019s Financial Ratios Will Reveal Serious Trouble<\/p>\n

Regional Banks\u2019 Financial Results Fail To Impress Investors<\/p>\n

What To Watch For With U.S. Regional Banks This Week<\/p>\n

Big U.S. Banks Are Preparing For An Impending Recession<\/p>\n

Investors Eyes Should Be On Leveraged Finance Markets<\/p>\n

Deutsche Bank Should Disclose Its Current Liquidity Levels To Investors<\/p>\n

From Ferdinand Marcos To Russian Oligarchs, Troubled Credit Suisse Is A Repeat Offender<\/p>\n

How Trump\u2019s Deregulation Sowed the Seeds for Silicon Valley Bank\u2019s Demise<\/p>\n

Warning Signals About Silicon Valley Bank Were All Around Us<\/p>\n

High Interest Rates Will Continue To Challenge Most Sectors Of The Economy<\/p>\n

Leveraged Loan Default Volume In The U.S. Has Tripled This Year<\/p>\n

Probability Of Default Is Rising For High Yield Bonds And Leveraged Loans<\/p>\n

The U.S. Leveraged Finance Market Is At A Record $3 Trillion<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Interest rate hikes by key central banks around the world and tightening credit conditions will put pressure on U.S. regional banks\u2019 capital, credit quality, and profitability. Globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) are benefiting from the diversity of business lines they have, as well as from the various sources of funding they can access. However, many […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6382,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[237],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-6381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nRegional Bank Turmoil In The U.S. Is Far From Over | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Interest rate hikes by key central banks around the world and tightening credit conditions will put pressure on U.S. regional banks\u2019 capital, credit\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=6381\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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