{"id":63602,"date":"2023-09-20T15:50:39","date_gmt":"2023-09-20T19:50:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/will-walgreens-stock-rebound-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-level-of-over-50\/"},"modified":"2023-09-20T15:50:42","modified_gmt":"2023-09-20T19:50:42","slug":"will-walgreens-stock-rebound-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-level-of-over-50","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=63602","title":{"rendered":"Will Walgreens Stock Rebound To Its Pre-Inflation Shock Level Of Over $50?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/WBA\/\">Walgreens stock<\/strong> (NYSE: WBA) currently trades at $22 per share, nearly 60% below the level seen in March 2021, and it appears undervalued. WBA stock was trading at around $38 in early June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing rates, and is now 40% below that level, compared to 18% gains for the S&amp;P 500 during this period. This underperformance of Walgreens stock can be attributed to slowing sales growth, partly due to a decline in Covid-19 testing and vaccination demand. Its profitability has also been adversely impacted in the recent past due to opioid-related settlements.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, WBA stock has had a Sharpe Ratio of <strong>-0.6<\/strong> since early 2017, which is much lower than <strong>0.6<\/strong> for the S&amp;P 500 Index over the same period. This compares with the <strong>Sharpe of 1.3<\/strong> for the Trefis Reinforced Value portfolio. Sharpe is a measure of return per unit of risk, and high-performance portfolios can provide the best of both worlds.<\/p>\n<p>Returning to the pre-inflation shock level of over $57 means that WBA stock will have to gain more than 150% from here, and we don\u2019t think this will materialize anytime soon. That said, WBA stock looks undervalued at its current price of $22. We estimate <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/WBA\/no-login-required\/hrStby4K\/Walgreens-WBA-Valuation-Is-WBA-Stock-Expensive-Or-Cheap-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230920\">Walgreens\u2019 valuation<\/strong> to be around $32 per share, over 45% above its current market price.<\/p>\n<p>Our detailed analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/WBA\/no-login-required\/VS2CWRZC\/Walgreens-Boots-Alliance-During-2008-Recession-vs-2022-Inflation-Shock-WBA-Stock-Has-156-Upside-If-It-Recovers-To-Pre-Inflation-Shock-Levels-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230920\">Walgreens\u2019 upside post-inflation shock<\/strong> captures trends in the company\u2019s stock during the turbulent market conditions seen over 2022. It compares these trends to the stock\u2019s performance during the 2008 recession.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p><strong>2022 Inflation Shock<\/strong>Timeline of Inflation Shock So Far:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2020 \u2013 early 2021: Increase in money supply to cushion the impact of lockdowns led to high demand for goods; producers unable to match up.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2021: Shipping snarls and worker shortages from the coronavirus pandemic continue to hurt supply.<\/li>\n<li>April 2021: Inflation rates cross 4% and increase rapidly.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2022: Energy and food prices spike due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fed begins its rate hike process.<\/li>\n<li>June 2022: Inflation levels peak at 9% \u2013 the highest level in 40 years. The S&amp;P 500 index declined more than 20% from peak levels.<\/li>\n<li>July \u2013 September 2022: Fed hikes interest rates aggressively \u2013 resulting in an initial recovery in the S&amp;P 500 followed by another sharp decline.<\/li>\n<li>Since October 2022: Fed continues rate hike process; improving market sentiments help S&amp;P500 recoup some of its losses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In contrast, here\u2019s how WBA stock and the broader market performed during the 2007\/2008 crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>10\/1\/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>9\/1\/2008 \u2013 10\/1\/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9\/15\/08)<\/li>\n<li>3\/1\/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>12\/31\/2009: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9\/1\/2008)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Walgreens and S&amp;P 500 Performance During 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>WBA stock declined from nearly $27 in September 2007 (pre-crisis peak) to $17 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying it lost nearly 40% of its pre-crisis value. It recovered post the 2008 crisis to levels of around $26 in early 2010, rising 56% between March 2009 and January 2010. The S&amp;P 500 Index saw a decline of 51%, falling from levels of 1,540 in September 2007 to 757 in March 2009. It then rallied 48% between March 2009 and January 2010 to reach levels of 1,124.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Walgreens\u2019 Fundamentals Over Recent Years<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/WBA\/no-login-required\/wbf6UWRE\/Walgreens-Boots-Alliance-Revenue?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230920\">Walgreens\u2019 revenue<\/strong> increased from $120 billion in fiscal 2019 (fiscal ends in August) to $133 billion in fiscal 2022, partly due to increased Covid-19 vaccine and testing contributions. However, the sales growth has slowed in recent quarters due to a weakening consumer spending environment. Walgreens\u2019 operating margin contracted from 5.2% in 2019 to 1.6% in 2022, partly due to its opioid-related settlements. Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/WBA\/no-login-required\/ezXwmJhU\/Walgreens-Boots-Alliance-WBA-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230920\">Walgreens Operating Income Comparison<\/strong> dashboard has more details. The company\u2019s earnings stood at $5.01 on a per-share and reported basis in 2022, compared to the $4.31 figure in 2019.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Does Walgreens Have A Sufficient Cash Cushion To Meet Its Obligations Through The Ongoing Inflation Shock?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Walgreens\u2019 total debt, including lease obligations, decreased from $40 billion in 2020 to $36 billion in 2022, while its cash, including investments, has hovered around $8 billion over the same period. The company also garnered $4 billion in cash flows from operations in 2023. Walgreens has high debt levels, but with its cash cushion, it appears to be in a position to meet its near-term obligations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the Fed\u2019s efforts to tame runaway inflation rates helping market sentiment, we believe Walgreens stock has the potential for some gains once fears of a potential recession are allayed. That said, unfavorable macroeconomic factors, weak consumer demand, and high debt levels are potential risk factors for realizing these gains.<\/p>\n<p>While WBA stock appears undervalued, it is helpful to see how <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/WBA\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Walgreens\u2019 Peers<\/strong> fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Peer Comparisons<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/09\/20\/will-walgreens-stock-rebound-to-its-pre-inflation-shock-level-of-over-50\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Walgreens stock (NYSE: WBA) currently trades at $22 per share, nearly 60% below the level seen in March 2021, and it appears undervalued. WBA stock was trading at around $38 in early June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing rates, and is now 40% below that level, compared to 18% gains for the S&amp;P [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29233,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-63602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will Walgreens Stock Rebound To Its Pre-Inflation Shock Level Of Over $50? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Walgreens stock (NYSE: WBA) currently trades at $22 per share, nearly 60% below the level seen in March 2021, and it appears undervalued. 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